Deep state warned not even think stealing a kalenjin vote

[mankind]

ODM appointed a committee of elders - led by Ntimama/Gumo/others
They commissioned a study - basically some experts to do MOAS - on possible scenarios.
Conclusion - all of ODM luminaries would beat Kibaki.
But only Kalonzo could beat Kibaki in rig proof margins.
A meeting was held in Kenya Club with all ODM luminaries
Ruto was chosen to deliver the bad news.
Ruto told Raila point blank his win was going to be stolen - he needed to step down.
The reason - As a Luo - there were many areas that were not comfortable to vote for Kihii.
Raila cried. Kajwang wailed. They said Luos were kenyan like everyone.
Ruto told them it is what it is.

After the meeting - Raila and Luos drove to Ruto house in Karen. In Raila camp they knew Kalenjin were critical - while Luhyas would play ball. Kalonzo obviously was just busy measuring drapes for statehouse.

They besieged Ruto until Ruto changed his mind - and told Raila - okay let get it done. It would be difficult but not impossible.

And as predicted - Kibaki planned the rigging knowing he need just 300-400k votes to top Raila.

Even RV agrees . if Raila supported Kalonzo Kibaki would have lost
Same mistake they are doing now If Raila runs Ruto will win and still ODM will claim it was rigged.
About results coming in it was Medias fault . Wherever they wete getting those results only they know. They were not official results.
Ive showcased right here ODM strongholds had miraculous voter turn out.

  There are studies based on assumptions and then there is reality.  That reality is that Raila lost based on real numbers rigging notwithstanding.  The  numbers were not there once Kalonzo bolted. Your moas would confirm that.

[RV Pundit]

I did MOAS with Prof Papaf. He was doing his. Opinion polls the same. It was going to be very close but Raila had a edge.

  There are studies based on assumptions and then there is reality.  That reality is that Raila lost based on real numbers rigging notwithstanding.  The  numbers were not there once Kalonzo bolted. Your moas would confirm that.

[RV Pundit]

This was one of email I exchanged with Papaf then....

Will give my thoughts later toninght
 
I will also update accordingly + other e-mail (reliable) that I have.
 
NB I am inclined to believe that the leak from NSIS is a REAL GENUINE McCOY!
 
Papa F
 
From RV Pundit in RCB
-----------------------------------
 
Good news for arap Mibei.

NSIS

It showed that the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) led by Raila Odinga enjoys a significant lead in Nyanza province with 86% of the vote, in Rift Valley province with 70%, North Eastern province with 67%, Coast province with 64%, Nairobi 56% and Western province with 54%.

Kibaki has Central province, his home turf, and Eastern province under his belt, leading by 98% and 70% respectively.

MOAS
       MK      RR    KM
Central    94%    4    2 -94 vs 98%-4% difference is okay 3 weeks ago.
Coast    34%    55    11 -against Raila's 64%--i will need to update Raila's number upward
Eastern    45     12    44-Eti Kibaki has 70%-Okay i don't agree with Nyati hse here
Nairobi     46    45    9 -against 56%-thanks to doctored steadman, no way Kibaki is winning Nairobi-MOASS will be updated.
NEP     28     69    3 -against 70% from NSIS-spot on
Nyanza 13     84    3--against 86% from NSIS-spot on
RV      30     65    5  --against 70% for arap Mibei- spot on
Western    23    70    3-against 54% for Raila-NSIS is 3 weeks late, western has had lot of changes since then.

Look like we differ with NSIS strongly in Western & Eastern-but that was 3 weeks ago and MOASS was last updated on 21st September. Otherwise the rest of the country am spot on.

Wakwitu, Do you still think Raila is UNELECTABLE.

[RV Pundit]

This was Papaf MOAS on Sept 2007 - three months to election

GRAND TOTALS   13,043,618            3,719,788      3,379,286      916,849
                           
PERCENTAGES               46.40498988      42.1571667      11.43784342
   61.45475355                        

[Nowayhaha]

Kibaki won in North Eastern . It was crystal clear that Kibaki would win in North Eastern.
ODM rigged heavily in their stronghold spefically Nyanza.

This was one of email I exchanged with Papaf then....

Will give my thoughts later toninght
 
I will also update accordingly + other e-mail (reliable) that I have.
 
NB I am inclined to believe that the leak from NSIS is a REAL GENUINE McCOY!
 
Papa F
 
From RV Pundit in RCB
-----------------------------------
 
Good news for arap Mibei.

NSIS

It showed that the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) led by Raila Odinga enjoys a significant lead in Nyanza province with 86% of the vote, in Rift Valley province with 70%, North Eastern province with 67%, Coast province with 64%, Nairobi 56% and Western province with 54%.

Kibaki has Central province, his home turf, and Eastern province under his belt, leading by 98% and 70% respectively.

MOAS
       MK      RR    KM
Central    94%    4    2 -94 vs 98%-4% difference is okay 3 weeks ago.
Coast    34%    55    11 -against Raila's 64%--i will need to update Raila's number upward
Eastern    45     12    44-Eti Kibaki has 70%-Okay i don't agree with Nyati hse here
Nairobi     46    45    9 -against 56%-thanks to doctored steadman, no way Kibaki is winning Nairobi-MOASS will be updated.
NEP     28     69    3 -against 70% from NSIS-spot on
Nyanza 13     84    3--against 86% from NSIS-spot on
RV      30     65    5  --against 70% for arap Mibei- spot on
Western    23    70    3-against 54% for Raila-NSIS is 3 weeks late, western has had lot of changes since then.

Look like we differ with NSIS strongly in Western & Eastern-but that was 3 weeks ago and MOASS was last updated on 21st September. Otherwise the rest of the country am spot on.

Wakwitu, Do you still think Raila is UNELECTABLE.

[RV Pundit]

This was MOAS in September - I think then PNU had not be formed.

   MOASS      
   MK   RR   KM
Central   94   4   2
Coast   33   56%   11
Eastern   45   12   44
Nairobi   41   50   9
NEP   26   72   3
Nyanza   85   12   3
RV   33   65   5
Western   19   77   2

Raila   4,164,009   49  - Raila scored  4.3m eventually - pretty great
Kibaki   3,406,445   40 - Kibaki padded his votes massively - adding 0.8M
Kalonzo   908,824   11 - Kalonzo scored - 879,903 - this pretty awesome - 9 percent
   8,479,278   100
      
   Turn out   60.56627067

We disagreed with Papaf on turnout projection mostly - and few areas. He was wrong as shown by the results.

It appears to be Kibaki actually did rig MASSIVELY.

[RV Pundit]

How many MPs did Kibaki get in North Eastern - NEP had less than 100K votes (it doesnt really matter) but please let me know how PNU performed in MP seats. Remember he was just busy rigging the presidential vote.

This was MOAS prediction for Mps - by then PNU had not be formed
      ODM   ODM-k   Narc-K   KANU   DP   Ford-K   Ford-P   Shirikisho   Others
Central   29   0   0   12   3   6   0   0   0   8
Coast   20   10   2   2   1   0   0   0   4   1
Eastern   36   2   16   8   3   4   0   0   0   3
Nairobi   8   4   0   2   0   1   0   0   0   1
NEP   11   4   0   2   1   0   0   0   0   1
Nyanza   31   26   0   0   0   0   0   4   0   1
RV   49   32   3   3   4   2   3   0   0   3
Western   26   15   0   2   0   0   4   0   0   5
   210   93   21   31   12   13   7   4   4   23

The result ODM got 99 - against MOAS 93 - VERY GOOD
ODM-K got 16 against predicted 21 - Very GOOD.

PNU I think later coalsced into PNU/NARC/
                              

Kibaki won in North Eastern . It was crystal clear that Kibaki would win in North Eastern.
ODM rigged heavily in their stronghold spefically Nyanza.

[Nowayhaha]

Kibaki got 5 out of 10


Dujis ODM Aden Bare Duale
Fafi KANU Aden Ahamed Sugow
Ijara KANUMohamed Yussuf Haji
Lagdera ODM Farah Maalim
Mandera Central SAFINA Abdikadir Hussein Mohamed
Mandera East ODM Mohamed Hussein Ali
Mandera West ODM Maalim Mahmud Mohamed
Wajir East ODM Mohamed Ibrahim Elmi
Wajir South KANU Abdirahman Ali Hassan
Wajir West KANU Adan Keynan Wehiye

How many MPs did Kibaki get in North Eastern. Remember he was just busy rigging the presidential vote.

This was MOAS prediction for Mps - by then PNU had not be formed
      ODM   ODM-k   Narc-K   KANU   DP   Ford-K   Ford-P   Shirikisho   Others
Central   29   0   0   12   3   6   0   0   0   8
Coast   20   10   2   2   1   0   0   0   4   1
Eastern   36   2   16   8   3   4   0   0   0   3
Nairobi   8   4   0   2   0   1   0   0   0   1
NEP   11   4   0   2   1   0   0   0   0   1
Nyanza   31   26   0   0   0   0   0   4   0   1
RV   49   32   3   3   4   2   3   0   0   3
Western   26   15   0   2   0   0   4   0   0   5
   210   93   21   31   12   13   7   4   4   23

The result ODM got 99 - against MOAS 93 - VERY GOOD
ODM-K got 16 against predicted 21 - Very GOOD.

PNU I think later coalsced into PNU/NARC/
                              

Kibaki won in North Eastern . It was crystal clear that Kibaki would win in North Eastern.
ODM rigged heavily in their stronghold spefically Nyanza.

[RV Pundit]

Attached Papaf and MOASS.

I cannot find the final ones - this was done somewhere in Sept/October.

[GeeMail]

Don't even know where to be gin when people defend blatant rigging in 2007, 2013, 2017 and 2022.

[RV Pundit]

So 50-50 with KANU. I believe Kibaki was keen to rig NEP not because of numbers - but because he needed a province - the old constitution required one to win in majority of the province . Btw when did KANU join PNU?

Kibaki got 5 out of 10

Dujis ODM Aden Bare Duale
Fafi KANU Aden Ahamed Sugow
Ijara KANUMohamed Yussuf Haji
Lagdera ODM Farah Maalim
Mandera Central SAFINA Abdikadir Hussein Mohamed
Mandera East ODM Mohamed Hussein Ali
Mandera West ODM Maalim Mahmud Mohamed
Wajir East ODM Mohamed Ibrahim Elmi
Wajir South KANU Abdirahman Ali Hassan
Wajir West KANU Adan Keynan Wehiye

[RV Pundit]

2013 and 2017 - the only rigging I have seen was done in NEP - definitely Mandera in both cases. 2013 had lot more controls - biometrics were introduced - provisional reporting - technology.

What sell rigging in NEP was that unlike other areas where Biometric identification was done - at 98 percent - in NEP it was down to 92 - so it could imply some rigging or maybe tough conditions there? But it was in some areas - especially north most NEP.

Northern Kenya is where rigging can easily happen.

Don't even know where to be gin when people defend blatant rigging in 2007, 2013, 2017 and 2022.

[Nowayhaha]

RV I dont recall the figures but back in Mashada I recall having a discussion with Late OO about the significance of North Eastern . They were as big as Meru and Kisii politically wise.
The Previous constituion one had to win small majority and at least  25% of the votes in 5 out of 8 provinces. A very small threshold.
KANU joined PNU when Uhuru decided to support Kibaki around September 2007 If I recall well.
And I believe you know North Eastern with clan politics and their support of the rulling Government. One reason Uhuru didnt force them to join Jubilee and actually agreed with their idea of PDP (current UDA) in 2017 elections.

So 50-50 with KANU. I believe Kibaki was keen to rig NEP not because of numbers - but because he needed a province - the old constitution required one to win in majority of the province . Btw when did KANU join PNU?

Kibaki got 5 out of 10

Dujis ODM Aden Bare Duale
Fafi KANU Aden Ahamed Sugow
Ijara KANUMohamed Yussuf Haji
Lagdera ODM Farah Maalim
Mandera Central SAFINA Abdikadir Hussein Mohamed
Mandera East ODM Mohamed Hussein Ali
Mandera West ODM Maalim Mahmud Mohamed
Wajir East ODM Mohamed Ibrahim Elmi
Wajir South KANU Abdirahman Ali Hassan
Wajir West KANU Adan Keynan Wehiye

[RV Pundit]

We never did comparison with MOAS -
This was ECK

Candidate   Mwai Kibaki   Raila Odinga   Kalonzo Musyoka
TOTAL   46.4   44.1   8.9
Nairobi   41.5   53.3   5.1
Nyanza   14.6   85   0.3
Western   30   69.2   0.3
R. Valley   28.7   70.3   1
Central   97.4   1.9   0.7
Eastern   54.7   6.4   38.8
Coast   34.4   58.9   6.7
N. Eastern   47.9   49.6   2.4

This was MOAS
         
   MK   RR   KM
Central   94   4   2
Coast   33   56%   11
Eastern   45   12   44
Nairobi   41   50   9
NEP   26   72   3
Nyanza   85   12   3
RV   33   65   5
Western   19   77   2

Conclusion - MOAS was right (within margin of error) - except few areas
1) Western - Moas scored 20 instead of 30.  then I really did not understand western - now I know it. MOAS is getting more precise as I have gained a lot more knowledge.

2) Eastern - Kibaki beat Kalonzo - getting 10 percent more than I predicted. This I suspect is pure rigging.

3) NEP - 50-50 - I had Raila at 70 - it no biggie - they had very few votes. Another suspected rigging. It was critical for Kibaki because old constitution required get 25 percent in more than half the provinces.

So where did the rigging happen
1) Central Kenya - clue is TURN OUT figures.
2) Eastern Kenya - Kibaki even beat Kalonzo there - while Kambas are majority.

[RV Pundit]

NEP total registered votes were like 120k. It had no significance except for Kibaki who was very unpopular to get 25 percent in five province.

Okay sept - yes because in my MOAS i dont have PNU -

I wish I can get my final MOAS done in december...this one was done in september.

Then I would be able to tell you exactly where Kibaki rigged - definitely he rigged his stronghold of GEMA.

RV I dont recall the figures but back in Mashada I recall having a discussion with Late OO about the significance of North Eastern . They were as big as Meru and Kisii politically wise.
The Previous constituion one had to win small majority and at least  25% of the votes in 5 out of 8 provinces. A very small threshold.
KANU joined PNU when Uhuru decided to support Kibaki around September 2007 If I recall well.
And I believe you know North Eastern with clan politics and their support of the rulling Government. One reason Uhuru didnt force them to join Jubilee and actually agreed with their idea of PDP (current UDA) in 2017 elections.

[mankind]

How many MPs did Kibaki get in North Eastern - NEP had less than 100K votes (it doesnt really matter) but please let me know how PNU performed in MP seats. Remember he was just busy rigging the presidential vote.

This was MOAS prediction for Mps - by then PNU had not be formed
      ODM   ODM-k   Narc-K   KANU   DP   Ford-K   Ford-P   Shirikisho   Others
Central   29   0   0   12   3   6   0   0   0   8
Coast   20   10   2   2   1   0   0   0   4   1
Eastern   36   2   16   8   3   4   0   0   0   3
Nairobi   8   4   0   2   0   1   0   0   0   1
NEP   11   4   0   2   1   0   0   0   0   1
Nyanza   31   26   0   0   0   0   0   4   0   1
RV   49   32   3   3   4   2   3   0   0   3
Western   26   15   0   2   0   0   4   0   0   5
   210   93   21   31   12   13   7   4   4   23

The result ODM got 99 - against MOAS 93 - VERY GOOD
ODM-K got 16 against predicted 21 - Very GOOD.

PNU I think later coalsced into PNU/NARC/
                              

Kibaki won in North Eastern . It was crystal clear that Kibaki would win in North Eastern.
ODM rigged heavily in their stronghold spefically Nyanza.

   Do you have the registered voters by province then compare with the results.  As I pointed out earlier central alone had almost the combined registered voters of RV plus Luo  Nyanza.  Remember the same RV had Nakuru and Trans Nzoia , pokot and Turkana which didn't vote for ODM or where they did the numbers weren't huge.  Kirwa for example lost cherangany due to a split among the same supporters.  The same scenario happened in many places thus the majority mps for ODM.

[RV Pundit]

MOAS that I have didnt have final registered. But there were projection of increase voters - I am not sure where I got the data - but Central for example I projected 23 percent increase in registered votes from 2005 referendum. Those days getting data from ECK was not easy.

Which cheranganyi - when Kalenjin were totally against Kibaki - except maybe some pokots.

Kibaki rigged pure and simple. Some exit poll had him 6 percent below Raila.

Everyone saw Kibaki brazen rigging - people protested - and war like no other broke out.

It was BRAZEN ON YOUR FACE rigging. RO switched their phones off - and Kivuitu could not reach them - what do you think they were doing

The defence that ODM also rigged is not true...due to turnout.

I had studied turnout from 92, 97, 2002 and 2005 - some places in Luo Nyanza had in all those election turned out at 96 percent every election - for example Nyatike.

   Do you have the registered voters by province then compare with the results.  As I pointed out earlier central alone had almost the combined registered voters of RV plus Luo  Nyanza.  Remember the same RV had Nakuru and Trans Nzoia , pokot and Turkana which didn't vote for ODM or where they did the numbers weren't huge.  Kirwa for example lost cherangany due to a split among the same supporters.  The same scenario happened in many places thus the majority mps for ODM.

[Nowayhaha]

Pure lie. So they do 96 percent from 90s to 2007 and when technology is introduced in the electral process in 2013 and 2017 they go to 60s and 70 percent.
RV saa zingine learn kukubali ukweli. One thing with facts is that they are stubborn.

I had studied turnout from 92, 97, 2002 and 2005 - some places in Luo Nyanza had in all those election turned out at 96 percent every election - for example Nyatike.

[vooke]

IEBC moved heavens to frustrate their petition which painted them as horribly biased. It was pointless going back with then without minimum reforms.

Why didnt he not participate in a re-run.

Beliefs

Beliefs

2017 was rigged at least to get past the 50%+1 mark. Courts stood by Babu and then threw him under the bus hence the protests.

It's all about beliefs followed by claims/allegations



In your mind you'd love to think Babu was hallucinating.

2007 was brazen rigging. Observers saw it. Media broadcasted it live. Everyone saw Kibaki close huge margin of nearly a million vote - by fiddling with figures from his strongholds. It was on your face rigging. Like Museveni rigged last year. He normally rig small small but this time he totally went overboard.

In 2022 it depends - if their semblance of free, fair and credible elections - Ruto UDA complain - they will have to present evidence - to supreme court and the media.

If your deep state become desperate - and start playing monkeys games brazenly - then people will not even wait for supreme court - before responding.

So best way to stop war is do conduct the fairest, cleanest, most credible election possible. But you're talking about sijui stopping Ruto sijui with what?

This election doesnt have any margin of errors or any room for monkey games unless you want to become refugee.

You don't get it; it's claims/beliefs of unfairness that triggers masses and not necessarily unfairness.

You believe 2007 was stolen and hence the Outrage & PEV warranted. You believe 2017 was fair so, why did we have violence?

Once again, it is not unfairness but beliefs/claims of unfairness.

If Ruto loses fairly but still claims rigging, there'd be fickle pockets of violence amongst RV worriers.  If he is rigged out but holds his peace there'd be no violence

[RV Pundit]

You're a cartoon. No one is swayed by facts like me.
I have studied these kind of data for many years.
Pre 2007 new constitution many areas use to experience very low turnout.
But Luo Nyanza, Kalenjin land always led - followed by Kikuyus - everyone else really never cared - western/gusii - could even pull 40 percent turnout...which was better than NEP that did 20 percent.

If Luo Nyanza rigged turnout in 2007 - then they had been rigging every other election. Homabay and Luo Migori I believe normally pulled 80-90 percent in 90s/2007s.

After PEV of 2007 - I think many kenyans started to realize election was serious business.
I have now seen very high turnout.

Part of centrals even in 2013/2017 - pulled 95 percent - with biometrics and all that.

Before 2007 - national turnout rarely got 60 percent - some election it was even 55 or 52 percent.

2013 was shocking 85 percent national turnout. I think it went down in 2017 to 75 percent.

This year I see it around there or even dropping - I dont see the excitement in many areas.

Pure lie. So they do 96 percent from 90s to 2007 and when technology is introduced in the electral process in 2013 and 2017 they go to 60s and 70 percent.
RV saa zingine learn kukubali ukweli. One thing with facts is that they are stubborn.