As for Muranga - why are most Mps in handshake then? I know it not conclusive indicator but it point to me a 50-50 situation like Nyeri too. Kiambu has gone to UDA almost except for 3 mps.
Yes Kiambu is huge. It exactly as big as entire Coast. However the problem is Ruto cannot appoint a Kikuyu DPORK and then double it down from the same Kiambu. It already bad optics but luckly Raila is also going go for Mt kenya DPORK - so they wont play that card.
Kiambu if Uhuru decides to pour money - and really campaign - will go 50-50 - because 20 percent of it - is non-kikuyu vote - I believe there is more and more migration to Kiambu as it's urbanized and become part of Nairobi.
When all is said and done - Mt kenya without a candidate, as split as it is - and with all confusion - will not be critical block in 2022. The most critical for me is Ukambani and Kalonzo. Kalonzo is a must win for Raila. For Ruto - winning Kalonzo - will finish off the race this early - and 2022 will become useless.
Mt Kenya will only become critical if Uhuru closes rank with Ruto - then it will be united and will become a 25-28 punch - for now both Raila and Ruto will pick DPORK from there - but winning elsewhere is more critical.
Amongst the Central Province Counties Ruto enjoys highest support more than 90% in Muranga because of the hate of Raila.
Nyeri comes second because of memories of Raila undermining Kibaki. Ruto needs to work on Kiambu . In that apart from being Uhurus backyard , have been known only to support a Candidate with ties or who hails from Kiambu but also holds majority of the Central population .
In 2013 and 2017 elections all Coast Counties used to tally their votes only to be cancelled by Kiambu alone.