Mount Kenya is all Ruto

[vooke]

• Tweet

Enter the era of disputing opinion polls

I doubt picking a Mount Kenya running mate will change any of this.

But Ruto should be worried. 57% is pathetic for all his investment in the region

[RV Pundit]

That means they are a lot of undecided..Ruto only need 50 percent of mt Kenya turning up at 10 percent less of Uhuru to Nick this because he has national base..Uhuru was very hard sale everywhere apart from gusii...he needed kalenjin Ruto dpork to sell in many areas.Ruto is so strong alone nationally..yet he still has coalition moves to make

[Nowayhaha]

I dont trust Opinion polls and I wonder why they didnt include Meru vounty in their survey.
Having mentioned that if we were to take yhis opinion poll as plain truth most of the undecided voters go with majority meaning the 17 % would go Ruto way meaning he would gather 57%+17% aroumd 74% If the Mutuas and Kibwana wont run as expected expect Ruto get more than 80% of the vote.
When the battle starts proper and throwing of words which will make people emotional Ruto will manage 85%
He should also not shy away from the Hustler vs dynasty narrative.

[Fairandbalanced]

I have said it here before very clearly, Mt Kenya, kikuyu dominated area will top at 60% turnout, this will be a turnout election, if Luhyas, Kambas, Luos, Coasterians can be highly motivated, then this will be a dogfight. I expect Raila to take Nairobi by big margins.

[Njuri Ncheke]

I think if things remaining the same,Ruto still wins first round. The only change will occur if oka or baba tosha each other then we can expect a second round.
Kalonzo losing in a mere ward contest in ukambani and UDA coming second speaks volumes.

[RV Pundit]

I believe Raila has no support of his own. This is Uhuru/Jubilee remaining support. If Uhuru pulls out his support - Raila drops back to usual 2 percent. Ruto is doing extremely well standing on his own..without even nominating DPORK from GEMA and against Uhuru..he has 75 percent support.

I dont trust Opinion polls and I wonder why they didnt include Meru vounty in their survey.
Having mentioned that if we were to take yhis opinion poll as plain truth most of the undecided voters go with majority meaning the 17 % would go Ruto way meaning he would gather 57%+17% aroumd 74% If the Mutuas and Kibwana wont run as expected expect Ruto get more than 80% of the vote.
When the battle starts proper and throwing of words which will make people emotional Ruto will manage 85%
He should also not shy away from the Hustler vs dynasty narrative.

[Nowayhaha]

If Raila Toshas someone else . Ruto will be in problems.
Politics is simple science . Ruto just like 2013 should try ws much as possible to avoid a second round. And he should go out bare knuckles. Raila has changed strategy and he is already aping and countering him with the same message of empowerment and avoiding the Hustler is taka taka narrative. Ruto should trick him back to the Hustler vs Dynasty narrative Raila always blunders when he try to say him , Mudavadi, Musalia and Moi are not Dynasty.

I think if things remaining the same,Ruto still wins first round. The only change will occur if oka or baba tosha each other then we can expect a second round.
Kalonzo losing in a mere ward contest in ukambani and UDA coming second speaks volumes.

[Arcadian_Dreamer]

They start denying polls when Baba picks up steam  majabu

[Nowayhaha]

Radio Africa owner is a dear friend of Raila, their policy is geared to propping up Raila.
Now since the polls used to tell us Kalonzo was going to win 2007 elections then midway changed it without any scietific evidence to Raila , I knew polls were bought and they were being used as tool yo influence  the outcome of the polls and also to set stage for refusal of the election outcome.
In 2013 We outed the Ambithos about this strategy and as cleatly noticed she has never been interested again on these type of polls or maybe frankly putting ODM nolonger Pay her to do them.
 Im very sure why Radio Africa has done back to back on these type of polls and specifically in Mt Kenya region is to lie to Kenyans Raila is gaining ground in Mt Kenya.
That is not happening and wont happen.

They start denying polls when Baba picks up steam  majabu

[RV Pundit]

Ruto just need to stay alive! That should be his top strategy otherwise even when I run his worse case scenario - at this point - he is very strong. Stronger than anyone has ever been. Uhuru needed Ruto. Raila needs Kalonzo+Uhuru+entire OKA lineup to have a shot. On his own - he is death. If OKA refuse to play - he is dead. If Uhuru pulls his troops - he is dead even more.

If I was Ruto I would concentrate more on personal security - otherwise everything is in place - even before he offers DPORK and other positions

If Raila Toshas someone else . Ruto will be in problems.
Politics is simple science . Ruto just like 2013 should try ws much as possible to avoid a second round. And he should go out bare knuckles. Raila has changed strategy and he is already aping and countering him with the same message of empowerment and avoiding the Hustler is taka taka narrative. Ruto should trick him back to the Hustler vs Dynasty narrative Raila always blunders when he try to say him , Mudavadi, Musalia and Moi are not Dynasty.

[Nowayhaha]

One thing I learnt with regime changing elections in both 2002 and 2013 elections is the power of unexpected.
In 2002 elections Moi played the unexpected move by endorsing Uhuru , Kibaki Wamalwa and Ngilu played the unexpected card of coming together , The Killer move was we expected Raila wots case kusimama and negotiate for co-operaion later. He betrayed Nyachaes and endorsed Kibaki.
Mt Kenyans were given 2 people to chose from one was the one being campaigned by Moi and Biwott and the other one whom they had voted for previously in 97 elections .They went with latter atleast 70% or there about.
In 2013 the unexpected moves were Uhuru running as a Mt Kenya candidate after Kibaki and joining forces with Ruto after the 2007 debacle. Railas calculation was they were going to use Kikuyu phobia and  ICC cases yo derail UhuRutos quest for Presidency. By the time they were realising they had miscalculated  they were begging Kalonzo for a coalition and by Kalonzo joining Raila it was also unexpected move. UhuRuto had to play their cards well and stop a run off . That Mudavadi Mademoni move was Iconic.
Now we are watching which moves these political players will make.
Ruto by disengaing from Jubilee managed to whitewash himself. It hard to put all Jubilee failures on him a weapon which would have been Ruthless if Raila had it. Lets see how he navigates the deep waters.

Ruto just need to stay alive! That should be his top strategy otherwise even when I run his worse case scenario - at this point - he is very strong. Stronger than anyone has ever been. Uhuru needed Ruto. Raila needs Kalonzo+Uhuru+entire OKA lineup to have a shot. On his own - he is death. If OKA refuse to play - he is dead. If Uhuru pulls his troops - he is dead even more.

If I was Ruto I would concentrate more on personal security - otherwise everything is in place - even before he offers DPORK and other positions

If Raila Toshas someone else . Ruto will be in problems.
Politics is simple science . Ruto just like 2013 should try ws much as possible to avoid a second round. And he should go out bare knuckles. Raila has changed strategy and he is already aping and countering him with the same message of empowerment and avoiding the Hustler is taka taka narrative. Ruto should trick him back to the Hustler vs Dynasty narrative Raila always blunders when he try to say him , Mudavadi, Musalia and Moi are not Dynasty.

[RV Pundit]

Opinion polls can be massaged or they can genuinely get it wrong. This is why I always do MOAS
But I dont think they are completely way off - and I wont dismiss them.
These people also do internal polling - so folks have the numbers.

Look at this figures - Ruto has a problem with 40-55 yr old in GEMA - these are people who still recovering from Moi terror. The likes of FairBalanced are still traumatized. This group Raila ought to be targetting - by reminding GEMA of Moi terror - while Ruto has to do dynasty versus hustler think to remind kikuyu of unfair maumau civil war that ended up enriching the homeguards and left everyone else poor either in central or shipped to suffer in rift valley. Plus all the other nice stuff like hustler economics...money for poor or youths.

Ruto has been on GEMA for 10yrs so he has been trusted and accepted. Raila has a long way to go - all the support he has - is Uhuru's latent base...if Uhuru dump him like I suspect he will...he will be DOA.

2007 - Raila overtook Kalonzo - cleanly - Kalonzo just kept looking himself at mirror - in stead of seizing the Non-GEMA anger and especially Kalenjin bitterness.

This is like Mwangi Kiunjuri and how he has lost the plot.

Politics you need to be aware of the issues - and seize them - by doing propaganda.

Ruto is very good. Raila is great. The rest of kenya politicians are useless. Uhuru would have been nothing without Moi and later Ruto. He doesnt know politics. The same with Kibaki - he is very useless as politician.

Matiba knew politics - but diabetes gave him a stroke that damaged him.

One thing I learnt with regime changing elections in both 2002 and 2013 elections is the power of unexpected.
In 2002 elections Moi played the unexpected move by endorsing Uhuru , Kibaki Wamalwa and Ngilu played the unexpected card of coming together , The Killer move was we expected Raila wots case kusimama and negotiate for co-operaion later. He betrayed Nyachaes and endorsed Kibaki.
Mt Kenyans were given 2 people to chose from one was the one being campaigned by Moi and Biwott and the other one whom they had voted for previously in 97 elections .They went with latter atleast 70% or there about.
In 2013 the unexpected moves were Uhuru running as a Mt Kenya candidate after Kibaki and joining forces with Ruto after the 2007 debacle. Railas calculation was they were going to use Kikuyu phobia and  ICC cases yo derail UhuRutos quest for Presidency. By the time they were realising they had miscalculated  they were begging Kalonzo for a coalition and by Kalonzo joining Raila it was also unexpected move. UhuRuto had to play their cards well and stop a run off . That Mudavadi Mademoni move was Iconic.
Now we are watching which moves these political players will make.
Ruto by disengaing from Jubilee managed to whitewash himself. It hard to put all Jubilee failures on him a weapon which would have been Ruthless if Raila had it. Lets see how he navigates the deep waters.

Ruto just need to stay alive! That should be his top strategy otherwise even when I run his worse case scenario - at this point - he is very strong. Stronger than anyone has ever been. Uhuru needed Ruto. Raila needs Kalonzo+Uhuru+entire OKA lineup to have a shot. On his own - he is death. If OKA refuse to play - he is dead. If Uhuru pulls his troops - he is dead even more.

If I was Ruto I would concentrate more on personal security - otherwise everything is in place - even before he offers DPORK and other positions

If Raila Toshas someone else . Ruto will be in problems.
Politics is simple science . Ruto just like 2013 should try ws much as possible to avoid a second round. And he should go out bare knuckles. Raila has changed strategy and he is already aping and countering him with the same message of empowerment and avoiding the Hustler is taka taka narrative. Ruto should trick him back to the Hustler vs Dynasty narrative Raila always blunders when he try to say him , Mudavadi, Musalia and Moi are not Dynasty.

[Kichwa]

useless, the elections are not being held tomorrow. I would not pay it any mind if the polls said RAO was winning.   Its the final polls that count.

[Nowayhaha]

I can clearly show you how wrong they have been for the last 20 years or so. So wrong they have been untill they have run out of business. Many a times they have tried to rebrand but still nil business . Corprates have decided to shun them due to their unreliabilty.
How can Ruto have a problem with age braclet of 40-55 year olds. 20 years ago when Railas was leading the Anti Kibaki ans Anti Gema campaigms they wer 20-35 years. where as Ruto could have endeared to the newer generation the 40-55 age bracket are the Anti Raila voting group  especially the females .

Kalonzo so called handsome face was the narrative ODM through Miguna used to destroy him poltically. Kalonzo mistake as was also in 2013 is lack of strategy. In 2013 he would have been alittle bit patient he would now be edging out with Ruto for Presidency in the same party.
Its even worse for him now as his advisors are his party members who have to do sycophancy and at the same time advice him.

Elaborate ehen you say Matiba knew politics ?

Opinion polls can be massaged or they can genuinely get it wrong. This is why I always do MOAS
But I dont think they are completely way off - and I wont dismiss them.
These people also do internal polling - so folks have the numbers.

Look at this figures - Ruto has a problem with 40-55 yr old in GEMA - these are people who still recovering from Moi terror. The likes of FairBalanced are still traumatized. This group Raila ought to be targetting - by reminding GEMA of Moi terror - while Ruto has to do dynasty versus hustler think to remind kikuyu of unfair maumau civil war that ended up enriching the homeguards and left everyone else poor either in central or shipped to suffer in rift valley. Plus all the other nice stuff like hustler economics...money for poor or youths.

Ruto has been on GEMA for 10yrs so he has been trusted and accepted. Raila has a long way to go - all the support he has - is Uhuru's latent base...if Uhuru dump him like I suspect he will...he will be DOA.

2007 - Raila overtook Kalonzo - cleanly - Kalonzo just kept looking himself at mirror - in stead of seizing the Non-GEMA anger and especially Kalenjin bitterness.

This is like Mwangi Kiunjuri and how he has lost the plot.

Politics you need to be aware of the issues - and seize them - by doing propaganda.

Ruto is very good. Raila is great. The rest of kenya politicians are useless. Uhuru would have been nothing without Moi and later Ruto. He doesnt know politics. The same with Kibaki - he is very useless as politician.

Matiba knew politics - but diabetes gave him a stroke that damaged him.

One thing I learnt with regime changing elections in both 2002 and 2013 elections is the power of unexpected.
In 2002 elections Moi played the unexpected move by endorsing Uhuru , Kibaki Wamalwa and Ngilu played the unexpected card of coming together , The Killer move was we expected Raila wots case kusimama and negotiate for co-operaion later. He betrayed Nyachaes and endorsed Kibaki.
Mt Kenyans were given 2 people to chose from one was the one being campaigned by Moi and Biwott and the other one whom they had voted for previously in 97 elections .They went with latter atleast 70% or there about.
In 2013 the unexpected moves were Uhuru running as a Mt Kenya candidate after Kibaki and joining forces with Ruto after the 2007 debacle. Railas calculation was they were going to use Kikuyu phobia and  ICC cases yo derail UhuRutos quest for Presidency. By the time they were realising they had miscalculated  they were begging Kalonzo for a coalition and by Kalonzo joining Raila it was also unexpected move. UhuRuto had to play their cards well and stop a run off . That Mudavadi Mademoni move was Iconic.
Now we are watching which moves these political players will make.
Ruto by disengaing from Jubilee managed to whitewash himself. It hard to put all Jubilee failures on him a weapon which would have been Ruthless if Raila had it. Lets see how he navigates the deep waters.

Ruto just need to stay alive! That should be his top strategy otherwise even when I run his worse case scenario - at this point - he is very strong. Stronger than anyone has ever been. Uhuru needed Ruto. Raila needs Kalonzo+Uhuru+entire OKA lineup to have a shot. On his own - he is death. If OKA refuse to play - he is dead. If Uhuru pulls his troops - he is dead even more.

If I was Ruto I would concentrate more on personal security - otherwise everything is in place - even before he offers DPORK and other positions

If Raila Toshas someone else . Ruto will be in problems.
Politics is simple science . Ruto just like 2013 should try ws much as possible to avoid a second round. And he should go out bare knuckles. Raila has changed strategy and he is already aping and countering him with the same message of empowerment and avoiding the Hustler is taka taka narrative. Ruto should trick him back to the Hustler vs Dynasty narrative Raila always blunders when he try to say him , Mudavadi, Musalia and Moi are not Dynasty.

[Nowayhaha]

Thank you final polls matter but still you always cry they didnt matter in 2013 and 2017.

useless, the elections are not being held tomorrow. I would not pay it any mind if the polls said RAO was winning.   Its the final polls that count.

[RV Pundit]

I have had small issues with opinion pollsters - and of course MOASS beat them - but they are not useless. Take them as general guide...they error prone and in kenya they get manipulated.

For instance this one - was probably conducted and massaged to give Baba hope in Mt kenya.

Matiba knew politics - because he was a populist. Politics is propaganda. Ruto is very good in that area and so is Raila. If you cannot spin a believable yarn or propaganda - you will not go far in politics.

I can clearly show you how wrong they have been for the last 20 years or so. So wrong they have been untill they have run out of business. Many a times they have tried to rebrand but still nil business . Corprates have decided to shun them due to their unreliabilty.
How can Ruto have a problem with age braclet of 40-55 year olds. 20 years ago when Railas was leading the Anti Kibaki ans Anti Gema campaigms they wer 20-35 years. where as Ruto could have endeared to the newer generation the 40-55 age bracket are the Anti Raila voting group  especially the females .

Kalonzo so called handsome face was the narrative ODM through Miguna used to destroy him poltically. Kalonzo mistake as was also in 2013 is lack of strategy. In 2013 he would have been alittle bit patient he would now be edging out with Ruto for Presidency in the same party.
Its even worse for him now as his advisors are his party members who have to do sycophancy and at the same time advice him.

Elaborate ehen you say Matiba knew politics ?

[Nowayhaha]

Its clear as light and day its manipulated with certain intentions.
Why dont they make such a poll in battle zones like Coast and Nyanza ?
Seems highly likely Ruto will edge out Raila in Mijikenda and tie with Raila in Luhya land.

I have had small issues with opinion pollsters - and of course MOASS beat them - but they are not useless. Take them as general guide...they error prone and in kenya they get manipulated.

For instance this one - was probably conducted and massaged to give Baba hope in Mt kenya.

Matiba knew politics - because he was a populist. Politics is propaganda. Ruto is very good in that area and so is Raila. If you cannot spin a believable yarn or propaganda - you will not go far in politics.

I can clearly show you how wrong they have been for the last 20 years or so. So wrong they have been untill they have run out of business. Many a times they have tried to rebrand but still nil business . Corprates have decided to shun them due to their unreliabilty.
How can Ruto have a problem with age braclet of 40-55 year olds. 20 years ago when Railas was leading the Anti Kibaki ans Anti Gema campaigms they wer 20-35 years. where as Ruto could have endeared to the newer generation the 40-55 age bracket are the Anti Raila voting group  especially the females .

Kalonzo so called handsome face was the narrative ODM through Miguna used to destroy him poltically. Kalonzo mistake as was also in 2013 is lack of strategy. In 2013 he would have been alittle bit patient he would now be edging out with Ruto for Presidency in the same party.
Its even worse for him now as his advisors are his party members who have to do sycophancy and at the same time advice him.

Elaborate ehen you say Matiba knew politics ?

[Kichwa]

another long winded description of useless.

I have had small issues with opinion pollsters - and of course MOASS beat them - but they are not useless. Take them as general guide...they error prone and in kenya they get manipulated.

For instance this one - was probably conducted and massaged to give Baba hope in Mt kenya.

Matiba knew politics - because he was a populist. Politics is propaganda. Ruto is very good in that area and so is Raila. If you cannot spin a believable yarn or propaganda - you will not go far in politics.

I can clearly show you how wrong they have been for the last 20 years or so. So wrong they have been untill they have run out of business. Many a times they have tried to rebrand but still nil business . Corprates have decided to shun them due to their unreliabilty.
How can Ruto have a problem with age braclet of 40-55 year olds. 20 years ago when Railas was leading the Anti Kibaki ans Anti Gema campaigms they wer 20-35 years. where as Ruto could have endeared to the newer generation the 40-55 age bracket are the Anti Raila voting group  especially the females .

Kalonzo so called handsome face was the narrative ODM through Miguna used to destroy him poltically. Kalonzo mistake as was also in 2013 is lack of strategy. In 2013 he would have been alittle bit patient he would now be edging out with Ruto for Presidency in the same party.
Its even worse for him now as his advisors are his party members who have to do sycophancy and at the same time advice him.

Elaborate ehen you say Matiba knew politics ?

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Enter the era of disputing opinion polls

I doubt picking a Mount Kenya running mate will change any of this.

But Ruto should be worried. 57% is pathetic for all his investment in the region

Kivumbi campaign rallies have not started yet. Raila and his team needs to eat good, exercise, and pray. By election day, DP will have shook hands with every Kenyan. Making contact to regular folk and funding their hustle is the key here! Boatload of cash just arrived!