All opinion done so far shows Ruto is more popular than Raila in western...
Even if we give Raila all luhya votes; Ruto still beat him;
Give him all Ukambani votes; Ruto still beat him.
In 2013 - UhuRuto scored 4 percent in western - that is almost only Sabaot and kikuyu diaspora votes - zero luhya - still UhuRuto won. Kambas did the same. Repeat and rinse. LOST again. 2007 lost again.
People have done these maths; and have given up on perennial loser.
Raila refusal to contest in repeat election marked his political end.
The rest are details.
Today if Uhuru pulls the plug - like he is likely to do - Ruto will win 2022 unopposed
Not that there is any opposition. Babu is doing badly despite state machinery propping him. Once Ruto has hit 50 percent - the rest are irrelevant details.
When it come to Westland - HAVI - has been on the ground - I have been following twitter. He can only have made this move this because UDA is very popular in Nairobi. Tim going for governorship should have seen him stay with Musalia's ANC - but no - UDA is big wave - he has got the message loud and clear.
What Ruto has done is very similar Sonko playbook.... play tribeless class divide and demonstrate seriousness by financing it. Hustler movement started in Nairobi. Such revolution is impossible to beat....Raila is trying everything to copy Hustler Movement but people know he is a fakery...his heart lies with useless BBI.
As for Sakaja - Nairobi will be taken by a Kikuyu this time round. They cannot go forgo PORK and Nairobi Governor. It's going to be Wanjiru...versus Peter Kenneth or Dennis Waweru..whoever Kamanda think would be ideal poodle...that is why Kamanda is keeping close tabs on poor Jakom...as soon as Raila endorse Kamanda candidate..he can go jump into lake victoria.
On good day - Weta's brother Tim Wanyonyi would win Nairobi - he is liked for his development record. I would vote Tim myself. But given UDA start with solid Wanjiru - wanjiru takes it - as NASA/OKA/Kamanda crew split their votes.
RVHH.... this is where you guys keep lying to yourself that Baba is nothing without Kikuyu hate!! This is what you have been preaching to the Kikuyu Youth in Mt. Kenya that Baba is PORK (President of Republic of Kenya indeed), kimundu etc.... Keep deluding yourself and we love that music. Truth is between Baba and Ruto, Baba is more trusted than Ruto can ever hope to be/achieve (even in his lifetime), and the Luhyas know where to put that trust.
No way Westlands Luhyas will vote UDA. That said huge miscalculation by Havi. In any case, the cosmopolitan Westlands can't countenance a so-called Hustler nightmare, most of those Mhimdis (90%) will vote Baba. So, what is Havi's calculation here?? And don't forget, he would have done better or would have been more appealing if he was on ANC, at least some "woiyee" votes from a couple of Luhyas... explains why Sakaja has already given up hope of any elective seat in Nairobi, he understand the maths better; anyway we understand Havi's move is just opening the way for Musalia's eventual landing at UDA as he is said to be headed there!
Take this to the Bank, the Luhya part of Nairobi (and country-wide) will predominantly/solidly vote for Baba.