Between 2017 and 2021 Only 3 Million New ID Cards Collected

[Nowayhaha]

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Goes To Tell You why the comming of age voters dont make any significant impact in elections .

Now of the 3 Million new voters another 30 % wont register as votees and then a further 30 % wont  vote during D Day.

One good reason to avoid using Population as precasour to gauge Election results.

The figure falls squarely in the projection that IEBC has given as the total number of new voters it is seeking to enlist.

From the 5.62 million applications, the agency produced 5.31 million cards but only 3.62 million have been collected, raising questions about the whereabouts of over 1.7 million ID cards that are pending in registration offices countrywide.

The electoral agency, IEBC, says it wants to enlist six million new voters who had not turned 18 by 2017 or who were eligible but had failed to register

https://nation.africa/kenya/news/puzzle-of-missing-1-7m-potential-new-voters--3552568

[RV Pundit]

You're woried that Mt kenya vote weight will reduce? Ama?
So based on your logic - it means there is backlog of voters pre-2017 - who had IDs but did not register - and will have now matured or come of age.
I think unless covid is big factor - we will see the same projection.

I expect increase from 19m - to 25m. In 2013 - it's was 14m - and we did 5m jump to 19m - so this year it possible we will have jump of 6-7m to 25-26m.

The reality for you is that GEMA population and registered voters will eventually sync...to 23 percent or about...as others also transition into similar demographic profile.

Nationally from 2016 - the inflection happened - where we now have less kids born national every year.

Goes To Tell You why the comming of age voters dont make any significant impact in elections .

Now of the 3 Million new voters another 30 % wont register as votees and then a further 30 % wont  vote during D Day.

One good reason to avoid using Population as precasour to gauge Election results.

The figure falls squarely in the projection that IEBC has given as the total number of new voters it is seeking to enlist.

From the 5.62 million applications, the agency produced 5.31 million cards but only 3.62 million have been collected, raising questions about the whereabouts of over 1.7 million ID cards that are pending in registration offices countrywide.

The electoral agency, IEBC, says it wants to enlist six million new voters who had not turned 18 by 2017 or who were eligible but had failed to register

https://nation.africa/kenya/news/puzzle-of-missing-1-7m-potential-new-voters--3552568

[Nowayhaha]

How is GEMA coming In . Im just saying in an election year 18-23 years  rarely vote . So if you bank on that lot you will be dissapointed. Again This is universal unless they are hyped like Obama did in 2008 and Uhuru in 2013.
Uhuru tried to entyce that demography in 2002 and he was really dissapointed.

Now on your second point  the jump im electorate numbers is generally because of people who had ID previously but never registered Mostly between age 25-35. People who have started families and realise importance of voting or rather become passionate about politics .

About population change Im well aware off. I have seen it in my own eyes three times and concluded what matters is economy.

You're woried that Mt kenya vote weight will reduce? Ama?
So based on your logic - it means there is backlog of voters pre-2017 - who had IDs but did not register - and will have now matured or come of age.
I think unless covid is big factor - we will see the same projection.

I expect increase from 19m - to 25m. In 2013 - it's was 14m - and we did 5m jump to 19m - so this year it possible we will have jump of 6-7m to 25-26m.

The reality for you is that GEMA population and registered voters will eventually sync...to 23 percent or about...as others also transition into similar demographic profile.

Nationally from 2016 - the inflection happened - where we now have less kids born national every year.

Goes To Tell You why the comming of age voters dont make any significant impact in elections .

Now of the 3 Million new voters another 30 % wont register as votees and then a further 30 % wont  vote during D Day.

One good reason to avoid using Population as precasour to gauge Election results.

The figure falls squarely in the projection that IEBC has given as the total number of new voters it is seeking to enlist.

From the 5.62 million applications, the agency produced 5.31 million cards but only 3.62 million have been collected, raising questions about the whereabouts of over 1.7 million ID cards that are pending in registration offices countrywide.

The electoral agency, IEBC, says it wants to enlist six million new voters who had not turned 18 by 2017 or who were eligible but had failed to register

https://nation.africa/kenya/news/puzzle-of-missing-1-7m-potential-new-voters--3552568

[RV Pundit]

Again without Mt kenya candidate; we may not see enthusiasm of newly registered votes; and the same with turn out; in GEMA.
So generally I expect GEMA share of national vote to drop from 27-28 to 25-26 percent - and I expect to see 5-10 percent drop in turnout.
Mt kenya politicians do not have the incentive to mobilize voters to register or turn out.
I see it's only Raila who has gone out to talk about it with Luos.
I don't know what Ruto gameplan is ...but he is silent.
I generally expect Kalenjin will increase their turn out and registration slighly by 5 percent.
They had dropped by 5 percent - from days when with Luos and Kikuyus - it was playing 88-90 percent.

So generally as strategy for Ruto - Kalenjin increased enthusiasm will cancel out Mt kenya subdued enthusiasm.

As for Raila - well he has to get so many things right - it almost impossible mission.

How is GEMA coming In . Im just saying in an election year 18-23 years  rarely vote . So if you bank on that lot you will be dissapointed. Again This is universal unless they are hyped like Obama did in 2008 and Uhuru in 2013.
Uhuru tried to entyce that demography in 2002 and he was really dissapointed.

Now on your second point  the jump im electorate numbers is generally because of people who had ID previously but never registered Mostly between age 25-35. People who have started families and realise importance of voting or rather become passionate about politics .

About population change Im well aware off. I have seen it in my own eyes three times and concluded what matters is economy.

[Nowayhaha]

Yes what you say is true but also the traditional strongholds of Raila will have a dent in the number of voter registration snd voter turn out. The handshake and BBI disenfranchised alot of voters in Railas strongholds. These were voters who believed Raila is the only one who could destroy GEMA hegemony and it turned out he became the biggest supporter and partner of Uhuru Kenyatta. a substantial number have decided to hell with politics and and a good number have also switched sides to Ruto. Here Im talking of Coast and Western.
Now in regards to Mt Kenya as long as Raila is in the ballot they will wake up as early as 1 AM to go and vote against him. In 1997 how Kibaki played his game is planted his supporters in polling station snd on the D Day had them convincing Mt Kenyans to vote one of their own overlooking his weakness .Thats why you had SDP winning MP seats in parts of Kiambu and Muranga while Kibaki winning the Presidential vote. Ngilu was to get a big number of votes. The mistake she also did she camped in Ukambani when she hears Moi and Kalonzo were rigging elections instead of touring Central . She even missed her big last rally in Uhuru park a day to the D Day.
Ruto should do a Kibaki in Central just plant people kueneza that a vote for him is a vote  against Raila and people will register amd come out in droves.

Again without Mt kenya candidate; we may not see enthusiasm of newly registered votes; and the same with turn out; in GEMA.
So generally I expect GEMA share of national vote to drop from 27-28 to 25-26 percent - and I expect to see 5-10 percent drop in turnout.
Mt kenya politicians do not have the incentive to mobilize voters to register or turn out.
I see it's only Raila who has gone out to talk about it with Luos.
I don't know what Ruto gameplan is ...but he is silent.
I generally expect Kalenjin will increase their turn out and registration slighly by 5 percent.
They had dropped by 5 percent - from days when with Luos and Kikuyus - it was playing 88-90 percent.

So generally as strategy for Ruto - Kalenjin increased enthusiasm will cancel out Mt kenya subdued enthusiasm.

As for Raila - well he has to get so many things right - it almost impossible mission.

How is GEMA coming In . Im just saying in an election year 18-23 years  rarely vote . So if you bank on that lot you will be dissapointed. Again This is universal unless they are hyped like Obama did in 2008 and Uhuru in 2013.
Uhuru tried to entyce that demography in 2002 and he was really dissapointed.

Now on your second point  the jump im electorate numbers is generally because of people who had ID previously but never registered Mostly between age 25-35. People who have started families and realise importance of voting or rather become passionate about politics .

About population change Im well aware off. I have seen it in my own eyes three times and concluded what matters is economy.

[RV Pundit]

Registration will give us clues.

I really doubt that anti-Raila force is strong enough to overcome the general disappointment and remorse by many that 10yrs of their own has not changed their fortunes...especially this last 5yrs of Uhuru.Nobody cares about COVID- all they know is their life is become difficult and miserable under their own...and they blame Uhuru for bringing Raila to JINX Jubilee that was doing well.

I think Uhuru and company have blunted the anti-Raila force - not enough to get him votes - but it's enough to generate equal reaction towards him and dynasties.

I believe many in Mt kenya will wake up to hurt Uhuru and his entitled elites.....for them voting for Ruto is a punishment to Uhuru and his entitled elites.

There is a disconnect btw homeguards and the maumau - if you will - btw the rich elite kikuyus - and the poor - and that is what is driving the anger this election in Mt kenya - so much they do not even want to hear about 50-50 - they want Ruto to take everything

And knowing Ruto - he will take everything   - now start another hate thread - when I state facts. The message from GEMA is LOUD AND CLEAR - RUTO TAKE EVERYTHING FROM OUR UNGRATEFUL LAZY DRUNKARD ELITES AND GIVE US DEVELOPMENT. They want MOU btw Ruto and them directly - that mean Ruto deliver bottom up - he doesnt need MOU with elite

Outside Luos - generally the rest of kenya do not have that extra or lack enthusiasm - and will vote the usual 70 percent - and even 60 percent in coast - and 50 percent in NEP.

For them this election is just as good or as bad as the last one.  We saw huge jump in 2013 - when country turnout moved to 85 percent because of The Excitement around Devolution - Governors - then it dropped to 77 percent - as people were disappointed - and I think we might see a drop to 75 percent - as people continue to feel devolution is NOT WORKING that well - I think previously we use to play around 70-72 national vote turnout.

Yes there is small excitement that it will be non-kikuyu but I doubt it will generate any enthusiasm - because for many of these Non-GEMA people - Raila and Ruto are the same - so generally Ruto and Raila outside their tribes and GEMA - will be doing 50-50.

For rest of Non-GEMA - it's really R versus R - another hate thread loading - ohoo you're a closet Raila supporter.

Yes what you say is true but also the traditional strongholds of Raila will have a dent in the number of voter registration snd voter turn out. The handshake and BBI disenfranchised alot of voters in Railas strongholds. These were voters who believed Raila is the only one who could destroy GEMA hegemony and it turned out he became the biggest supporter and partner of Uhuru Kenyatta. a substantial number have decided to hell with politics and and a good number have also switched sides to Ruto. Here Im talking of Coast and Western.
Now in regards to Mt Kenya as long as Raila is in the ballot they will wake up as early as 1 AM to go and vote against him. In 1997 how Kibaki played his game is planted his supporters in polling station snd on the D Day had them convincing Mt Kenyans to vote one of their own overlooking his weakness .Thats why you had SDP winning MP seats in parts of Kiambu and Muranga while Kibaki winning the Presidential vote. Ngilu was to get a big number of votes. The mistake she also did she camped in Ukambani when she hears Moi and Kalonzo were rigging elections instead of touring Central . She even missed her big last rally in Uhuru park a day to the D Day.
Ruto should do a Kibaki in Central just plant people kueneza that a vote for him is a vote  against Raila and people will register amd come out in droves.

Again without Mt kenya candidate; we may not see enthusiasm of newly registered votes; and the same with turn out; in GEMA.
So generally I expect GEMA share of national vote to drop from 27-28 to 25-26 percent - and I expect to see 5-10 percent drop in turnout.
Mt kenya politicians do not have the incentive to mobilize voters to register or turn out.
I see it's only Raila who has gone out to talk about it with Luos.
I don't know what Ruto gameplan is ...but he is silent.
I generally expect Kalenjin will increase their turn out and registration slighly by 5 percent.
They had dropped by 5 percent - from days when with Luos and Kikuyus - it was playing 88-90 percent.

So generally as strategy for Ruto - Kalenjin increased enthusiasm will cancel out Mt kenya subdued enthusiasm.

As for Raila - well he has to get so many things right - it almost impossible mission.

How is GEMA coming In . Im just saying in an election year 18-23 years  rarely vote . So if you bank on that lot you will be dissapointed. Again This is universal unless they are hyped like Obama did in 2008 and Uhuru in 2013.
Uhuru tried to entyce that demography in 2002 and he was really dissapointed.

Now on your second point  the jump im electorate numbers is generally because of people who had ID previously but never registered Mostly between age 25-35. People who have started families and realise importance of voting or rather become passionate about politics .

About population change Im well aware off. I have seen it in my own eyes three times and concluded what matters is economy.

[RV Pundit]

Nowayaha, hapa Ruto amepata Jackpot

When it comes to CENTRAL KENYA, the post Uhuru succession, the hope for DP RUTO in Mt Kenya region and his competitors...who is setting the agenda and showing the political way forward?

— Ahmednasir Abdullahi SC (@ahmednasirlaw) September 17, 2021