1st ever MOAS Mapping - Impossible for Ruto to lose

[RV Pundit]

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This worse Ruto can do - 50%. This with Ruto at 60 percent of GEMA. He wins 8 million votes out expected 16m.

I will refine mapping and the figures this weekend

[GeeMail]

This other side of violence threat. Say he cannot lose then if he lose chalkface violence.

[Fairandbalanced]

[Fairandbalanced]

[RV Pundit]

I did this in 2005, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2017 - and will do it for 2022. I analyze politics for fun of it. Dont hate the facts - hate the players.

This other side of violence threat. Say he cannot lose then if he lose chalkface violence.

[RV Pundit]

There is only one way to beat Ruto - unite all the oppositions (OKA plus Raila) plus Uhuru has to pull all stop to pull GEMA at least 30-40 percent of GEMA to Raila- anything else is not gonna work.

Ruto has managed to get both GEMA and Non-GEMA on his base.

If Raila continues to become anathema in Mt kenya - his candidature becomes impossible.
If Raila doesnt win ALL NASA stronghold back - his candidature becomes impossible.

For Ruto it's very simple. Get at least 60 percent of GEMA (realistic he is doing 80 percent).
Get Kalenjin and all former Jubilee zones. He is doing well in former Jubilee Zones except for Gusii and part of NEP (that traditionally relie on gov on power for relief food).
Then increase votes in places where Uhuru did badly - like Coast, Matusa and Western. He is doing well in Turkana, Narok, Kwale, Taita Taveta, Bungoma and Tranzoia.

Ruto if he wins any of OKA principles means Raila candidature is dead on arrival.

Another thing - OKA guys may become irrelevant - this going to disadvantage Raila (He need Strong OKA) - because right now Ukambani might split into 3 camps (Raila, Kalonzo, Ruto in almost 1/3 ratio); Western looks likely to split into 1/3 - again with slight variation.

With OKA severely weakened - Ruto wins in 1st round.

It's probably better if Raila adopt the 2020 OKA strategy where Kalonzo defend Ukambani, MaDVD/Weta defend Western - that mean playing for second round. That strategy saw Ruto lose Matunga, Kabuchai and Machakos. But if Raila cannibalizes OKA like he is trying to do - and Ruto is also busy cannibalizing them - then guess who is the loser - Raila. Ruto will get his 25 percent of OKA zone.Raila his 25 percent and Kalonzo-MaDVD will both get 50 percent of their stronghold- combined end up about or less than 10 percent of the vote. Ruto cross the 50 percent like Uhuru did in 2013 - barely.

As for turnout - we will have very low turnout - unless something changes - the registration of votes was disappointing 1.5m instead of expected 4-6m.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Even with UHURU and OKA Principals unite, I doubt Ruto can be defeated. I have my reasons that will come clear in April-may. If it gets tough a long the way, the strategy will change,and yes It is possible to fund every hustler household in Kenya strategically. Money talks and bullshit walks!

[RV Pundit]

Even with UHURU and OKA Principals unite, I doubt Ruto can be defeated. I have my reasons that will come clear in April-may. If it gets tough a long the way, the strategy will change,and yes It is possible to fund every hustler household in Kenya strategically. Money talks and bullshit walks!

Yes money is big factor and Ruto has decided to go for the broke....

[Nowayhaha]

Ruto is the 5th President with or without MOAS. The rrason is simple. Raila is running and with Raila running . GEMA as they have done since 2007,2013 and 2017 will wake ip very early to Vote against Raila. Its simple science the same thing which made Kibaki  releclected in 2007 and made Uhuru President in 2013 and win im 2017.
Now the only way to defeat Ruto even a STD 3 child knows this is for Raila to Tosha someone else but as long as Raila is on the ballot wait for September 2022 amd Nyanzans will be crying for Kenya to split again like they did in 2017.

[Fairandbalanced]

[Fairandbalanced]

Ruto  will not be the next president in Kenya, start the war right now.

[Nowayhaha]

You said the same about Uhuru in 2013  he ended ruling for 10 years half of it with his opponents Raila support .
In regards to violence we know who has always been refusing to accept results its Raila in 2007, 2013 and 2017. We expect him to refuse 2022 outcome .

Ruto  will not be the next president in Kenya, start the war right now.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Ruto  will not be the next president in Kenya, start the war right now.

In the unfortunate event Ruto loses, he will concede defeat and congratulate the winner the same night, or the next day, unlike Raila, who has never accepted defeat. At the 50s, DP will have three other opportunities to run in the future. This is his first try, and he is already shaking everybody to the last nerve.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

No true; Raila wants a bloated Government and handouts, while DP'UDA wants a lean and efficient Government, less taxes by expanding the tax base by empowering small businesses to thrive.

[Njuri Ncheke]

This worse Ruto can do - 50%. This with Ruto at 60 percent of GEMA. He wins 8 million votes out expected 16m.

I will refine mapping and the figures this weekend

Quite impressive but that is at the lowest mlima will be minimum 70% for Ruto. Generally I put Ruto at 57 % nationally first round if baba is running.

[RV Pundit]

Rvhh knows Ruto deeply.What I know Ruto is go getter and courageous.He stops at nothing until he gets it done.If it mean working for 20 hours per day he will..he doesn't suffer fools or lazy people.If Ruto become pork Kenya will scale heights..but I pity his cabinet and gov official..they will be in office by 6 am until midnight..Ruto is being nice now but when it come to work...Ruto work ethic is very admirable.For now I pity old Raila..he will know what hit MOI.Uhuru I warned him that he should take Ruto only if he was willing to go full length..Ruto is a rare leader that comes once in a blue moon.Its still possible for Ruto to win two third majority that will give him the requisite power to execute ground breaking stuff.Kenya in 10yrs will overtake South Africa with Ruto...he is our meles, museveni and kagame combined... brilliant hardworking passionate leaders

[RV Pundit]

It's 8 in the evening Ruto still doing rallies in gatundu north...if I was Raila I will skip 2022.. Ruto is a beast.Like rvhh explained if necessary to visit all the 50k polling stations or even 12 million 🏠 in door to door campaign..Ruto will do it.My late father got sold to Ruto in 2009 after he met at 6 Amin the morning and fix their tea issues...many of our division became wealthy after Ruto single morning phone call.

[GeeMail]

Rvhh knows Ruto deeply.What I know Ruto is go getter and courageous.He stops at nothing until he gets it done.If it mean working for 20 hours per day he will..he doesn't suffer fools or lazy people.If Ruto become pork Kenya will scale heights..but I pity his cabinet and gov official..they will be in office by 6 am until midnight..Ruto is being nice now but when it come to work...Ruto work ethic is very admirable.For now I pity old Raila..he will know what hit MOI.Uhuru I warned him that he should take Ruto only if he was willing to go full length..Ruto is a rare leader that comes once in a blue moon.Its still possible for Ruto to win two third majority that will give him the requisite power to execute ground breaking stuff.Kenya in 10yrs will overtake South Africa with Ruto...he is our meles, museveni and kagame combined... brilliant hardworking passionate leaders

At first claimed high priest sleep walking to state house now hugely desperate. Whats he doing in Gatundu at night then?

[RV Pundit]

Rvhh knows Ruto deeply.What I know Ruto is go getter and courageous.He stops at nothing until he gets it done.If it mean working for 20 hours per day he will..he doesn't suffer fools or lazy people.If Ruto become pork Kenya will scale heights..but I pity his cabinet and gov official..they will be in office by 6 am until midnight..Ruto is being nice now but when it come to work...Ruto work ethic is very admirable.For now I pity old Raila..he will know what hit MOI.Uhuru I warned him that he should take Ruto only if he was willing to go full length..Ruto is a rare leader that comes once in a blue moon.Its still possible for Ruto to win two third majority that will give him the requisite power to execute ground breaking stuff.Kenya in 10yrs will overtake South Africa with Ruto...he is our meles, museveni and kagame combined... brilliant hardworking passionate leaders

At first claimed high priest sleep walking to state house now hugely desperate. Whats he doing in Gatundu at night then?

Ruto is no the guy to settle with 50 Percent plus one if he did he would long have been satisfied in 20s when he hit jackpot...Ruto want 70 percent..next election he wants 90 percent...Ruto is never satisfied..Ruto is multi billionaire but works harder than a poor guy..those rare people..driven by higher ideals

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Pundit,
 You are doing fantastic with your political analysis. Can you make your Map interactive and add Governors, Senators, and all the way down. I see media houses in Kenya are not investing in the scientific-driven political analysis except biased gut-driven BS. I suspect the absence of independent/credible pollsters make it hard to statistically analyze and predict politics in Kenya. I see you are almost getting here!  https://www.270towin.com/ ; https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/