Ruto has finally cracked Nairobi

[Nefertiti]

I don't believe Gema are with Ruto because of Raila. Bottom-up lie has captured gullible youth. It is Ruto hustler vs dynasty political brilliance - crafted quickly after Handshake fallout - otherwise Uhuru wanted to lock Ruto out of the entire mountain. Ruto problem is that bottom-up has only worked in Kikuyu - but flopped in non-Gema as seen in by-elections.

Those Pundit MOAS giving Ruto voodoo following in mainstream non-Gema are just wishes. UDA is underperforming united Jubilee 2017 everywhere not just Gema.

[RV Pundit]

Wishful thinking. Kuria is one mp. Of the 68 Mt Kenya Mps - Ruto has nearly 55mps now. Kiambu karibu yote, Nakuru yote, Meru karibu yote, Tharaka yote, Embu karibu yote.

Muturi, Kuria and Kiunjuri are trying to shake Ruto for DPORK and 50-50

But how would Ruto do 50-50 with one Mp - leaving 55 Mps - plus leaders inside UDA tent.

It wont happen. Ruto will tell them to fold camp and join UDA.

If they assemble in Limuru 3 - Ruto Mps in UDA will hold Limuru 4. If they do Sagan 4; Ruto will do Sagana 5. Ruto group will have more credibility with more leaders

Limuru 3 will be Martha, Karua and Kiunjuri - while UDA will have maybe by then 65Mp Jubilee MPs from Meru to Lamu, thousands of MCAs, thousands of UDA aspirants, senators, governors - Limuru 4

Who will GEMA listen to...someone selling TSP or UDA.

Watu wako WHEELBARROW - eti Limuru 3 - they think it a magic wad?

Nowayhaha so long as Kuria & Kiunjuri continue to call Ruto a foreigner - tough luck cracking that 50% ceiling. Kionis and Warugurus will not leave Jubilee for party at war. If they hold Limuru 3 and declare all foreigners are equal - I don't know how Ruto will maintain the charade that all is well in Tangatanga.

Merus, Embus will definitely be happier in local Muturi party.

[RV Pundit]

Only in Gusii/Nyamira and Kajiado do I see Ruto underperforming - I see biggest jump in Turkana - and improvements elsewhere - from coast bla bla.
Stick to facts like I do.
I gave Ruto 20 percent less than Uhuru in Gusii/Nyamira.

And I am yet to figure out GEMA percentage to Ruto.

I am working on it - I will release Final Rough Moas by 30th August.

Those Pundit MOAS giving Ruto voodoo following in mainstream non-Gema are just wishes. UDA is underperforming united Jubilee 2017 everywhere not just Gema.

[Nefertiti]

Every time push comes to shove - BBI, impeachments, etc - these Ruto numbers amount to nothing.

Kiraitus, Waigurus and all governors of course are with Raila/Muturi.

Kuria or Kiunjuri or Gachagua have outsized influence - compared to Kioni or Wamuchomba or Ndindi. Kuria has been instrumental in demonizing Uhuru - now the fox is playing new card. Unless they reach an agreement (maybe exchange some billions) - I don't see Ruto winning. Ruto is Kalenjin alien - always remember that - can very easily be made an enemy.

I know it painful to countenance but it just plain reality.

Wishful thinking. Kuria is one mp. Of the 68 Mt Kenya Mps - Ruto has nearly 55mps now. Kiambu karibu yote, Nakuru yote, Meru karibu yote, Tharaka yote, Embu karibu yote.

Muturi, Kuria and Kiunjuri are trying to shake Ruto for DPORK and 50-50

But how would Ruto do 50-50 with one Mp - leaving 55 Mps - plus leaders inside UDA tent.

It wont happen. Ruto will tell them to fold camp and join UDA

[RV Pundit]

Ruto has never wanted to use the numbers.
This art of war. You choose your battles wisely.
Ruto has told Mps to vote wherever they want.
He is not interested in fighting Uhuru.
The reality Ruto has the people.
The people forces leaders to support Ruto.
Update yourself on Kiraitu - he is running very far from Raila and Uhuru.
The same with Muturi
Any Mt kenya leader who has gone to the ground or is at the ground - knows being anti Ruto is one sure way to go home.

Kiunjuri and Kuria are wrong to imagine they can shake Ruto.

Watch them join UDA and pick their wheelbarrow in less than 3 months.

Every time push comes to shove - BBI, impeachments, etc - these Ruto numbers amount to nothing.

Kiraitus, Waigurus and all governors of course are with Raila/Muturi.

Kuria or Kiunjuri or Gachagua have outsized influence - compared to Kioni or Wamuchomba or Ndindi. Kuria has been instrumental in demonizing Uhuru - now the fox is playing new card. Unless they reach an agreement (maybe exchange some billions) - I don't see Ruto winning. Ruto is Kalenjin alien - always remember that - can very easily be made an enemy.

I know it painful to countenance but it just plain reality.

[Nefertiti]

Do the same in Luhya, Kamba - AS THINGS STAND TODAY - not conjecture. If Ruto is quietly talking to Weta or Ojaamong - we will only know when it happens - otherwise Weta is OKA and Oparanya is ODM - all publicly working on NARC 2. Mvurya or Kingi stand is unknown.

Gema it downhill for Ruto unless he rein his lethal renegades.

Only in Gusii/Nyamira and Kajiado do I see Ruto underperforming - I see biggest jump in Turkana - and improvements elsewhere - from coast bla bla.
Stick to facts like I do.
I gave Ruto 20 percent less than Uhuru in Gusii/Nyamira.

And I am yet to figure out GEMA percentage to Ruto.

I am working on it - I will release Final Rough Moas by 30th August.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit you can assign Ruto-Obado 2% Luo. Khalwale, Muthama are nobodies - they will not sway Luhya or Kamba at all.

[RV Pundit]

I dont just do the same - you can come up with your own MOASS.I know what I am doing

Do the same in Luhya, Kamba - AS THINGS STAND TODAY - not conjecture. If Ruto is quietly talking to Weta or Ojaamong - we will only know when it happens - otherwise Weta is OKA and Oparanya is ODM - all publicly working on NARC 2. Mvurya or Kingi stand is unknown.

Gema it downhill for Ruto unless he rein his lethal renegades.

[RV Pundit]

These things do not change anything - this why you should get an excel and play with figures. Those granular changes are not significant.

Nationally 1 percent out of 16M votes - is 160,000 votes. That is a county. 10 percent is 1.6M. Sio Mchezo to move 1 or 2 percent nationally.

Therefore even if you get 10 percent more of a tribe - it's impact may not be even 0.5 percent nationally.

Pundit you can assign Ruto-Obado 2% Luo.

[Nefertiti]

We will see in those 3 months. First effect you see of Tangatanga problems is dither to leave Jubilee or join UDA. Meru-Embu expect Muturi party to run the show.

Raila has deftly avoid ODM vs UDA - just as Ruto avoids Uhuru confrontation. There will be no ODM candidates anywhere in Gema - that will Muturi & Jubilee turf - akin to ODM in Kamba. But PORK it only Raila vs Ruto - so Raila just smile and watch the mayhem from far.

In the end people will show up and vote for their local guys and PORK. This is the leverage Kurias have - they can easily demonize Ruto just like Raila was done. It always much easier to fight Uhuru or Raila as underdog - but dealing with local boys is very different animal. If they switch to Kikuyu proverbs on Kameme they will finish Ruto.

As you can tell this makes me very happy.

Ruto has never wanted to use the numbers.
This art of war. You choose your battles wisely.
Ruto has told Mps to vote wherever they want.
He is not interested in fighting Uhuru.
The reality Ruto has the people.
The people forces leaders to support Ruto.
Update yourself on Kiraitu - he is running very far from Raila and Uhuru.
The same with Muturi
Any Mt kenya leader who has gone to the ground or is at the ground - knows being anti Ruto is one sure way to go home.

Kiunjuri and Kuria are wrong to imagine they can shake Ruto.

Watch them join UDA and pick their wheelbarrow in less than 3 months.

[RV Pundit]

You expect all political players to work for Raila - do all the donkey work - for him - and then Raila becomes PORK - create BBIs and reward
That will end in premium tears.

Ruto knows he has to win his core support; Try to get 45 percent on his on own.

Then do deals and negotiation in April-May next year. Not with every tom dick and harry. Muturi is unproven. He has no base. Kiunjuri is better and so is Moses but for now they can hope for CS position. Mtu kama Gideon Moi will give Raila zero votes.

Only a fool put the cart before the horse.

If Ruto enters April-May with 45 percent - then all he needs is 5 percent to close the deal. That is how to win PORK.

You don't reduce yourself to Luo Leader like Raila; and then you're told; all the tribal kings will back you because Ruto who even has better chance of power has some leprosy?

If Raila was brilliant - he would concentrate on building his own coalition first - try to get coast, luhyas, coast..with third rate.

Then he can come to the table with 40 percent....looking for 10 percent from Kalonzo and MaDVD...and Uhuru.

But sasa coast is going, luhyas went, kambas went, everyone has gone to their tribal cocoon in the hope, all will assemble again

We will see in those 3 months. First effect you see of Tangatanga problems is dither to leave Jubilee or join UDA. Meru-Embu expect Muturi party to run the show.

Raila has deftly avoid ODM vs UDA - just as Ruto avoids Uhuru confrontation. There will be no ODM candidates anywhere in Gema - that will Muturi & Jubilee turf - akin to ODM in Kamba. But PORK it only Raila vs Ruto - so Raila just smile and watch the mayhem from far.

In the end people will show up and vote for their local guys and PORK. This is the leverage Kurias have - they can easily demonize Ruto just like Raila was done. It always much easier to fight Uhuru or Raila as underdog - but dealing with local boys is very different animal. If they switch to Kikuyu proverbs on Kameme they will finish Ruto.

As you can tell this makes me very happy.