GEMA disunity is what the media is trying to sell. They tried to sell the same in 2013 in Kalenjin land . The ballot is whole ball game.
The propaganda done locally during the last few days and the election day is too much that it significally affects the outcome.
GEMA Counties have the status quo lead on registered voters all together . In as Much as they have lower target achievement levels . They still lead in the number of newly registered voters.
Ruto will focus on RV , Gema and North Eastern and try to top it up with Non GEMA votes.
There is noway Kalonzo will come down from a DP candidacy post and he wont get it from Ruto.
Kalonzo also has no financial muscle meaning he is going back to Raila thats the only formula he has.
Leaving Mudavadi or Wetangula to either bolt out or run with Raila again.Either way as witnessed in 2017 if they decide to stick with Raila a substantial number of Luhya voters will vote for Ruto. If the come to Rutos side then they can claim the Luhya votes for Ruto was thanks to them and in so doing manage to get plum cabinet jobs.
Now about Coast Apart from Mombasa Ruto will win all counties.
These is where Raila will realise that his handshake was mistake.
In 2017 Jubilee in Kilifi where majority of votes are perfomed really poorly 2022 will be a Kissi moment for Ruto just like they did in 2017 and flipped Kissi Nyamira counties.
If you look at which counties Ruto will flip vis a vis Raila you will realise .2022 elections is done and dusted. This doesnt mean Ruto should sleep until 2022 elections No. Actually Ruto should go hard on his opponents .
Or lets put this simply which Counties will Raila flip ?
In Mt Kenya Counties with exception of Kiambu . Ruto will score 85% and above. Nakuru (combination of Kalenjin Kikuyus ) Thats an assured Ruto basket. Mt Kenya East are even happier with Ruto. Meru, Embu Kirinyaga & Tharaka Nithi unlike their brothers and sisters from Kikuyu are more emotional and they vote with their hearts .
Muranga and Nyeri they simply hate Raila . Laikipia ,Nyandarua will always follow their brothers and sisters from Central same with Mt Kenyans in Kajiado, Narok and Nairobi.
I think you underate the political might of GEMA. With the new constituition there is no way you can win Presidency without GEMA. After 2013 elections Raila realised this hence he pursued the OKOA Kenya Constituional change which failed before 2017 from figures he knew its impossible to win if GEMA partner with another tribe he tried to force a Nusu mkate Government which he nearly managed but thanks to Ruto failed.
Thats why he secretley went to talks with Uhuru. Without the 3 other NASA leaders.Railas calculation was to appease Uhuru get a referendumn and use the referendum to turn Mt Kenyas against Ruto. It failed miserably. Now he is trying to appease Mt Kenya directly he fail miserably.
If I was to advice Raila I would tell him Tosha someone and the dynamics will change drastically.
It all depends
1) GEMA are disunited - even in Raila camp - almost everyone want to become DPORK. In Ruto camp the same. Outside Kiunjuri is pissing, Kuria creating tantrums and martha as always confused. There is Mt kenya East and West. The rift valley part seem settled on Ruto for their own security and peace. There is low turnout in registration and little enthusiasm without a candidate - in election btw two Rs (ruguru 
). Wairia is out there with posters and tv commercial. Kabogo with Beba beba. It's total chaos as their is no apparent Uhuru heir.
All combined I believe GEMA vote will reduce to 25 percent of the national vote. It might get splintered into even 3 camps (Ruto, Raila, internal)- making it effectiveness in national tally very limited.
2) Uhuru and state machinery - aka deep state/system - if they are serious about Raila candidature - will definitely take significant sail off Ruto Mt kenya wave. How much will that dent - I believe upto 30 percent is possible. If Ruto goes to below 60 percent - Ruto gains from Non-GEMA will not be enough to finish off UhuRaila and leave a buffer for rigging.
3) Oka are critical for Raila and end game move by Ruto. With either of OKOA principles- even Ruto scoring 40 percent of Mt kenya can still win. I dont agree that Ruto signing any of OKA will elicit negative reaction - like Ruto talking to Raila. The is simply no Anti-Kalonzo or Anti-MaDVD sentiments in there.
Ruto as of now can win - by 51 percent - while fighting Uhuru - and without any OKA. But worse case scenario if Mt kenya splinter and Uhuru goes hard...he will come down to 47 percent - and will need at least a Wetangula to get there....
Bottomline for me if I was Ruto - Mt Kenya should now be non-critical play - the real critical play is to prize off one or two OKA principles - and then go back to GEMA - and give them remainder. GEMA still have chance to get 40 percent but realistically the more they splinter the more they reduce their negotiating power. If they give Ruto 15 percent - of his tally - they will be entitled to about 30 percent of gov. Kambas or Luhyas can fill the void - and take 20-25 percent. Ruto will take 50 percent for pastoralist+coast.
If Ruto get Kalonzo - without giving him DPORK - that will end the game for Raila - he would need 100 percent of GEMA to win. Mt kenya hustlers will be happy with DPORK like Gachagua - and Ruto will play for even 40 percent of Mt kenya and still win.
I cant stop retaliating that Ruto needs Gema vs going against Gema.
RV the propasal of trying to get Kalonzo to partner with Ruto will make Mt Kenya bolt out period.
In 2002 Moi and Uhuru had the Government machinery but still lost out. Im 2013 Mudavadi was to get the Govt Machinery but Govt decided to sit out after seeing how the UhuRuto wave was unbeatable.
Bottom line Kalonzo will be Railas running mate. Secondly this is something people are realising now with the new constitution . It is impossible to win the Presidency without Mt Kenya. Ruto put it blanyly in 2013 he had to go to Rift Valley and tell them of we go with Raila or stand alone . Mt Kenya will unite with Luhyas and bag this thing. We have to be in Government.
Now back to the basics . Ruto needs Raila to become President .
Ive said this before when reality comes in just as it was in 1997 Mt Kenyans will vote for Ruto. In 2002 KANUs and Uhuru budget dwarfed NARC but NARC won the elections like KANU never campaigned. Lastly if you note Uhuru is sublimally politicking against Ruto .He is not attacking him directly not even mentioning his name. Kenyan politics since the introduction of Multipartism has been Gema Vs Anti Gema Narrative thinking you can change that by a stroke of pen is being dumb. It took Uhuru 1997 , 2002 and 2007 elections to realise that.
Moi tried to change the narrative he was shown the middle finger in 2002, Mudavadi, Uhuru and Kibaki tried to change that in 2013 it took Ruto and the masses to tell them Uhuru you are not a factor GEMA is a factor.
Topic: Njuri Ncheke - Listen to Babu - no need for violence. (Read 5148 times)