Kiunjuri sets 1M1V1S irreducible minimum for Mt Kenya foreigners

[Nefertiti]

Ruto is more like a political tenderpreneur - starting and trading off companies. For quick returns. URP pastoralist party he quickly sold off to Jubilee - now on deathbed.

UDA of course is not a national party - running is not the same as winning. Or opening offices all over. ODM could easily field everywhere too - and get 10 to 20% like UDA in Kamba.

A NATIONAL PARTY - needs to exist at least a few election cycles - and perform beyond one tribe. ODM is a national party. Wiper or ANC is tribal party. Jubilee - Ruto's biggest achievement - was national for 2 minutes - August 2017 to March 2018 

Now UDA - 1 MP - is already facing coalition demands from its ONLY proper non-tribal base. Has it ever held party elections? When were the officials picked? Is Muthama still chairman - his utility was Machakos by-election? When are they replacing Omar with Jumwa? Is there a UDA manifesto - apart from the Ndii ponzi scheme? If you look closely - you find UDA is only an UPSTART without proper articles of assciation - and now the founders are unable to agree on the ownership. Ruto claim to be 100% owner - his cohorts are aghast - they think Kalenjin are only 50% owner.

See? Unless national has a new meaning. We don't know if UDA will survive one election cycle. Even dead Jubilee has a better record at this point.

Ruto is national leader - kalenjin are part of kenyan nation - but clearly Ruto even by 2013 - URP party had significant support from pastoralist - now based on opinion polls he is at 50 percent - and MOAS has him at 53 percent.

MaDVD is a sub-luhya nation leader. Kalonzo is Kamba nation leader. These are facts.It doesnt mean Ruto has to win everywhere - then he will become Kagame who wins with 98 percent. I believe in 2027 - Ruto will get near there.
We have by-election in Makueni - it's Wiper versus UDA. If we have any election in kenya - it will be UDA versus some tribal party.

Raila once had roughly half kenya - and now would be about jubilee 170mps - now as we speak he has 62 mps - 40 mps from Luos and 20 Mps from Mijikenda. Now Mijikenda are leaving him. That mean he is becoming a Luo leader. Those are just facts. Next election I see ODM struggling to get 40Mps.

In 10th parliament - it was 105 out of 210 mps.
In 11th parliament - it was 96mps out of 350 - Ruto took off with 78mps
In 12th parliament - it down to 62mps - Ruto took off another 30mps almost.

Now Ruto and Kingi - are circicling the remaining last non-luo bastion of ODM - at the coast

13th parliament - 35 Mps - he will lose some in Luo Nyanza if he mismanage ODM.

Facts are so stubborn - even if you have me banned

[RV Pundit]

Kenya parties including ODM are personality cults. There is no national party in kenya that transcend it leadership like in US or Tanzania. If Raila dies today - ODM dies.

UDA is Ruto - RUto is now a national leader. If today he wakes up and say form ADU - people will follow him - kalenjin, gema and the rest.

Ruto is more like a political tenderpreneur - starting and trading off companies. For quick returns. URP pastoralist party he quickly sold off to Jubilee - now on deathbed.

UDA of course is not a national party - running is not the same as winning. Or opening offices all over. ODM could easily field everywhere too - and get 10 to 20% like UDA in Kamba.

A NATIONAL PARTY - needs to exist at least a few election cycles - and perform beyond one tribe. ODM is a national party. Wiper or ANC is tribal party. Jubilee - Ruto's biggest achievement - was national for 2 minutes - August 2017 to March 2018 

Now UDA - 1 MP - is already facing coalition demands from its ONLY proper non-tribal base. Has it ever held party elections? When were the officials picked? Is Muthama still chairman - his utility was Machakos by-election? When are they replacing Omar with Jumwa? Is there a UDA manifesto - apart from the Ndii ponzi scheme? If you look closely - you find UDA is only an UPSTART without proper articles of assciation - and now the founders are unable to agree on the ownership. Ruto claim to be 100% owner - his cohorts are aghast - they think Kalenjin are only 50% owner.

See? Unless national has a new meaning. We don't know if UDA will survive one election cycle. Even dead Jubilee has a better record at this point.

Ruto is national leader - kalenjin are part of kenyan nation - but clearly Ruto even by 2013 - URP party had significant support from pastoralist - now based on opinion polls he is at 50 percent - and MOAS has him at 53 percent.

MaDVD is a sub-luhya nation leader. Kalonzo is Kamba nation leader. These are facts.It doesnt mean Ruto has to win everywhere - then he will become Kagame who wins with 98 percent. I believe in 2027 - Ruto will get near there.
We have by-election in Makueni - it's Wiper versus UDA. If we have any election in kenya - it will be UDA versus some tribal party.

Raila once had roughly half kenya - and now would be about jubilee 170mps - now as we speak he has 62 mps - 40 mps from Luos and 20 Mps from Mijikenda. Now Mijikenda are leaving him. That mean he is becoming a Luo leader. Those are just facts. Next election I see ODM struggling to get 40Mps.

In 10th parliament - it was 105 out of 210 mps.
In 11th parliament - it was 96mps out of 350 - Ruto took off with 78mps
In 12th parliament - it down to 62mps - Ruto took off another 30mps almost.

Now Ruto and Kingi - are circicling the remaining last non-luo bastion of ODM - at the coast

13th parliament - 35 Mps - he will lose some in Luo Nyanza if he mismanage ODM.

Facts are so stubborn - even if you have me banned

[Nefertiti]

There have been ODM MPs, governors, etc in most corners of Kenya - 15 yr+ Let compare notes when Ruto manages that. Not 1yr UDM. 3 yr URP. 6 mths Jubilee. 2 weeks UDA.

Ruto cannot maintain a cult past a few years. No discipline. No leadership. No nothing.

Kenya parties including ODM are personality cults. There is no national party in kenya that transcend it leadership like in US or Tanzania. If Raila dies today - ODM dies.

UDA is Ruto - RUto is now a national leader. If today he wakes up and say form ADU - people will follow him - kalenjin, gema and the rest.

[RV Pundit]

KANU has been here for longer. ODM inherited part of KANU when Raila took off. The KANU constitutency that Moi had maintained for 25yrs and kept in power - Raila has totally misused it - and Ruto was keen to take it back.

Ruto has not only taken back most of Moi KANU from Raila - but also added huge part of GEMA - that is why he is unbeatable in 2022.

There have been ODM MPs, governors, etc in most corners of Kenya - 15 yr+ Let compare notes when Ruto manages that. Not 1yr UDM. 3 yr URP. 6 mths Jubilee. 2 weeks UDA.

Ruto cannot maintain a cult past a few years. No discipline. No leadership. No nothing.

[Nefertiti]

I am saying let talk when Ruto wins PORK. Uhuru level. Or at least manage a national party for 2 electoral cycles. Raila level. Hii UDA 2 months old baby - is proof of nothing. ODM is 15 yrs old.

The only national party William Ruto has built is Jubilee - which imploded after 6 months. The man did his mlolongo crazy cheating and was literally chased. Then he wails ati ameomewa.

Now his Gema allies already don't trust the guy - despite endless investment in time, energy, money - they want coalition. Talk is very cheap.

KANU has been here for longer. ODM inherited part of KANU when Raila took off. The KANU constitutency that Moi had maintained for 25yrs and kept in power - Raila has totally misused it - and Ruto was keen to take it back.

Ruto has not only taken back most of Moi KANU from Raila - but also added huge part of GEMA - that is why he is unbeatable in 2022.

[RV Pundit]

UDA for all practical reason is Jubilee - and last I checked UDA meetings are attracting 150mps - and more are defecting - I think Kuttuny is about to join. Of the Jubilee Mps - we have about 15mps remaining with Uhuru.

But if you're interested in useless polemics - then UDA has one official MP - and one independent leaning one.

I am saying let talk when Ruto wins PORK. Uhuru level. Or at least manage a national party for 2 electoral cycles. Raila level. Hii UDA 2 months old baby - is proof of nothing. ODM is 15 yrs old.

The only national party William Ruto has built is Jubilee - which imploded after 6 months. The man did his mlolongo crazy cheating and was literally chased. Then he wails ati ameomewa.

Now his Gema allies already don't trust the guy - despite endless investment in time, energy, money - they want coalition. Talk is very cheap.

KANU has been here for longer. ODM inherited part of KANU when Raila took off. The KANU constitutency that Moi had maintained for 25yrs and kept in power - Raila has totally misused it - and Ruto was keen to take it back.

Ruto has not only taken back most of Moi KANU from Raila - but also added huge part of GEMA - that is why he is unbeatable in 2022.

[Nefertiti]

UDA is quicksand movement. Akin to Rainbow Alliance at best. No it is not Jubilee - at least that one WON an election - and lasted 6 months. I guess you have extremely low standards for Ruto. ODM is not a national party but UDA is national Because they can hold a kamukunji with 150 MPs. Do those MPs even vote for Ruto positions in parliament? Ohoo he lets them vote as they wish.

No, Pundit, UDA is not a national party by any stretch of the imagination. Upstart maybe?

Let us check in a few years.

[RV Pundit]

Strawman argument. UDA is Ruto party. Its not a national party per see but has national support. Its likely to last as long as Ruto has trusted officials - but if Muthama and company - play games - Ruto will form another one.

UDA is quicksand movement. Akin to Rainbow Alliance at best. No it is not Jubilee - at least that one WON an election - and lasted 6 months. I guess you have extremely low standards for Ruto. ODM is not a national party but UDA is national Because they can hold a kamukunji with 150 MPs. Do those MPs even vote for Ruto positions in parliament? Ohoo he lets them vote as they wish.

No, Pundit, UDA is not a national party by any stretch of the imagination. Upstart maybe?

Let us check in a few years.

[hk]

Mt.kenya will have many mps elected from small parties or independents. Kiunjuri was Ruto's jubilee nomination henchman in mt. kenya. He very understands that he needs his own party to be able to demand positions in the next government. Moses Kuria fondly nicknamed kikuyu hero(njamba ya rururi), is even more brunt that Mt.kenya will not join other tribes dominated parties. Even the most ardent Ruto supporters (rigathi, ndindi, ichungwa etc) have recoiled. This is the beginning of peeling away from UDA and Ruto in Mt. kenya. The man to watch is Mudavadi, if he's on the ballot he might shock some people by the amount of support he might get from Mt.kenya. Especially if he were to select Mt. kenya as a running mate. I am no political pundit but there's something brewing in mt.kenya. Obviously I could be totally off the deep end .

[RV Pundit]

On the contrary UDA will sweep all - winning with small margins. In 2013-2017 TNA/Jubilee candidate maybe won with 80 percent - against one or two parties. Now if you put 10 parties - all sharing 50 percent - and UDA say starting at 50 percent - UDA wins with smallest of margins.

The only way to beat UDA in Mt kenya is to have one stronger party like Jubilee tried in Kiambu. 10 parties is handing Ruto the entire Mt kenya Mps on a silver platter.

 So expect results like TSP 10 percent, Kuria CCK 20 percent, Jubilee 15 percent, UDA candidate wins with 40 percent. Next const UDA wins with 35, next with 45, next with 50. In RV - UDA candidates will be winning with 70-80 percent - with other parties getting 30 percent.

That is how Moi won in 1992 and 1997 against the divided opposition.

If all anti-UDA parties unite - then Ruto will do 50-50 - it will be like Kiambu - hit and miss - but 10 parties - with Ruto core assume at even 40 percent - Ruto's UDA will win.

Mt.kenya will have many mps elected from small parties or independents. Kiunjuri was Ruto's jubilee nomination henchman in mt. kenya. He very understands that he needs his own party to be able to demand positions in the next government. Moses Kuria fondly nicknamed kikuyu hero(njamba ya rururi), is even more brunt that Mt.kenya will not join other tribes dominated parties. Even the most ardent Ruto supporters (rigathi, ndindi, ichungwa etc) have recoiled. This is the beginning of peeling away from UDA and Ruto in Mt. kenya. The man to watch is Mudavadi, if he's on the ballot he might shock some people by the amount of support he might get from Mt.kenya. Especially if he were to select Mt. kenya as a running mate. I am no political pundit but there's something brewing in mt.kenya. Obviously I could be totally off the deep end .

[hk]

On the contrary UDA will sweep all - winning with small margins. In 2013-2017 TNA/Jubilee candidate maybe won with 80 percent - against one or two parties. Now if you put 10 parties - all sharing 50 percent - and UDA say starting at 50 percent - UDA wins with smallest of margins.

The only way to beat UDA in Mt kenya is to have one stronger party like Jubilee tried in Kiambu. 10 parties is handing Ruto the entire Mt kenya Mps on a silver platter.

 So expect results like TSP 10 percent, Kuria CCK 20 percent, Jubilee 15 percent, UDA candidate wins with 40 percent. Next const UDA wins with 35, next with 45, next with 50. In RV - UDA candidates will be winning with 70-80 percent - with other parties getting 30 percent.

That is how Moi won in 1992 and 1997 against the divided opposition.

If all anti-UDA parties unite - then Ruto will do 50-50 - it will be like Kiambu - hit and miss - but 10 parties - with Ruto core assume at even 40 percent - Ruto's UDA will win.

Mt.kenya will have many mps elected from small parties or independents. Kiunjuri was Ruto's jubilee nomination henchman in mt. kenya. He very understands that he needs his own party to be able to demand positions in the next government. Moses Kuria fondly nicknamed kikuyu hero(njamba ya rururi), is even more brunt that Mt.kenya will not join other tribes dominated parties. Even the most ardent Ruto supporters (rigathi, ndindi, ichungwa etc) have recoiled. This is the beginning of peeling away from UDA and Ruto in Mt. kenya. The man to watch is Mudavadi, if he's on the ballot he might shock some people by the amount of support he might get from Mt.kenya. Especially if he were to select Mt. kenya as a running mate. I am no political pundit but there's something brewing in mt.kenya. Obviously I could be totally off the deep end .

The assumption being that UDA as a party is very popular in Mt. Kenya? UDA isn't TNA, PNU or Jubilee in Mt.Kenya, And by the way even in kiambaa there were other small parties and independents, but UDA and jubilee candidates were either well funded or well-known. Without a powerful mt.kenya presidential candidate that all Mps aspirant have to associate with, it'll be free for all.

[RV Pundit]

UDA is Ruto. If Ruto is popular then UDA is popular. Yes of course it wont be Jubilee or TNA so it wont win 80 percent. And if all the parties united under some banner - then it will be 50-50.  Like Kiambu - where despite all the parties - it was clear two horse races...after Jubilee saw dust in Juja and got spooked.

Now imagine a scenario where Kuria is selling his candidate, next Kiunjuri sells his own, next Uhuru is selling and financing his Jubilee, next DP, next Narc Kenya. next PN

So the guy who gets UDA ticket - will start with Ruto core support - even if it's 35 percent - he already wins- by the smallest of margins.

Now until Mt kenya find a candidate to rival Ruto - UDA is the party to beat. Raila wont sell. MaDVD maybe . If maDVD was to be endorsed by Uhuru - yeah then Ruto would need worried. But Babaman hiyo ni sleepwalking  to mt kenya peak.

Also internal Mt kenya candidate is still a possibility - if all ant-Ruto forces can unite.

Otherwise UDA if it competes with friendly parties like CCK, TSP and such - will sweep the board with 33 percent of the vote - mps elected with smallest of mandate.

The assumption being that UDA as a party is very popular in Mt. Kenya? UDA isn't TNA, PNU or Jubilee in Mt.Kenya, And by the way even in kiambaa there were other small parties and independents, but UDA and jubilee candidates were either well funded or well-known. Without a powerful mt.kenya presidential candidate that all Mps aspirant have to associate with, it'll be free for all.

[Nowayhaha]

If you are a Raila supporter I will give you free advice. If you can pass it to him.
If he wants to defeat Ruto , he needs to do one of the following
1. Most effective  Show Support to Ruto  ala Hamdshake with Ruto.
2. Secondly Decide to quit politics
3. Tosha Someone else.

If Raila is on ballot come 2022 he will be beaten with worse Margins . This is free advice.

On the contrary UDA will sweep all - winning with small margins. In 2013-2017 TNA/Jubilee candidate maybe won with 80 percent - against one or two parties. Now if you put 10 parties - all sharing 50 percent - and UDA say starting at 50 percent - UDA wins with smallest of margins.

The only way to beat UDA in Mt kenya is to have one stronger party like Jubilee tried in Kiambu. 10 parties is handing Ruto the entire Mt kenya Mps on a silver platter.

 So expect results like TSP 10 percent, Kuria CCK 20 percent, Jubilee 15 percent, UDA candidate wins with 40 percent. Next const UDA wins with 35, next with 45, next with 50. In RV - UDA candidates will be winning with 70-80 percent - with other parties getting 30 percent.

That is how Moi won in 1992 and 1997 against the divided opposition.

If all anti-UDA parties unite - then Ruto will do 50-50 - it will be like Kiambu - hit and miss - but 10 parties - with Ruto core assume at even 40 percent - Ruto's UDA will win.

Mt.kenya will have many mps elected from small parties or independents. Kiunjuri was Ruto's jubilee nomination henchman in mt. kenya. He very understands that he needs his own party to be able to demand positions in the next government. Moses Kuria fondly nicknamed kikuyu hero(njamba ya rururi), is even more brunt that Mt.kenya will not join other tribes dominated parties. Even the most ardent Ruto supporters (rigathi, ndindi, ichungwa etc) have recoiled. This is the beginning of peeling away from UDA and Ruto in Mt. kenya. The man to watch is Mudavadi, if he's on the ballot he might shock some people by the amount of support he might get from Mt.kenya. Especially if he were to select Mt. kenya as a running mate. I am no political pundit but there's something brewing in mt.kenya. Obviously I could be totally off the deep end .

The assumption being that UDA as a party is very popular in Mt. Kenya? UDA isn't TNA, PNU or Jubilee in Mt.Kenya, And by the way even in kiambaa there were other small parties and independents, but UDA and jubilee candidates were either well funded or well-known. Without a powerful mt.kenya presidential candidate that all Mps aspirant have to associate with, it'll be free for all.