At this point, everyone is running and no one is winning in the first round. I have opined that this election will be won by the person who is able to cobble a majority coalition in the second round, I highly doubt Mudavadi, Kalonzo na kadhalika will want anything to do with Ruto but you can never be 100% certain. I personally think Raila will be the 5th but with a promise to implement BBI and bring others on board after the elections.