Deep state warned not even think stealing a kalenjin vote

[RV Pundit]

Bora ni free, fair and credible election - hapo Jakom will be welcomed - as 5th - but any rigging games - we will become a failed state - and yugoslavia - six nations - is very likely - as kenya dangerous ethnicity will eventually come to bite. Jakom can run Nyanzabwe together with Luhyaland. Ruto will run Rift Valley Nation - from Nairobi - with Maasai as Deputy President - and Turkana as Prime Minister.  Muthamaki will run Lesotho from Nyeri - with 3 million new immigrants - it will be total chaos.  Sultan will run Pwani. Waria and Borana will run their own Ngamialand.

We will not have another Kalenjin warlord as a president. Moja tosha, there is 40 other tribes in Kenya. Piga queue.

I don't condone rigging but if Kenyans are dumb enough to re elect the number 2 in Jubilee whose administration literally brought down this country to its knees through corruption and wanton borrowing then I fully support usurping the jigger infested miscreants sovereign powers to choose their leaders. Kenya is too important to be given over to jambazis. I believe we won't have to resort to that, Raila is comfortably going to pull this away come next year.

[Nowayhaha]

RV pundit with the war talk. There is no happening. What I will pick up from this thread is the below . If Uhuu trys to become a factor in the regime change elections ,certainly people might raid properties.
Getting the out will be a fait accompli. As expereinced in Likoni and Taita Taveta negotiations will have to be done for all parties to be satisfied.

Once RV start the entire region including as far South Sudan/Congo/Uganda will be plunged into chaos. Refer to 2007. It also likely that class war will erupt in Mt kenya as they will see their elite as the main cause of the civil war and their sufferings. So expect Mois, Kenyattas and likes properties to be destroyed. I dont know how places like Coast and Northern Kenya will react.

[RV Pundit]

Unlike you I analyze things from 360. I see scenario where civil war erupts. If you cannot - maybe you should listen to Farah Maalim. If Uhuru tries monkey game with Ruto - he will discover the depth of RV waters.

RV pundit with the war talk. There is no happening. What I will pick up from this thread is the below . If Uhuu trys to become a factor in the regime change elections ,certainly people might raid properties.
Getting the out will be a fait accompli. As expereinced in Likoni and Taita Taveta negotiations will have to be done for all parties to be satisfied.

[Nowayhaha]

Lesotho talks again. You survived 2007 elections and ICC hacking. If there was ever to be another P.E.V. these people will hunt you down and parade you as an inciter.
Secondly forget provinces there is nothing like Rift Valley.  Kalenjins are only majority in 5 Counties . The rest are distinct in nature  with majority being from other tribes.
Now Kenya is a Unitary state Yuguslavia was a merger of different. Actually you need to look at Yugoslavia the way East African Coperation was before the split in late seventies.
To break Kenya you will need a referendum and a lot of support from U.N. and Foreign powers. You can see even after more than 30 years the splinter nations from Somalia are yet to be recognized.
Some of these things are easier said than done. So punguza theory mob.

Bora ni free, fair and credible election - hapo Jakom will be welcomed - as 5th - but any rigging games - we will become a failed state - and yugoslavia - six nations - is very likely - as kenya dangerous ethnicity will eventually come to bite. Jakom can run Nyanzabwe together with Luhyaland. Ruto will run Rift Valley Nation - from Nairobi - with Maasai as Deputy President - and Turkana as Prime Minister.  Muthamaki will run Lesotho from Nyeri - with 3 million new immigrants - it will be total chaos.  Sultan will run Pwani. Waria and Borana will run their own Ngamialand.

We will not have another Kalenjin warlord as a president. Moja tosha, there is 40 other tribes in Kenya. Piga queue.

I don't condone rigging but if Kenyans are dumb enough to re elect the number 2 in Jubilee whose administration literally brought down this country to its knees through corruption and wanton borrowing then I fully support usurping the jigger infested miscreants sovereign powers to choose their leaders. Kenya is too important to be given over to jambazis. I believe we won't have to resort to that, Raila is comfortably going to pull this away come next year.

[RV Pundit]

My friend I am free to theorize. I am an intellectual.

NASA attempted this - but they lacked RV Warriors to actualize it.

So let assume Kenya politics is mismanaged - our security forces break into camps.

Then what happen?

The way I see - kenya cannot split into 44 tribal countries - it will be mostly old 7 provinces.

Remember those provinces were formed by Kenyans - after they told Mzungu where they wanted to be.

Kalenjin are majority in 7 counties (Bomet,Kericho, Nandi, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, Pokot, Baringo) - and occupy 10 countries where they have Mps (Bungoma, Tranzoia, Nakuru, and Narok) - 11 if you include Nairob in significant numbers.

In such a civil war - I see Maasai merging with Kalenjin for the sake of land issues - Maasai will want to kick people out of parts Nairobi, Kajiado,Narok, Nyandarua, Laikipi and Nakuru. These again are open well known historical issues.

If they succeed - the displacement of Mt kenya will be huge - I think 3 milllion people.

Kalenjin will also attempt to kick out Luos from sugar belt to Kibos in Kisumu, Gusii to Kucha river (nearly whole of Nyamira county) - and Luhyas from Tranzoia - Likiyuani in Kakamega- about 1-2million luhyas could be evicted.

I will be evicted from Nairobi and Kiambu where I own properties.

Coast Kenya sio Pwani is well known story - starting from Sultan of Zanzibar to the Mazuris.

NEP/NFD Seccesion wars - and wanting to join Somali is well known fact. Shift wars.

Obviously Luos also feel marginalized in kenya - and want out - but dont know where to start. I am sure once Raila loses - they will wish they were not part of Kenya.

These are scenarios....realistic of kenya as failed state in civil war.

You can shut me down - BUT CAN YOU SHUT KENYA BEING CLASSIFIED AS FRAGILE STATE - top 20 - because serious GROUP GRIEVANCES?

May friend Yugoslavia is our destiny if we do not manage our ethnic politics well.

This is not incitement  - this is forewarning - that if Mlevi mishandle politics - Kenya could go to the dogs. We escaped by a whisker in 2007 only because Raila is a coward. Ruto is not a coward.

Lesotho talks again. You survived 2007 elections and ICC hacking. If there was ever to be another P.E.V. these people will hunt you down and parade you as an inciter.
Secondly forget provinces there is nothing like Rift Valley.  Kalenjins are only majority in 5 Counties . The rest are distinct in nature  with majority being from other tribes.
Now Kenya is a Unitary state Yuguslavia was a merger of different. Actually you need to look at Yugoslavia the way East African Coperation was before the split in late seventies.
To break Kenya you will need a referendum and a lot of support from U.N. and Foreign powers. You can see even after more than 30 years the splinter nations from Somalia are yet to be recognized.
Some of these things are easier said than done. So punguza theory mob.

Bora ni free, fair and credible election - hapo Jakom will be welcomed - as 5th - but any rigging games - we will become a failed state - and yugoslavia - six nations - is very likely - as kenya dangerous ethnicity will eventually come to bite. Jakom can run Nyanzabwe together with Luhyaland. Ruto will run Rift Valley Nation - from Nairobi - with Maasai as Deputy President - and Turkana as Prime Minister.  Muthamaki will run Lesotho from Nyeri - with 3 million new immigrants - it will be total chaos.  Sultan will run Pwani. Waria and Borana will run their own Ngamialand.

We will not have another Kalenjin warlord as a president. Moja tosha, there is 40 other tribes in Kenya. Piga queue.

I don't condone rigging but if Kenyans are dumb enough to re elect the number 2 in Jubilee whose administration literally brought down this country to its knees through corruption and wanton borrowing then I fully support usurping the jigger infested miscreants sovereign powers to choose their leaders. Kenya is too important to be given over to jambazis. I believe we won't have to resort to that, Raila is comfortably going to pull this away come next year.

[Kadudu]

Good to read that you are educating your fellow UDA warlord on some simple basics of civility. Now you know the kind of fellows you will be ruling the country with after 2022. Everytime there will be a disagreement they will bring out the rungu to settle scores. You will long for the days of the stone throwers of Kisumu and Kibera.

Lesotho talks again. You survived 2007 elections and ICC hacking. If there was ever to be another P.E.V. these people will hunt you down and parade you as an inciter.
Secondly forget provinces there is nothing like Rift Valley.  Kalenjins are only majority in 5 Counties . The rest are distinct in nature  with majority being from other tribes.
Now Kenya is a Unitary state Yuguslavia was a merger of different. Actually you need to look at Yugoslavia the way East African Coperation was before the split in late seventies.
To break Kenya you will need a referendum and a lot of support from U.N. and Foreign powers. You can see even after more than 30 years the splinter nations from Somalia are yet to be recognized.
Some of these things are easier said than done. So punguza theory mob.

[RV Pundit]

Kalenjin are very agreeable, hospitable, generous, humble and peaceful people until you declare war. Luos are insufferable in a daily basis - proud, loud and conceited. Let them choose Luos if they want to suffer daily. Kalenjin will only bring arrows when things are truly south. When war is declared...Kalenjin go into savage mode...will kill like it's nothing. Luos have no savage mode..just a few stones and everything is okay...if they kill one person...their consciousness will make them run mad...Kalenjin will cleanse a killer...and they go back...killing...come to be cleansed...go back killing. After war - they go back to farming - like they did nothing.

Good to read that you are educating your fellow UDA warlord on some simple basics of civility. Now you know the kind of fellows you will be ruling the country with after 2022. Everytime there will be a disagreement they will bring out the rungu to settle scores. You will long for the days of the stone throwers of Kisumu and Kibera.

[Nowayhaha]

RV Pundit is a Nyayoist .They form around 15% of population in Dorminant Kalenjin Counties .They voted for Raila in 2013 and 2017.
Ruto is cut from a different cloth. Actually he amd Kirwa were amongst the first post Multi Party Kalenjins to stand up against Moi.
He knew such type of politics was not sustainable. Ruto completely destroyed ODM when it was trying to play Nyayo type of politics.

Now if we look at dissagreements Ruto has handled it well with Uhuru.He let Uhuru be.

Raila on the other hand really messed up Kibaki . Kibaki could have achieved much if it wasnt for Raila noises. Raila instead took Kenya to the absyss in 2007. In 2016 -2017 braught businesses to standtill because he never got what he wanted.

Good to read that you are educating your fellow UDA warlord on some simple basics of civility. Now you know the kind of fellows you will be ruling the country with after 2022. Everytime there will be a disagreement they will bring out the rungu to settle scores. You will long for the days of the stone throwers of Kisumu and Kibera.

Lesotho talks again. You survived 2007 elections and ICC hacking. If there was ever to be another P.E.V. these people will hunt you down and parade you as an inciter.
Secondly forget provinces there is nothing like Rift Valley.  Kalenjins are only majority in 5 Counties . The rest are distinct in nature  with majority being from other tribes.
Now Kenya is a Unitary state Yuguslavia was a merger of different. Actually you need to look at Yugoslavia the way East African Coperation was before the split in late seventies.
To break Kenya you will need a referendum and a lot of support from U.N. and Foreign powers. You can see even after more than 30 years the splinter nations from Somalia are yet to be recognized.
Some of these things are easier said than done. So punguza theory mob.

[RV Pundit]

I am political analyst or pundit - analyzing - everything - the good, the bad and the ugly. You my guy, you are one delusional fellow, who just want to hear about good things.

I try to do dispassionate job by taking myself out of the issues - and looking at it from 3rd party.

I say a lot of ugly things we dont want to hear or see - but trust me - I always try to say the truth.

It doesnt matter if I support Raila today. Or Ruto tomorrow. Or Uhuru next.

Trying to say I am GEMA hater is very funny - because I grew up supporting DP, my father was GEMAphile and I married a GEMA woman.

In our family - I have bro who is stuck with Raila - I dont know now - but the guy is Raila dude forever - my father and I use to disagree with him - but we respected his choice.

RV Pundit is a Nyayoist .They form around 15% of population in Dorminant Kalenjin Counties .They voted for Raila in 2013 and 2017.
Ruto is cut from a different cloth. Actually he amd Kirwa were amongst the first post Multi Party Kalenjins to stand up against Moi.
He knew such type of politics was not sustainable. Ruto completely destroyed ODM when it was trying to play Nyayo type of politics.

Now if we look at dissagreements Ruto has handled it well with Uhuru.He let Uhuru be.

Raila on the other hand really messed up Kibaki . Kibaki could have achieved much if it wasnt for Raila noises. Raila instead took Kenya to the absyss in 2007. In 2016 -2017 braught businesses to standtill because he never got what he wanted.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Good to read that you are educating your fellow UDA warlord on some simple basics of civility. Now you know the kind of fellows you will be ruling the country with after 2022. Everytime there will be a disagreement they will bring out the rungu to settle scores. You will long for the days of the stone throwers of Kisumu and Kibera.

Does that mean you think Arap Singh will be handed power?  Is the gaslighting getting to you  ? 

IMO rigging is what has kept Baba out of power.  The easiest way for him is to simply not interfere with elections.

[patel]

Rigging will be there in 2022..baked in the cake. Rigging machinery is wholly owned by kalenjin and Gema mafia. seems there is a split between these 2 mafia group. For Ruto to win he needs both Mafia group. However,  If Gema mafia decide to throw their weight behind Raila then Raila will win election by 9 am election day. i doubt there will be violence in 2022 may be in kalenjin land. maa, Turkana and Samburu will not join, nothing for them to gain. same with centro. without a strong Gema presidential candidate..there is nothing for them.
I agree, election this time around will be stolen in centro. expect to see alot of rigged out bitter UDA mp, senators, women rep in mt. kenya region..

[Nowayhaha]

Do you have the tribal break down of Police and Army ?
Nasa tried to incite security forces during 2017 elections only to realise its not easy to drag them into taking political sides.
In 2007 P.E.V. the policemen arrested for extra Judicial killings in Kisumu  were from Rift Valley same tribe who supported Raila.

Now about the origin of the provinces .Its well known that its the colonial master who formed them to protect their farms and interests. Rift Valley where they had farms wss made into a big province and where they sensed there was pockets they put them ss small provinces. Martha Karua during 2010 Constituional talks in Naivasha agitated for Provincial Boundaries to be relooked and and have Districts like Nakuru, Laikipia Meru Embu Tharaka Nithi  joined together with Former Central province which agreed upon , However the idea was dropped after Uhuru and Ruto won to remove regional Government.
Now we have discussed the consequences of war many times and how it can impact on  the Minority. I dont want to go there better brimg up the former threads instead of creating a new violence thread every week.
In 2007 people were evicted in Kalenjin dominated counties ,majority of  people lost lives in opposition stronghold from police shootings.

My friend I am free to theorize. I am an intellectual.

NASA attempted this - but they lacked RV Warriors to actualize it.

So let assume Kenya politics is mismanaged - our security forces break into camps.

Then what happen?

The way I see - kenya cannot split into 44 tribal countries - it will be mostly old 7 provinces.

Remember those provinces were formed by Kenyans - after they told Mzungu where they wanted to be.

Kalenjin are majority in 7 counties (Bomet,Kericho, Nandi, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, Pokot, Baringo) - and occupy 10 countries where they have Mps (Bungoma, Tranzoia, Nakuru, and Narok) - 11 if you include Nairob in significant numbers.

In such a civil war - I see Maasai merging with Kalenjin for the sake of land issues - Maasai will want to kick people out of parts Nairobi, Kajiado,Narok, Nyandarua, Laikipi and Nakuru. These again are open well known historical issues.

If they succeed - the displacement of Mt kenya will be huge - I think 3 milllion people.

Kalenjin will also attempt to kick out Luos from sugar belt to Kibos in Kisumu, Gusii to Kucha river (nearly whole of Nyamira county) - and Luhyas from Tranzoia - Likiyuani in Kakamega- about 1-2million luhyas could be evicted.

I will be evicted from Nairobi and Kiambu where I own properties.

Coast Kenya sio Pwani is well known story - starting from Sultan of Zanzibar to the Mazuris.

NEP/NFD Seccesion wars - and wanting to join Somali is well known fact. Shift wars.

Obviously Luos also feel marginalized in kenya - and want out - but dont know where to start. I am sure once Raila loses - they will wish they were not part of Kenya.

These are scenarios....realistic of kenya as failed state in civil war.

You can shut me down - BUT CAN YOU SHUT KENYA BEING CLASSIFIED AS FRAGILE STATE - top 20 - because serious GROUP GRIEVANCES?

May friend Yugoslavia is our destiny if we do not manage our ethnic politics well.

This is not incitement  - this is forewarning - that if Mlevi mishandle politics - Kenya could go to the dogs. We escaped by a whisker in 2007 only because Raila is a coward. Ruto is not a coward.

Lesotho talks again. You survived 2007 elections and ICC hacking. If there was ever to be another P.E.V. these people will hunt you down and parade you as an inciter.
Secondly forget provinces there is nothing like Rift Valley.  Kalenjins are only majority in 5 Counties . The rest are distinct in nature  with majority being from other tribes.
Now Kenya is a Unitary state Yuguslavia was a merger of different. Actually you need to look at Yugoslavia the way East African Coperation was before the split in late seventies.
To break Kenya you will need a referendum and a lot of support from U.N. and Foreign powers. You can see even after more than 30 years the splinter nations from Somalia are yet to be recognized.
Some of these things are easier said than done. So punguza theory mob.

Bora ni free, fair and credible election - hapo Jakom will be welcomed - as 5th - but any rigging games - we will become a failed state - and yugoslavia - six nations - is very likely - as kenya dangerous ethnicity will eventually come to bite. Jakom can run Nyanzabwe together with Luhyaland. Ruto will run Rift Valley Nation - from Nairobi - with Maasai as Deputy President - and Turkana as Prime Minister.  Muthamaki will run Lesotho from Nyeri - with 3 million new immigrants - it will be total chaos.  Sultan will run Pwani. Waria and Borana will run their own Ngamialand.

We will not have another Kalenjin warlord as a president. Moja tosha, there is 40 other tribes in Kenya. Piga queue.

I don't condone rigging but if Kenyans are dumb enough to re elect the number 2 in Jubilee whose administration literally brought down this country to its knees through corruption and wanton borrowing then I fully support usurping the jigger infested miscreants sovereign powers to choose their leaders. Kenya is too important to be given over to jambazis. I believe we won't have to resort to that, Raila is comfortably going to pull this away come next year.

[Nowayhaha]

The writing is on the wall. Ruto is winning it. The only worry now as Kadudu rightly points it is the people he will bring around him.
Prayer is that he brings proffesionals of high integrity.
If he brings vultures like Uhuru did with his cronies and family associates. Kenya will end up in a bad placed . After Uhurus second term Kenya requires 10 years of solid recuparating .

Good to read that you are educating your fellow UDA warlord on some simple basics of civility. Now you know the kind of fellows you will be ruling the country with after 2022. Everytime there will be a disagreement they will bring out the rungu to settle scores. You will long for the days of the stone throwers of Kisumu and Kibera.

Does that mean you think Arap Singh will be handed power?  Is the gaslighting getting to you  ? 

IMO rigging is what has kept Baba out of power.  The easiest way for him is to simply not interfere with elections.

[Kadudu]

No need for tribal breakdown of police.
Note there is no Kalejin at the top of any security organ in Kenya today. Most in the hands of GEMA and kidogo Kavirondo. Internal and Defence docket now 100% in Uhuru's trusted boys. This time it will be tough for Kales to play with fire. Remember they have been out of SH now 20 years unlike in 2007 when it was only 5 years. The dynamics have changed and Pundit and his ilk should remember they do not have a monopoly in violence.

Do you have the tribal break down of Police and Army ?
Nasa tried to incite security forces during 2017 elections only to realise its not easy to drag them into taking political sides.
In 2007 P.E.V. the policemen arrested for extra Judicial killings in Kisumu  were from Rift Valley same tribe who supported Raila.

Now about the origin of the provinces .Its well known that its the colonial master who formed them to protect their farms and interests. Rift Valley where they had farms wss made into a big province and where they sensed there was pockets they put them ss small provinces. Martha Karua during 2010 Constituional talks in Naivasha agitated for Provincial Boundaries to be relooked and and have Districts like Nakuru, Laikipia Meru Embu Tharaka Nithi  joined together with Former Central province which agreed upon , However the idea was dropped after Uhuru and Ruto won to remove regional Government.
Now we have discussed the consequences of war many times and how it can impact on  the Minority. I dont want to go there better brimg up the former threads instead of creating a new violence thread every week.
In 2007 people were evicted in Kalenjin dominated counties ,majority of  people lost lives in opposition stronghold from police shootings.

[Kadudu]

I only indicated in case he wins.
Ruto cannot invent himself new. He is just another corrupt politician. Even if he surrounds himself with the best brains, but he himself is out to enrich himself and family, it will end up in disaster. Ruto cannot even build water dams in RV without pocketing a huge chunk of the money allocated to the construction of the dams. What will we expect from a man who has no shame to steal from his own kinsmen?

The writing is on the wall. Ruto is winning it. The only worry now as Kadudu rightly points it is the people he will bring around him.
Prayer is that he brings proffesionals of high integrity.
If he brings vultures like Uhuru did with his cronies and family associates. Kenya will end up in a bad placed . After Uhurus second term Kenya requires 10 years of solid recuparating .

[RV Pundit]

Maa will jump at any war to reclaim land - they know they are down and out - all they will want is for Kalenjin to start

Rigging will be there in 2022..baked in the cake. Rigging machinery is wholly owned by kalenjin and Gema mafia. seems there is a split between these 2 mafia group. For Ruto to win he needs both Mafia group. However,  If Gema mafia decide to throw their weight behind Raila then Raila will win election by 9 am election day. i doubt there will be violence in 2022 may be in kalenjin land. maa, Turkana and Samburu will not join, nothing for them to gain. same with centro. without a strong Gema presidential candidate..there is nothing for them.
I agree, election this time around will be stolen in centro. expect to see alot of rigged out bitter UDA mp, senators, women rep in mt. kenya region..

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

I only indicated in case he wins.
Ruto cannot invent himself new. He is just another corrupt politician. Even if he surrounds himself with the best brains, but he himself is out to enrich himself and family, it will end up in disaster. Ruto cannot even build water dams in RV without pocketing a huge chunk of the money allocated to the construction of the dams. What will we expect from a man who has no shame to steal from his own kinsmen?

The writing is on the wall. Ruto is winning it. The only worry now as Kadudu rightly points it is the people he will bring around him.
Prayer is that he brings proffesionals of high integrity.
If he brings vultures like Uhuru did with his cronies and family associates. Kenya will end up in a bad placed . After Uhurus second term Kenya requires 10 years of solid recuparating .

Got ya.  Remote possibility IMO.

[RV Pundit]

How will that help. Once civil war has started - even Garang - a mere conolel took off - few southern sudanese soldiers - and fought Sudan.

My friend - you really got jokes - Kenyatta took Nyandarua from Rift Valley - but if you dare take Nakuru or Laikipia - you will start a big war.

You need to read your history.

Anyway so let again help you. If Kalenjin decides that it's going to war. They will immediately mobilize the warrior class - I mean in matters of hours - warriors will have removed their clothes - wore shuka - got weapons - and will be assembling.

How many warriors are those -- mm - I think 2 million out of 6.5M kalenjin - is possible.

No other tribe in Kenya can do the same - they rest can assemble gangs - and will struggle to even get 10,000. These will be million half-trained warriors. All you need is to give them a few guns - few ex-military -or ex-police - and in 2 days maximum - they will defeat Kenya Police/GSU/APs like happened in 2007.

In fact the police will collapse in day one - because of many IDPS - that will be camping all over. They will collapse without any much fight.

Who will Kalenjin attack - I bet they will go for seccession (when Kibaki attempted to have Moi charged- Kalenjin threaten to secede) or an armed struggle to restor democracy in Nairobi (very likely if Hustler Revolution get national buyin in war)

Now the play go to the army.

How do Uhuru/Raila - let assume respond when police fails?

Obviously they will try to bring in the big guns - and will start maybe with ground troops - beating and looting - and it's at that point that Kalenjin soldiers will munity - grab as many weapons as they can - drive as many tanks as they will - and the war proper will start.

Now telling me how broke Kenya can sustain warfare - with 2 million warriors - few thousands guns - and a few military men providing guidance. Maybe 1m or more refugees if more tribes are involved

KDF will resort to throwing bombs - and doing Ethiopia type genocide or massacres. If they attempt ground troops - they will be massacred at night - for kalenjin are very adept in night battles.

Terrain wise - kalenjin land straddle rift valley - lots of hills, forests and such places - to hide - and snipe.

Meanwhile Western Kenya will be in blockade - only those who can fly - will go to Nairobi (Kenya).

KDF will resort to defending Nairobi from rebels - I think Nakuru is too much for them.

Kalenjin warriors will storm Nairobi - and Install Ruto . Ruto I doubt will stay in Kenya if such war starts - he will go to exile - in friendly Africa country like Uganda - so Ocampo and company can know he has NO PLAY in Kalenjin war machine.


Kalenjin will then rule kenya for the next 100 yrs

Human toll in both sides will be millions.

Do you have the tribal break down of Police and Army ?
Nasa tried to incite security forces during 2017 elections only to realise its not easy to drag them into taking political sides.
In 2007 P.E.V. the policemen arrested for extra Judicial killings in Kisumu  were from Rift Valley same tribe who supported Raila.

Now about the origin of the provinces .Its well known that its the colonial master who formed them to protect their farms and interests. Rift Valley where they had farms wss made into a big province and where they sensed there was pockets they put them ss small provinces. Martha Karua during 2010 Constituional talks in Naivasha agitated for Provincial Boundaries to be relooked and and have Districts like Nakuru, Laikipia Meru Embu Tharaka Nithi  joined together with Former Central province which agreed upon , However the idea was dropped after Uhuru and Ruto won to remove regional Government.
Now we have discussed the consequences of war many times and how it can impact on  the Minority. I dont want to go there better brimg up the former threads instead of creating a new violence thread every week.
In 2007 people were evicted in Kalenjin dominated counties ,majority of  people lost lives in opposition stronghold from police shootings.

[mankind]

   RV I always admire your indepth  analysis especially when backed by numbers.  However this war talk is unbecoming of someone your calibre.  As has been proven from the same Yugoslavia you are referring to perpetrators of war have nowhere to hide in the current world.  General Mladic and Karadic were eventually caught.  In Rwanda years down the line even Sabagina who helped alot of Tutsis was eventually convicted.  Talking about war is easy but once you are held to account all the bravado goes away.  It is easy to act in a mob/ crowd but once the dust settles and you are picked up by yourself then...god forbid.  Just look at how the guys who  invaded the US capital have been humbled.  So  do what you are good at.  Give us those analytical political stuff and leave the war talk to the uneducated villagers.

[RV Pundit]

I am just analyzing scenario. I wish you could use the same energy to call for free, fair and credible election. For that only thing that can prevent kenya for going down.

Last election - Raila went for NRM and swore himself as people president. Everyone know he didnt have much punch - he just had few stone throwers in Kondele and Kibra. He attempted to violently resist repeat election and to swear himself. He could not sustain it for a few hours. But imagine if Raila was Pokot or Somalia . They would have brought big guns to the streets and battled the police.

Now imagine the same - with Ruto - with Kalenjin united 98 percent - angry and bitter - with both Uhuru and Raila - for previous betrayal - after doing all donkey work to win election - you brazenly rig them out. BOSS BOSS. That is war declaration.

Do not even think about it. Listen to me - it will be BAD.

Kalenjin can accept anything but to become slaves in their country like Luos have done for 60yrs - I doubt they will accept.

Kenya is not immune to horrible stuff that happened in other countries.

There is ongoing war in Ethiopia, South Sudan, Somalia, Uganda and Rwanda are military dictatorship, Congo is a mess.

What makes you think KENYA IS SO SPECIAL.

Wars start this way - exactly this way - Uhuru has done a perfect job to set a BIG WAR UP.

Kenya for a long time has been analyzed as one most fragile states.

Many groups are unhappy. They are waiting for a trigger. Coast want their own country. NFD feel they have got a raw deal in Kenya with historic margnialization. Maasa think their land was stolen and given to other people. Kalenjin also think the same. Luos-Luhya feel kikuyu-Kalenjin hegemony has made them second class citizen. Kikuyus are also bitter for people killing and evicting them yet few families benefited. Kambas feel kenya is waste of time.

In fact the happiest people in Kenya are probably Merus and my inlaws Embus - for them everything is remote - they have been on either Moi or GEMA leadership - no serious beef with anyone - they do not know even how baluhya or kalenjin or luo look like - they are middle of nowhere.

   RV I always admire your indepth  analysis especially when backed by numbers.  However this war talk is unbecoming of someone your calibre.  As has been proven from the same Yugoslavia you are referring to perpetrators of war have nowhere to hide in the current world.  General Mladic and Karadic were eventually caught.  In Rwanda years down the line even Sabagina who helped alot of Tutsis was eventually convicted.  Talking about war is easy but once you are held to account all the bravado goes away.  It is easy to act in a mob/ crowd but once the dust settles and you are picked up by yourself then...god forbid.  Just look at how the guys who  invaded the US capital have been humbled.  So  do what you are good at.  Give us those analytical political stuff and leave the war talk to the uneducated villagers.