Tigray taking over Ethiopia

[KenyanPlato]

US won't intervene militarily. They will just put pressure for diplomatic solution. If no solution they will just keep on pressure to make sure no one commits genocide. The days of usa interventions are long gone.  This my read on it.

[RV Pundit]

Troops on ground of course no. They just ended a disaster in Afgan. What they will do is impose sanctions on Adis. If Abiy continue with drone attack - they will seek to impose non fly zone - and also to arm Tigray through Egypt and Sudan esp with Anti-Air missiles. Once Tigrays have figured out how to stop Abiy bombs - it will be an equal war.

US won't intervene militarily. They will just put pressure for diplomatic solution. If no solution they will just keep on pressure to make sure no one commits genocide. The days of usa interventions are long gone.  This my read on it.

[Njuri Ncheke]

Tigray has done very well for a population that is 6 percent and is really hated by other Ethiopias. Yes I agree that Afar also have fearsome reputation as fighters. Meru nobody fears you - not any of your neighbeours - use the machetes to weed farms

Tigray had a good plan - that seem to have unraveled with drone attack and of course local population opposition. Now for Tigrays to relaunch attack - they have to figure out how to deal with ENDF airforce.

Maybe they will ask US and the UN to impose no fly zone or something like that if they cry genocide against their people. They have already made a good case.

If they cannot impose a NO FLY Zone - on Ethiopia - then Tigray forces will need very serious anti-air missiles. Either way as China prop Abiy - the US need to prop Tigray and stop this attempted genocide against a minority by combined gov of Ethiopia and Eritrea.

I am still for Tigray forces to prevail
1) Abiy is a.hole who started a senseless war and
2) Abiy together with Eritrea and 90m Ethiopias are basically on a genocide mission on the minority tigray for the crimes of TPLF regime of Meles Zenawi.

Finally I am going to always back a underdog. What is there to back a big bully like Abbiy.

If a No Fly Zone is imposed - and arm sales to Ethipia banned - TDF will take a month to do another run for Adis.

You penned your tigray hopes on western disinformation campaigns,there was no threat of Tigray taking addis from a military perspective only scaremongering. Its simple when tigray went for the neck their fate was sealed.
Most importantly is that tigray have lost huge number of fighters and equipment they won't recover from  this soon it was a fatal blow while Abiy can draw on the endless amounts of fighters from Afar, Amhara and Oromo. Actually Afar fighters proved to be the main turning point in this war tigray venture s into afar region were disastrous thousands killed in the arid plains. Afar are actually the martial class they have a fearsome reputation more than Tigray. I would say they are like Merus quick tempered and fearless,they ended rigray dreams.
Howeve what i predict is Abiy will continue to blockade and weaken, increase drone strikes in Tigray  as his forces consolidates all gains made,refit and replenish,then will try to launch a full offensive in tigray, already western tigray is in hands of Amhara fano who have caused all kinds of problems there. But this will be a drawn out war in tigray.

Continue burying your head in the sand. Tigray(kalenjin ) bit more than they can chew,this is not the 90s son. If the military doctrine you applying here is what the kalenjin worriers do then its really funny and ridiculous. Try that in 2022 and you will experience first hand the pain of the bullet. Mark you tigray had all heavy equipment while you just have arrows. My friend kalenjin will be liquidated we will deal with you perpendicularly

[RV Pundit]

Tigray are not cowards who will back out - in real fighting - retreats are part of the game - in fact unlike Ethiopa gov that lost half it army and weapons in Tigray six months ago - TDF have withdrawn mostly without any fight - that is TACTICAL DISCIPLINE. This is why Merus can never be good fighters - because you're driven by anger like Mkissi . Knowing when to retreat and reducing causalities is very important. this now becomes a war of attrition. Marathon race of war.

Need I remind you how Nandi led the longest resistance in East Africa - the key component - the Nandi warriors possessed the discipline to retreat when the British had the upper hand and to decisive attack when they had the advantage. They were able to keep causalities down - and re-strategize - change the war theatre to where they would have tactical advantages - like in deep gorges.

That is how Nandi warriors - force of about 4,000 warriors - held the British for 15yrs...from 1890 to 1906...ending with death of Nandi top tactician Koitalel

Treat this Tigray withdraw as tactical retreat..NOT A DEFEAT.

The Ethiopia gov is in for a long war....

How is your war doing in Laikipia - KDF/GSU/APs/Kenya Police - Reservist - against a few Pokots. Kalenjin are fearsome fighters my friend. Do not provoke them. Those arrows evicted 600K people in a 3 days. Kibaki called Annan and shared power.

Continue burying your head in the sand. Tigray(kalenjin ) bit more than they can chew,this is not the 90s son. If the military doctrine you applying here is what the kalenjin worriers do then its really funny and ridiculous. Try that in 2022 and you will experience first hand the pain of the bullet. Mark you tigray had all heavy equipment while you just have arrows. My friend kalenjin will be liquidated we will deal with you perpendicularly

[Njuri Ncheke]

Who has told you tigray has retreated without any loses do you listen to your head before posting?I have graphic images of tigray decimated today around kombolcha. This war has costed tigray about 80k fighers.
You take war as a kind of childs play. My friend you have never been in proper war zone to see what you post here as lunacy.
Tigray can never recover soon from the loss of fighters their population is too small for that. They need to dig in and wait for federal forces they cant relaunch counter attacks.
Once bitten twice shy Ethiopians remember how TPLF fought and thats this time they were ready for them and thats why I always tell you. This time Kikuyu are ready for you,go pick the arrows in August 22 and you will see the outcome. You will succeed only in dealing with doadoas inside your majani chai farms.

[RV Pundit]

But I have been following the news too - Maybe there was fighting in Kombolocha...but in many other areas...TDF retreated with almost no fight.

Please provide evidence of Tigray loses - in soldiers and weapons.

So far I have seen 10 tanks loss - and very minimal body loses....almost zero captured soldiers.

You saw how TDF massacred half the Ethiopia army - and took their weapons in June. That was too much of a loss...and now Abiy is depending on militia, rebels and citizens.

Has TDF been defeated of course not; This is just a retreat - to rearm and restrategize.

My friend as for war - dont start on kalenjin - I have seen the amazing traditional war infrastructure...you cannot beat it. If they upgrade weapons....just 1,000 guns...KENYA is over.

I am not aware of any community that can mobilize like Kalenjin can in almost an hour of a war cry - I am talking a millions of people transformed into war machine....each person has a role to play.

Who has told you tigray has retreated without any loses do you listen to your head before posting?I have graphic images of tigray decimated today around kombolcha. This war has costed tigray about 80k fighers.
You take war as a kind of childs play. My friend you have never been in proper war zone to see what you post here as lunacy.
Tigray can never recover soon from the loss of fighters their population is too small for that. They need to dig in and wait for federal forces they cant relaunch counter attacks.
Once bitten twice shy Ethiopians remember how TPLF fought and thats this time they were ready for them and thats why I always tell you. This time Kikuyu are ready for you,go pick the arrows in August 22 and you will see the outcome. You will succeed only in dealing with doadoas inside your majani chai farms.

[Njuri Ncheke]

How I wish we bordered you and your arrows.

[RV Pundit]

You would have done what - come with machete and anger ya mkisii. My friend you can only defend Meru. Kalenjin use to wage wars 150-200KMs away. Our entire society was built on military - we did nothing - except fight and prepare to fight. Our only economic activity was to raid for cattle...nothing more nothing less. NJuri you cannot match Kalenjin in war....Kikuyus have now understood this...they thought Mau Mau war had prepped them...but Kalenjin different kettle fish...a marital society.

Kalenjin apart from few Maasai raids - were never under any attack - in fact an attack on Kalenjin had to come from other kalejin subtribes - but to imagine another tribe launching an attack - yeah they could defend themselves on many kalenjin assaults deep in their areas.

In fact I was speaking to South Sudanase - he told me kalenjin are South sudanse cousin Murle - they are tough cattle thieves.

Some people think Kalenjin were warrior slaves of Kush empire - before we decided to head south with somalis and oromos.

How I wish we bordered you and your arrows.

[RV Pundit]

1) Lost two key towns
2) TDF are saying it's tactical retreat.
3) Drones.

[Njuri Ncheke]

You would have done what - come with machete and anger ya mkisii. My friend you can only defend Meru. Kalenjin use to wage wars 150-200KMs away. Our entire society was built on military - we did nothing - except fight and prepare to fight. Our only economic activity was to raid for cattle...nothing more nothing less. NJuri you cannot match Kalenjin in war....Kikuyus have now understood this...they thought Mau Mau war had prepped them...but Kalenjin different kettle fish...a marital society.

Kalenjin apart from few Maasai raids - were never under any attack - in fact an attack on Kalenjin had to come from other kalejin subtribes - but to imagine another tribe launching an attack - yeah they could defend themselves on many kalenjin assaults deep in their areas.

In fact I was speaking to South Sudanase - he told me kalenjin are South sudanse cousin Murle - they are tough cattle thieves.

Some people think Kalenjin were warrior slaves of Kush empire - before we decided to head south with somalis and oromos.

How I wish we bordered you and your arrows.

Pundit we only know Kalenjin as goat herders and runners nothing else. This illusion of Nandi resistance 200years ago and a few bandits in laikipia making you think you can wage war is delirious. Knock your head and tell me what sound is coming out but again lets wait for Aug 22 and Pray God this time Kikuyu won't have to call us for support because this time we will herd you and your goats to south Sudan where you came from. We are not the cowardly KDF GSU or police. You will feel pain of the panga. Always remember the panga in rwanda left your "hamitic " cousins 1M dead.

[RV Pundit]

Your people are getting a whipping in Laikipia - which is very close to Meru - what are you waiting for - take your sharpen panga - and see if you will survive war.

Running is very essential in war - that is one element that make Kalenjin very good fighters. Other critical aspect that made kalenjin very good warriors is ability to survive on very little meal for a long time. Kalenjin can feed on morsel of honey and meat - and fight you for days. Most of raids would take a week or so - because they were staged many miles away - and to survive you only carried dried meat and honey.

Then incredible patience and mental discipline. KDF are struggling in Laikipia and Westpokot because those guys can fight you for days surviving on honey and waiting until they have the advantage - to attack - and pulling back when they dont.

Pundit we only know Kalenjin as goat herders and runners nothing else. This illusion of Nandi resistance 200years ago and a few bandits in laikipia making you think you can wage war is delirious. Knock your head and tell me what sound is coming out but again lets wait for Aug 22 and Pray God this time Kikuyu won't have to call us for support because this time we will herd you and your goats to south Sudan where you came from. We are not the cowardly KDF GSU or police. You will feel pain of the panga. Always remember the panga in rwanda left your "hamitic " cousins 1M dead.

[Njuri Ncheke]

Lets get back to main topic,you can start another topic "Kalenjin taking over Kenya" If you wish then we will discuss there.
As of now Tigray need to cut their losses and leak their wounds,its still a long war but Tigray region will be devastated ,Abiy will relish just blockading it and letting it rot then finally overun it.

[RV Pundit]

I am very versatile.

Yes on Tigrays - they have to are back to square one - not as bad as Tigray hills beyond Mekelle - but in Woldeya - they should be able to defend their position - the terrain is advantageous - for defensive position.

However having lost the Key highway - that they were using to strangle Adis Ababa - it's their time to be strangled - food/fuel/critical supplies

For now they have to look international aid to match Abiy who has gone shopping for drones from Middle east and China.

Tigrays should make a case to US/Egypt/Sudan to back them - and I am sure they will get arms. They especially need anti-aicraft missiles armed with best radar system - once they bring down a couple of Ethiopia planes - the war will be on parity - it will be down to ground troops.

Secondly considering the huge local population resistance - Tigrays 100K force is not enough to subdue them - they need to mobilize a milllion of soldiers - train them - and move down to almost colonize the Ethiopia regime.

Lets get back to main topic,you can start another topic "Kalenjin taking over Kenya" If you wish then we will discuss there.
As of now Tigray need to cut their losses and leak their wounds,its still a long war but Tigray region will be devastated ,Abiy will relish just blockading it and letting it rot then finally overun it.

[vooke]

I thought Njuri was an idiot but he got it right on Tigray

Pundito and all his big head punditry lost

Of course war is dynamic but don't spew garbage and conviction

This is something he is doing on Ruto

Ruto is way ahead but his lead is not unassailable

[RV Pundit]

The war has not ended. I knew Tigray would beat Ethiopia gov even when Abbiy had carpet bombed Mekelle and send them to the hills for six months. That was last year. As we speak now Tigrays are still deep into Amhara region...and the tactical withdrawal doesnt mean defeat.

As for Raila - continue praying and hoping.

I thought Njuri was an idiot but he got it right on Tigray

Pundito and all his big head punditry lost

Of course war is dynamic but don't spew garbage and conviction

This is something he is doing on Ruto

Ruto is way ahead but his lead is not unassailable

[Njuri Ncheke]

I thought Njuri was an idiot but he got it right on Tigray

Pundito and all his big head punditry lost

Of course war is dynamic but don't spew garbage and conviction

This is something he is doing on Ruto

Ruto is way ahead but his lead is not unassailable

My friend great minds can appear as idiots sometimes. If a million people say a foolish thing,its still a foolish thing to me,When it comes to war tactics that's one area am excellent not like Pundit a know it all.

[Kadudu]

Dessie and Kombolcha have been recaptured by government troops. Tigrayian forces have started retreating. If tactical or not, psychologically it will damp the moral of Tigrayian troops. This is a war that cannot be won by either side. Best is a peace agreement and both sides make a retreat. It seems Abiy is ready to fight to the end, but the question is if the people around him think the same. I have my doubts.

[RV Pundit]

Yes it going to be long drawn war. Tigrays have retreated to the mountains - where it easy to defend positions.

Strategically for Tigray - instead of going to Adis - they need to go to Amhara HQ and capture that first - because Amhara forces are ones propping Abiy.

ENDF is looking north of Dessie already. With eyes set on Kutaber and Hayk as well as Wuchale. After the lowlands are recaptured and the ENDF approaches Woldiya the lines are expected to stabilize more as the terrain toughens and the TDF reorganize.

— Ethiopia Map (@MapEthiopia) December 6, 2021

Dessie and Kombolcha have been recaptured by government troops. Tigrayian forces have started retreating. If tactical or not, psychologically it will damp the moral of Tigrayian troops. This is a war that cannot be won by either side. Best is a peace agreement and both sides make a retreat. It seems Abiy is ready to fight to the end, but the question is if the people around him think the same. I have my doubts.

[Njuri Ncheke]

Tigray CAN'T counter attack now its out of the question and a direct ticket to vaporization. They need dig in consolidate and replenish,they are seriously short of manpower. Abiy has moved cautiously up North to avoid that counter attack so time frame for that is over. If tigray attack it will be now a new start all over.
Abiy on the other side will be doing the same but With an edge, he will use drones and airpower to continue to pound tigray positions and soften them up till when his army is refitted and ready to push into Tigray.
Pundit you lack simple military understanding. Why and how would Tigray go to Amhara HQ to gain what ?? You really cluless. Before thinking that ask yourself what has tigray lost in terms of fighters,officers, territory and equipment to be able to go on offensive

[Nowayhaha]

Confusion galore....Pundit ??Njuri ???

Military expert from the great Mountain Warriors.

We have two camps -
1) ENDF+Amhara and Afara regional forces+militia+pro-gov rebels.
2) TDF plus OLF and other secessionist forces all over Ethiopia.

I believe Tigray/OLF main objective is to force Adis gov either
1) To negotiate for secession - referendum and secession of Tigrays. If Abiy is willing to do that - Tigrays will cut their losses.
2) To take over Adis and then do a referendum.
3) Compromise is for Abiy to forget centralizing power and to decentralize power to federal regions - and make them almost independent. For Ethiopia to become United Republic of Ethiopia - where say Tigray is like Zanzibar and Tanzania..united only in name otherwise Zanzibar run it's own affairs.


So just sitting around in Tigrays or edges is not going to make Abiy negotiate.

For now - they will defend their territories - because they are now back up in mountains ( Terrain is important in war).

They will rebuild their forces - Ethiopia and Amhara+Afar will similarly prepare.

Once they are ready - there will be clash as Tigray forces will push forward.

Do they push forward towards Adis Ababa or do they push forward towards the Amhara region.

If Oromo forces are strong - pushing for Adis Ababa is easy - because of the alliance.

If not - they cannot head to Afar - because it's flat terrain and also Eritreas can easily play there.

So for me - if I was Gen Tsakdan - I would head for Amhara regional HQ and topple their gov - beat the Amhara regional forces -  especially if OLF can push towards Amhara. Then push for Adis from the west side.

I dont think they will repeat the same quick run for Adis (especially with massive anti-tigray sentiments)...the last civil war lasted 16yrs - so expected for a long nasty war.

Your long post is null and void simply because you don't explain where and when Tigray will source for new fighters,officers and new military hardware to launch an offensive before Abiy does, Sorry pundit but you sound like in elementary school  on the other side Abiy has endless resources of the same.
Actually main risk i see for Abiy is religion,if Tigray can stir up a religious war as in Muslims(Turkey,UAE drones) are killing Christian s then maybe they would gain some support.