It will probably be 10-20yrs before Avacado market will become saturated. The Californias and those using irrigation will abandoned it. For now we need to concentrate on this. I think kenyans general eat a lot of avacado. Even before exports - avacado consumption locally was high - I think we produce 300k - and export only 80k metric tonnes. Personally I grew up eating a lot of avacados from our own orchard. Nearly everyone had one avacado tree in our village. It requires zero maintenance and like tea it doesnt get sick.
Anything for me is better than wasting land in maize, wheat and sugarcane. Entire western kenya, parts of rift valley and Gusii nyanza represent wasted agriculture potential.
The fact that we can export - mean in terms of value chain - it almost like manufacturing - it has huge multiplier effect - than our useless maize.One avacado farmer can employ one packer - one truck - to mombasa or airport - then ship - and all related brokers - then forex. That is huge value chain.
There are many so called superfoods , hell even regular sukama wiki is a superfood. While anything to improve incomes is welcome, its nice to taper down the forecast. Production acreage is increasing in Caribbean, latin america and Asia, the supply will soon outstrip demand, depressing prices further. Apart from increasing production we should create our own Kenyan brand, expand domestic market and if possible create a big Avocado virgin oil market. Prices of Fresh commodities with short shelf life are notoriously volatile one of the reason why there are no futures contract on exchanges.