1st ever MOAS Mapping - Impossible for Ruto to lose

[patel]

Too early to call but as things stand now Ruto is winning bigly. If Kalonzo joins UDA as it looks now bringing in close to a million votes its game over...

[RV Pundit]

I am considering this....yes most of kenya political analysis and punditry is influenced by tribal sentiments. It's very hard to find political objectivity.

 It has to take a foreigner like http://www.charleshornsby.com/  =  who has studied kenya politics and whose MOAS was to the dot. He got it 54 verus 45. I missed it by getting 53 verus 46.

Pundit,
 You are doing fantastic with your political analysis. Can you make your Map interactive and add Governors, Senators, and all the way down. I see media houses in Kenya are not investing in the scientific-driven political analysis except biased gut-driven BS. I suspect the absence of independent/credible pollsters make it hard to statistically analyze and predict politics in Kenya. I see you are almost getting here!  https://www.270towin.com/ ; https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

I got to interrogate Hornsby's site, and it is exemplary in objectivity.  Such folk should replace those tribal-based cum gut-feeling-based analysts on national TV. Dismas Mokua, Herman Manyora, Mutahi Odwido 'Ngunyi', Mark Bichaci, Kipchumba Karori, and others seem unable to disassociate from tribe and region when analyzing politics.

[GeeMail]

RVHH what are you spewing? Pundit math is tribal first then second. Same difference except decibel of grand delusion.

[RV Pundit]

Kenya politics is tribal. It therefore require very good understanding of tribal tapestry of kenya. There are of course swing regions without tribal candidates.

RVHH what are you spewing? Pundit math is tribal first then second. Same difference except decibel of grand delusion.

[RV Pundit]

Charles has Ph.d in Kenya politics and is very very good.

He is written a must read book to understand kenya politics -  Kenya history since independence.

"result of 27 years of research and immersion in. Kenya's politics, economy, and society,"

I got to interrogate Hornsby's site, and it is exemplary in objectivity.  Such folk should replace those tribal-based cum gut-feeling-based analysts on national TV. Dismas Mokua, Herman Manyora, Mutahi Odwido 'Ngunyi', Mark Bichaci, Kipchumba Karori, and others seem unable to disassociate from tribe and region when analyzing politics.

[GeeMail]

Just a book make him better than Mutahi Ngunyi, Pro Manyora or Dismas? Kenya politricks hard to understand. Cannot write a book making sense for how known thieves run office. Which rule book is that? Unless tragicomedy.

[RV Pundit]

None of those jokers have studied Kenya politics.

Kenya politics is easy to read and understand if you have studied it deeply like Charles Horsnby

Kenya: A History Since Independence
November 2011

Just a book make him better than Mutahi Ngunyi, Pro Manyora or Dismas? Kenya politricks hard to understand. Cannot write a book making sense for how known thieves run office. Which rule book is that? Unless tragicomedy.

[GeeMail]

None of those jokers have studied Kenya politics.

Kenya politics is easy to read and understand if you have studied it deeply like Charles Horsnby

Kenya: A History Since Independence
November 2011

Just a book make him better than Mutahi Ngunyi, Pro Manyora or Dismas? Kenya politricks hard to understand. Cannot write a book making sense for how known thieves run office. Which rule book is that? Unless tragicomedy.

Kenyan politrics is not hasola tricks. Hasola phenomenon unheard of and new like school fires in Kenya. No existing document.

[RV Pundit]

In that - Charles Hornsby writes -

Although not loved, Ruto's harder-edged grassroots focused narrative and clear, decisive leadership is appealing to many Kenyans and unless his opponents can "pull a rabbit from a hat" by reactivating and then delivering constitutional change via the stalled BBI (which would roll the dice once more in unpredictable ways), Ruto's chances look good.
http://www.charleshornsby.com/kenya-blog

Like me he also predict some violence in RV

 This is assuming that the elections were free and fair, which cannot be taken for granted. And if Ruto were rigged out (hard to do, but not impossible), I believe parts of the Rift Valley would burn.

Kenyan politrics is not hasola tricks. Hasola phenomenon unheard of and new like school fires in Kenya. No existing document.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

In that - Charles Hornsby writes -

Although not loved, Ruto's harder-edged grassroots focused narrative and clear, decisive leadership is appealing to many Kenyans and unless his opponents can "pull a rabbit from a hat" by reactivating and then delivering constitutional change via the stalled BBI (which would roll the dice once more in unpredictable ways), Ruto's chances look good.
http://www.charleshornsby.com/kenya-blog

Like me he also predict some violence in RV

 This is assuming that the elections were free and fair, which cannot be taken for granted. And if Ruto were rigged out (hard to do, but not impossible), I believe parts of the Rift Valley would burn.

Kenyan politrics is not hasola tricks. Hasola phenomenon unheard of and new like school fires in Kenya. No existing document.

I don't think anybody disputes violence erupting when rigging is involved. I think UDA will protect and ensure UDA's eyes are on every polling station; that is why Ruto wants UDA to participate in every local election. Even Bondo, too, will have UDA candidates!

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

 I don't think anybody disputes violence erupting when rigging is involved. I think UDA will protect and ensure UDA's eyes are on every polling station; that is why Ruto wants UDA to participate in every local election. Even Bondo, too, will have UDA candidates!

[RV Pundit]

Yes, Luo Nyanza and remote areas are only areas likely to see rigging, if UDA do not have presence. Rigging unless brazen like Kibaki (kidnapping returning officers and manually changing the results) - such kind of rigging is now not possible with Maina Kia rulling making presiding officer final

Low level rigging can still happen through local collusion - although biometric will show up any top ups - typically 98 percent of votes should be identified by Biometric. Ruto's UDA need to have 1,500 ward reps - in all ward reps - agents in all the 50K plus - and finally intelligence on what Raila is planning.

This is assuming hostile Uhuru who goes for the broke...

I don't think anybody disputes violence erupting when rigging is involved. I think UDA will protect and ensure UDA's eyes are on every polling station; that is why Ruto wants UDA to participate in every local election. Even Bondo, too, will have UDA candidates!

[GeeMail]

Yes, Luo Nyanza and remote areas are only areas likely to see rigging, if UDA do not have presence. Rigging unless brazen like Kibaki (kidnapping returning officers and manually changing the results) - such kind of rigging is now not possible with Maina Kia rulling making presiding officer final

Low level rigging can still happen through local collusion - although biometric will show up any top ups - typically 98 percent of votes should be identified by Biometric. Ruto's UDA need to have 1,500 ward reps - in all ward reps - agents in all the 50K plus - and finally intelligence on what Raila is planning.

This is assuming hostile Uhuru who goes for the broke...

I don't think anybody disputes violence erupting when rigging is involved. I think UDA will protect and ensure UDA's eyes are on every polling station; that is why Ruto wants UDA to participate in every local election. Even Bondo, too, will have UDA candidates!

How did they do it 2013-2017? Charles Hornsby only one of many voices.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Yes, Luo Nyanza and remote areas are only areas likely to see rigging, if UDA do not have presence. Rigging unless brazen like Kibaki (kidnapping returning officers and manually changing the results) - such kind of rigging is now not possible with Maina Kia rulling making presiding officer final

Low level rigging can still happen through local collusion - although biometric will show up any top ups - typically 98 percent of votes should be identified by Biometric. Ruto's UDA need to have 1,500 ward reps - in all ward reps - agents in all the 50K plus - and finally intelligence on what Raila is planning.

This is assuming hostile Uhuru who goes for the broke...

I don't think anybody disputes violence erupting when rigging is involved. I think UDA will protect and ensure UDA's eyes are on every polling station; that is why Ruto wants UDA to participate in every local election. Even Bondo, too, will have UDA candidates!

If Uhuru had nurtured and maintained Jubilee, the party would be the most robust institution North of Limpopo by now. DP in 2012-2013 proposed the idea of having Jubilee candidates in every ward win or lose. Uhuru signed on, and by 2016-2017 Jubilee was a force to reckon with. From 2018 to now, with his hidden agenda to destroy Jubilee, Uhuru started curtailing and weakening Jubilee in fielding candidates. This was a significant setback, and actually, one of the reasons Uhuru and DP parted ways quietly. A lot of people invested in Jubilee, by DP invested the most because he was looking into the future- only to be destroyed later. Thank God it seems like UDA is almost there again. If UDA forms the government, you will see President Ruto campaigning aggressively for UDA' s MCA's, women rep, MPs and other all over Kenya, even in enemy territory. That was Ruto's dream of Jubilee!