Author Topic: Tigray taking over Ethiopia  (Read 39691 times)

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Tigray taking over Ethiopia
« Reply #40 on: November 09, 2021, 10:51:19 AM »
When Abbiy attacked civilians and stopped UN from supplying food to starving Tigrayans - he simply lost the moral ground - and US/EU had no option except kick him out.

The next destination for Abbiy is ICC to answer for Crimes Against Humanity and War Crimes.

His laughable attempt to use civilian as human shield is going to unravel on day one when mortar rockets are launched. Civilians will leave their rocks and run back to their house.

Remember already 9 rebel alliances have agreed in Washington DC to attack Adis Gov from all angles. Abbiy is gone. He is probably negotiating for a safe haven.

I saw even Ethiopia Luos are part of the rebel attack Abbiy now.

Be careful of western sponsored propaganda. TPLF is a western stooge and US and Europe want them back. If Ethiopia was going down that easily the rebels would have been in addis already what the west is trying to do is sponsoring panic and fear so that government can collapse. Uhuru gatheca is also being used to weaken Ethiopia but lets see how it goes.
My own analysis as a military historian and what I have gathered is that the TPLF rebels have suffered huge loses in around Wollo areas in attempt to march to addis . OLF Is trying to attack addis As it in oromia but they lack the know how. What to note is Abiy though aloof retains majority of support. Again Idont see TPLF able to capture addis easily this is not the 90s.

Offline gout

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Re: Tigray taking over Ethiopia
« Reply #41 on: November 09, 2021, 10:56:56 AM »
Safaricom swallows the political risk. Abiy fool ought to be hanged for killing the Abyssinian dream.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/corporate/companies/safaricom-evacuates-staff-ethiopia-amid-unrest-3612454
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one ~ Thomas Paine

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: Tigray taking over Ethiopia
« Reply #42 on: November 09, 2021, 05:49:44 PM »
Rv Pundit

Do you have any link to the new of more rebels join TPLF? so what happens once Abiy falls? Does TPLF have enough popular support to hold the  nation together? I understand there are ongoing diplomatic negotiations I wonder if they will work.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Tigray taking over Ethiopia
« Reply #43 on: November 09, 2021, 06:14:14 PM »

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-59175404

Rv Pundit

Do you have any link to the new of more rebels join TPLF? so what happens once Abiy falls? Does TPLF have enough popular support to hold the  nation together? I understand there are ongoing diplomatic negotiations I wonder if they will work.

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: Tigray taking over Ethiopia
« Reply #44 on: November 10, 2021, 12:47:56 AM »
Thanks Pundit. Take time to read comment on this tweet by Zambian president after he evacuated his citizens in ETHIOPIA. Seems Ethiopians are arrogant and hard to take advise. I believe the populace hatred of tplf forced abiy to make this strategic blunder to appease them. However, the tone of the comments on that threads points to a very zenophobic, arrogant people. No wonder mediators have failed

?t=-KeOZ1JezHMkXUTIWcWDBA&s=19

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Tigray taking over Ethiopia
« Reply #45 on: November 10, 2021, 06:19:45 AM »
Ethiopian like Somali are impossible to advice. Their arrogance is world class. US long gave up on Abbiy.
Thanks Pundit. Take time to read comment on this tweet by Zambian president after he evacuated his citizens in ETHIOPIA. Seems Ethiopians are arrogant and hard to take advise. I believe the populace hatred of tplf forced abiy to make this strategic blunder to appease them. However, the tone of the comments on that threads points to a very zenophobic, arrogant people. No wonder mediators have failed

?t=-KeOZ1JezHMkXUTIWcWDBA&s=19

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: Tigray taking over Ethiopia
« Reply #46 on: November 10, 2021, 05:11:04 PM »
Yeah I am getting that from their online comments. Seems this one is a full civil war till one side wins and imposes dictatorship on the other. I think kenyans are generally level headed. Seems Somalis and Ethiopians are more like our nomadic groups militant. This war is really ugly. I was watching videos last night on what happened in Tigray region and it just sad and evil. Abiy went too far. I am not sure he can be allowed to be in power

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Tigray taking over Ethiopia
« Reply #47 on: November 10, 2021, 06:05:12 PM »
Yes it going to be nasty fight; country may divide into somalia like fiefdoms.  We may have Ethiopia, Tigray, Oromia, Ogaden and Gambela countries Yugoslavia style.

Leadership is very important. Let hope kenya next year can negotiate a peaceful transfer of power to Ruto. Raila will take kenya into war....he is reckless.

Yeah I am getting that from their online comments. Seems this one is a full civil war till one side wins and imposes dictatorship on the other. I think kenyans are generally level headed. Seems Somalis and Ethiopians are more like our nomadic groups militant. This war is really ugly. I was watching videos last night on what happened in Tigray region and it just sad and evil. Abiy went too far. I am not sure he can be allowed to be in power

Offline RV Heavy Hitter!

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Re: Tigray taking over Ethiopia
« Reply #48 on: November 10, 2021, 06:58:07 PM »
I wish peace prevail in the end, but I Hope Abby succeed in crushing Tigray and keeping mainstream Ethiopia together.
The future belongs to those who have a quarter of the character and integrity of RV Heavy Hitter!

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Tigray taking over Ethiopia
« Reply #49 on: November 10, 2021, 07:03:40 PM »
Tigray had been crushed; they had been ousted from power; had been kicked out of most areas; they were contend to stay in their little corner; Abbiy miscalculated by trying to literally finish them off; you do not close all the exit and beat a cat.

For now Tigray have upper hand. Abbiy has lost western support. The country is literally broke and on chokehold.

Abiy next destination is the ICC to face war crimes.

I feel for my Amharas friends ; they are very nice people; but their hatred for Tigrays was over the top. Them stopped they from reasoning rationally.

Amharas are so used to dominating Ethiopia - they resent anyone else running it. Oromos see Adis as their grabbed land - just like Maasai.

Amharas resent Meles Zenawi despite him growing economy; They felt that he had given his fellow cousin Tigrays the Eritrea and made Ethiopia landlocked.

I wish peace prevail in the end, but I Hope Abby succeed in crushing Tigray and keeping mainstream Ethiopia together.

Offline Georgesoros

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Re: Tigray taking over Ethiopia
« Reply #50 on: November 10, 2021, 07:06:07 PM »
I wish peace prevail in the end, but I Hope Abby succeed in crushing Tigray and keeping mainstream Ethiopia together.

the man is a moron. He wants to be a dictator.
He has started arresting UN workers - what a moron.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Tigray taking over Ethiopia
« Reply #51 on: November 10, 2021, 07:07:56 PM »
I saw that. He is setting himself up for ICC war crimes and crimes against humanity. The next decision will be for UNSC to order investigation into war crimes and ICC prosecutor will go for him.

He will discover the world is very small when US and western power do not like you.

the man is a moron. He wants to be a dictator.
He has started arresting UN workers - what a moron.

Offline RV Heavy Hitter!

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Re: Tigray taking over Ethiopia
« Reply #52 on: November 10, 2021, 07:10:39 PM »
I wish peace prevail in the end, but I Hope Abby succeed in crushing Tigray and keeping mainstream Ethiopia together.

the man is a moron. He wants to be a dictator.
He has started arresting UN workers - what a moron.
That is not what Ethiopians in diaspora, especially US think. They are almost United in support of Abby and Ethiopian Govt.

« Last Edit: November 10, 2021, 08:07:38 PM by KenyanPlato »
The future belongs to those who have a quarter of the character and integrity of RV Heavy Hitter!

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: Tigray taking over Ethiopia
« Reply #53 on: November 10, 2021, 08:08:01 PM »
I wish peace prevail in the end, but I Hope Abby succeed in crushing Tigray and keeping mainstream Ethiopia together.

the man is a moron. He wants to be a dictator.
He has started arresting UN workers - what a moron.
That is not what Ethiopians in diaspora, especially US think. They are almost United in support of Abby and Ethiopian Govt.
I wish peace prevail in the end, but I Hope Abby succeed in crushing Tigray and keeping mainstream Ethiopia together.

the man is a moron. He wants to be a dictator.
He has started arresting UN workers - what a moron.

And that Abiys biggest fault. He is a leader and should have understood how complex the situation is.,plus I think the Ethiopia diaspora has a romantized idea of a united nation against the excess of past. They are disconnected from reality on the ground. Abiy role was one to create conditions necessary to transition. He decided he was going to be the transition itself and the populace misled his intention. He has now plunged the country into a civil war during a drought.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Tigray taking over Ethiopia
« Reply #54 on: November 10, 2021, 08:15:52 PM »
Tigrays are only 5 percent of Ethiopia - while Amharas and Oromos are 30m each - that huge. So it very unlikely you ever met a Tigray. Tigray were privelleged and sat on the rest. The rest of Ethiopian hate them. They hate them for 30yrs of dictatorship. They hate them for letting go of Eritrea and making Ethiopa landlocked. They hate them for stashing billions abroads. They hate them for dominating the army and civil forces.

But they have allowed their hate to screw them...and now the Tigrays are coming back to sit on them again for 30yrs..Tigrays have experience on sitting on the rest. They have found a good excuse...for tiny elite to come to power.

This was like 2002....Kibaki listened carefully to US and Brig Boinnet...he was told to leave the Kalenjin alone...dont go hard on Moi and company..for their excess.....and kenya will avoid a civil war.

But imagine if Kibaki had gone hard on Kalenjin - after 24yrs of power - and war broke up. Kenya could have gone to civil war.

In fact when Kibaki attempted to summon Moi to appear before Goldenburg...Kalenjin leaders told him NO...they will secede from Kenya if anyone was to touch Moi.

At least by 2007/2008 when Kalenjin waged war - their anger and capacity had dissipated...but if Raila and KIbaki had gone hard on Kalenjin in 2003...by 2004 kenya would been gone.

This is also true for Rwanda - Tutsi small elite will sit on Hutus until Hutus behave - and start looking forward.

Ethiopia attempt to look backward is their undoing. History forget it. Move FORWARD.

Now like Tutsi...Tigrays sees their leadership of Ethiopia as matter of life and death for them....Ethiopia gov has attempted to finish them off...they will not let go easily.

It appear only Mandela understood what moving on meant - did his Truth and Recon..and Boers were happy to let go of power.

That is not what Ethiopians in diaspora, especially US think. They are almost United in support of Abby and Ethiopian Govt.

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: Tigray taking over Ethiopia
« Reply #55 on: November 10, 2021, 08:34:46 PM »
That True Pundit. Even kenyatta offered leadership after mau mau civil war he asked kikuyus to move forward and avoid shedding blood in another civil war among kikuyus. If he had not done so there was going to be a lot of bloodshed in kikuyuland. Look forward we must or be caught up in the problems of the past we are trying to solve.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Tigray taking over Ethiopia
« Reply #56 on: November 10, 2021, 08:38:15 PM »
Precisely. Jomo forgive and forget -made Kenya avoid ZIm - because the Delamares were going to forment trouble. They were going to overthrow Jomo kenyatta through the army and install their own puppet . Kenya also agreeing to purchase land or property was good move - even if British had grabbed it.

This Ethiopia miscalculation is their inability to move forward and their attempt to revenge.

That True Pundit. Even kenyatta offered leadership after mau mau civil war he asked kikuyus to move forward and avoid shedding blood in another civil war among kikuyus. If he had not done so there was going to be a lot of bloodshed in kikuyuland. Look forward we must or be caught up in the problems of the past we are trying to solve.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Tigray taking over Ethiopia
« Reply #57 on: November 11, 2021, 11:34:58 AM »
This video is worth watching. This Ghanian explain Ethiopia crisis like a boss.


Offline Kadudu

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Re: Tigray taking over Ethiopia
« Reply #58 on: November 11, 2021, 12:08:26 PM »
The usual kelele from Pundit. Can you not discuss any topic here without mentioning the name of your demi-god and Raila?
I have not read any where Raila supporters calling for war if their candidate looses the presidential election in 2022. You do it here everyday.

Yes it going to be nasty fight; country may divide into somalia like fiefdoms.  We may have Ethiopia, Tigray, Oromia, Ogaden and Gambela countries Yugoslavia style.

Leadership is very important. Let hope kenya next year can negotiate a peaceful transfer of power to Ruto. Raila will take kenya into war....he is reckless.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Tigray taking over Ethiopia
« Reply #59 on: November 11, 2021, 12:15:01 PM »
War is caused by stupid people without wisdom, political maturity and recklesness.  Like stupid Abiy of Ethiopia is causing pain in his country.

I have given you a very good example - throwing stones and injuring Ruto say in Kisumu - can easily escalate into a civil war. Small action like that can trigger big tribal wars. The tribal wars can trigger division in security forces. And before you know we are in a civil war.

Raila already caused one in 1982 - that luckly lasted less than 24yrs.
I believe Raila will cause war...this not new position...this is my long held position.
I believe he is reckless and would not be able to handle a complex country like Kenya.

You know you take kenya peace for granted...it took lots of wisdom from Kenyattas and Mois to avoid and navigate delicate situations when rest of Africa were going through wars.

The usual kelele from Pundit. Can you not discuss any topic here without mentioning the name of your demi-god and Raila?
I have not read any where Raila supporters calling for war if their candidate looses the presidential election in 2022. You do it here everyday.