Trying to stay afloat from UDA tsunami in Mt Kenya

[RV Pundit]

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Negotiating outside the UDA tent I think is not tenable unless Kiunjuri-Kuria-Martha can prove they have some support. Their best bet is to join UDA - and negotiate inside.

For now, Ruto will ignore their tantrums and continue selling UDA directly in Mt Kenya. They can also sell their parties - and see how far they go. Come April-May - that is when people will sit down on the table - and do deals.

Mt Kenya leaders want to see Ruto directly - not through 'brokers'. The brokers have blocked Uhuru.Mt Kenya hustlers similarly do not want long stories about political deals.

Of the three - Moses Kuria has some bite - Kiunjuri TSP has completely failed to start - Martha damaged herself a long time ago.

My advice for them - attack Uhuru day in day out - seize the anger of people - without fear or favour like Ndidi Nyoro/Gachagua/Kuria - then you'll get popular support - to be able to negotiate with Ruto. This is what killed Mwangi Kiunjuri -  too cowardly to attack Uhuru.

Otherwise why would Ruto negotiate 50 percent with an empty suit - he will simply negotiate 5 percent for each of the many GEMA leaders.

[Gikomba_Hawker]

What happens if the tsunami turns out to be one of those soft Kenyan breezes that come and go and require not even a sweater? Politics is a strange game.

Negotiating outside the UDA tent I think is not tenable unless Kiunjuri-Kuria-Martha can prove they have some support. Their best bet is to join UDA - and negotiate inside.

For now, Ruto will ignore their tantrums and continue selling UDA directly in Mt Kenya. They can also sell their parties - and see how far they go. Come April-May - that is when people will sit down on the table - and do deals.

Mt Kenya leaders want to see Ruto directly - not through 'brokers'. The brokers have blocked Uhuru.Mt Kenya hustlers similarly do not want long stories about political deals.

Of the three - Moses Kuria has some bite - Kiunjuri TSP has completely failed to start - Martha damaged herself a long time ago.

My advice for them - attack Uhuru day in day out - seize the anger of people - without fear or favour like Ndidi Nyoro/Gachagua/Kuria - then you'll get popular support - to be able to negotiate with Ruto. This is what killed Mwangi Kiunjuri -  too cowardly to attack Uhuru.

Otherwise why would Ruto negotiate 50 percent with an empty suit - he will simply negotiate 5 percent for each of the many GEMA leaders.

[vooke]

If they are naturally selecting themselves out of the DPORK race then Ruto should be smiling as he has a smaller pool to choose from, fewer negroes to disappoint, but I doubt he is all smiles.

[RV Pundit]

Ruto has Mt kenya people support; direct; this not like 2012 when Uhuru needed Ruto to sell in Kalenin;Ruto can pick anybody from the streets as long as he is mt kenya and say he is hustler like wanjiku of kiambaa - and wins. The only condition Ruto must pick a kikuyu.

Therefore Ruto who is already inside Mt kenya tent will continue to grow UDA. For Kiunjuri-Musa - their best bet is to enter UDA tent and piss from inside. Pissing outside alone while everyone is inside is playing offside. Whatever goal you score.

What damage can they cause that Uhuru and Kieleweke havent caused? For Moses - it easy to call him a Uhuru spy who was just in Hustler Nation as double agent - he is kaput - Ruto has majority and if they all synced and call Moses Kuria - Uhuru spy - mambo kwisha.

For Kiunjuri - Munya is killing the last bit of him by doing better in agriculture.

Bottomline - Alice Wahome - looking good.

You cannot use old template in new dynamics; My advice; fold up; join UDA; become team players with rest of GEMA; and negotiate as a team; Ruto is of course going to give Mt kenya DPORK and 50 percent.

Forming a party is afternoon thing, quiting the same - signing as party - give  no assurance - all this is game of goodwill and trust - Ruto can jump any agreement as PORK like Uhuru has done - there is nothing you can do to him - because ODM and likes will be waiting in the wings.

Kalonzo has signed how many agreement with Raila - and all have been thrown out - and now he is being told to sign yet another - and somehow Uhuru will make sure it is honoured - when Raila become PORK - that  most nonsensical thing.

Agreement will be honoured as long as youre useful - and that usefulness ends at election date - unless someone thing of re-election

If they are naturally selecting themselves out of the DPORK race then Ruto should be smiling as he has a smaller pool to choose from, fewer negroes to disappoint, but I doubt he is all smiles.

[Nefertiti]

  i just need to point to the razor-thin UDA vs Jubilee margins - 500 votes - despite Kuria stepping his boy down. Kuria the man is more popular than UDA - his boy managed 60% in Juja. What you don't want those guys doing is openly taking on Ruto - calling him foreigner  - utajua Kenya ni tribal. Manyora prediction that UDA will be Kalenjin party is looking very wise about now.

First accept Ruto & UDA are not that popular. They are splitting votes with dynasty despite desperate folks committing mass suicides. Now if you split from Kuria the progaganda mouthpiece - dude spits anti-Kenyatta poison. If he turn the venom to Ruto and remind people about genocide you are dead. That gives him very big leverage.

What is likely to happen now - they do Limuru and draft irreducible minimums. Declare all foreigners are equal  and will be judged by their offers. Now recall these are RUTO CAMP manenos - hawajaanzana na Muturi, Uhuru na Baba.

Ruto has Mt kenya people support; direct; this not like 2012 when Uhuru needed Ruto to sell in Kalenin;Ruto can pick anybody from the streets as long as he is mt kenya and say he is hustler like wanjiku of kiambaa - and wins. The only condition Ruto must pick a kikuyu.

Therefore Ruto who is already inside Mt kenya tent will continue to grow UDA. For Kiunjuri-Musa - their best bet is to enter UDA tent and piss from inside. Pissing outside alone while everyone is inside is playing offside. Whatever goal you score.

What damage can they cause that Uhuru and Kieleweke havent caused? For Moses - it easy to call him a Uhuru spy who was just in Hustler Nation as double agent - he is kaput - Ruto has majority and if they all synced and call Moses Kuria - Uhuru spy - mambo kwisha.

For Kiunjuri - Munya is killing the last bit of him by doing better in agriculture.

Bottomline - Alice Wahome - looking good.

You cannot use old template in new dynamics; My advice; fold up; join UDA; become team players with rest of GEMA; and negotiate as a team; Ruto is of course going to give Mt kenya DPORK and 50 percent.

Forming a party is afternoon thing, quiting the same - signing as party - give  no assurance - all this is game of goodwill and trust - Ruto can jump any agreement as PORK like Uhuru has done - there is nothing you can do to him - because ODM and likes will be waiting in the wings.

Kalonzo has signed how many agreement with Raila - and all have been thrown out - and now he is being told to sign yet another - and somehow Uhuru will make sure it is honoured - when Raila become PORK - that  most nonsensical thing.

Agreement will be honoured as long as youre useful - and that usefulness ends at election date - unless someone thing of re-election

[RV Pundit]

Kuria will be joining a legion of the losers in Kieleweke who are now diving right in. In fact they are many hoping he does that so he can be replaced. Kangata for example he shouting so much - and so is the recent wamuchomba - they are elbowing others as they shout Ruto tosha.

The thing is Ruto support is DIRECT. Kabogo has tried - that line - and he was told to go jump into river tana. Kiunjuri has tried to sell TSP - 2yrs late - NO TAKERS.

If Uhuru cannot beat Ruto in Mt Kenya - how can Kuria do it.

Kuria - can be finished by simple propaganda that Murathe has said he is a spy. He will just be associated with Raila and he is done.

Kiunjuri - Munya is finishing him. You cannot just sell tribalism. You also need to perform. Now Kiunjuri did not perform in agriculture - compared to Munya now.

So again - Kuria/Kiunjuri can only appeal to Kieleweke - not UDA guys.Ruto now has like 45 out of 60 mps of Mt kenya. If one leave - the rest will gang up against him.

I would advice Kuria to play for long term - his party has some traction -  do not fight UDA or Ruto now - you will lose - for Kiunjuri - fold that TSP - tissue paper and flush down - and join UDA/Ruto. TSP has failed to get any traction. It's not Ruto's fault. It's Kiunjuri cowardice.

i just need to point to the razor-thin UDA vs Jubilee margins - 500 votes - despite Kuria stepping his boy down. Kuria the man is more popular than UDA - his boy managed 60% in Juja. What you don't want those guys doing is openly taking on Ruto - calling him foreigner  - utajua Kenya ni tribal. Manyora prediction that UDA will be Kalenjin party is looking very wise about now.

[Nefertiti]

Ohoo boy, I wish there was by-election in Kirinyaga or somewhere right now, and see how the cookie crumble. Moses Kuria lethal tongue killed Uhuru-Jubilee - NOT Ruto tongue - and as you can see the entire hustler clan can BARELY take on Jubilee.

You don't want 3-horse race in Central by-election - Ruto could easily emerge as 3rd mule like Matungu or Kisii. I warned you the danger of selling new party while masquerading as a local... and the high potency of the trojan horse.

[RV Pundit]

Is it the tongue or the message. It is the message. Kuria is not even eloguent in any language - at least Kiunjuri is good in Kikuyu. You can have lethal tongue but if you sell Raila - in mt kenya - then you're done. The thing is UDA and Ruto has not stopped Kuria or TSP from selling their party.

Let them prove their worth. Kuria made a mistake to back UDA in Kiambaa - and is just woken up to the reality that UDA will roll-over Mt Kenya.

Let me tell in 2007 - Ruto was for Kalonzo - Kalenjin were for Kalonzo - but at some point Kalonzo lost Kalenjin because he was not attacking Kibaki and expressing kalenjin anger - Kalonzo on April of 2007 - led in the opinion poll. He had 40 percent. Kibaki followed with 30 percent. Raila could not even manage 15 percent. I remember I was home in that April - and people just had no time for Raila - kalenjin never had time for Odinga and Luos brand of politics - Kalonzo was their kind of sober leader - so it was no brainer...by Oct/Nov - it was completely opposite.

The more Kalenjin got angier; the more they wanted kibaki/mt kenya anti-dote; someone as bitter as them; they went for Raila'; someone who was also as angry as them

By time Ruto and Kalonzo realized they had lost people it was too late. Kalonzo to this day doesn't understand what hell happened in those 4 months

Ruto quickly realized this; and run to the front; dropped Kalonzo; and bidded his time to go at Raila in the future.

GEMA are very angry with their leadership; you need to seize that anger; Infact the quickest way to become leader in Mt kenya now is to call Uhuru names. That will elevate you. You will be speaking the language people want to hear.

Selling Uhuru or Raila is 100 percent guaranteed to send you home. Abusing Uhuru and her mother is 100 percent straight ticket to next leadership

Kiunjuri problem are bigger - because unlike Kuria who is expressing the people anger - he is a coward - promising Uhuru a war if he attack him next time there is no next time; You need to attack Uhuru without any provocation if that is what people want.

Ohoo boy, I wish there was by-election in Kirinyaga or somewhere right now, and see how the cookie crumble. Moses Kuria lethal tongue killed Uhuru-Jubilee - NOT Ruto tongue - and as you can see the entire hustler clan can BARELY take on Jubilee.

You don't want 3-horse race in Central by-election - Ruto could easily emerge as 3rd mule like Matungu or Kisii. I warned you the danger of selling new party while masquerading as a local... and the high potency of the trojan horse.

[Nefertiti]

Moses Kuria has already done all those things - insult Uhuru, Mama Ngina, dynasty, tap into public anger of covid or jobs. Fairly well. NOW he is playing new card Ruto didn't see coming. He is saying, dude, this is my base - yours is RV and pastoralists.

Re-read that part - I had to read twice to be sure they were attacking UDA and not ODM. Words like "foreign parties" or "no party can claim to be national." "Limuru 3" or "irreducible minimums". "Community interest" These are very DANGEROUS words being spewed against a new party with 1 MP, 1MCA lead by a Kakenjin.

Pundit you should be afraid. Which is what I read in this thread - staying ahead of the ball - so full of "advice" for Kuria and Kiunjuri. They have considered all those things and chosen to fight UDA.

[RV Pundit]

This not about me. This about Ruto - the best propagadist in sub-sahara africa. I mean well for both of them. TSP fold up and join UDA. Kuria play for the long term.

You cannot destroy Ruto with all that - people have pulled Kiambaa videos; played Moi videos; they have done all that Kalenjin bla bla.Mutahi Ngunyi has turned otherwise intelligent kids into pitiable mess as they produce video on Ruto every week without any traction. He even burnt his Runda home on the eve of Kiambaa

It did not work for kieleweke; what makes you think it will work for Kuria.

Kuria best bet - play on the fringes and harvest from UDA nomination - get 2 or 3 CS from Ruto - and play for the future. It is not possible to get DPORK - coming from Gatundu South and as Kikuyu - just BAD OPTICS.

Some of you political neophytes think it easy for PEOPLE TO CHANGE their mind. My friend it not easy for Ruto to achieve what he has done in Mt kenya. Its like you see someone and his wife fighting -and getting nasty and all bloody - but tomorrow they are together

It NOT easy to decouple Ruto from Mt Kenya. Ask Uhuru kenyatta . What is this new novel propaganda that you will UNLEASH now That other side cannot counter. Unless youre dealing with Raila - but Ruto the BEST PROPAGANDIST - utalia sana,

Moses Kuria has already done all those things - insult Uhuru, Mama Ngina, dynasty, tap into public anger of covid or jobs. Fairly well. NOW he is playing new card Ruto didn't see coming. He is saying, dude, this is my base - yours is RV and pastoralists.

Re-read that part - I had to read twice to be sure they were attacking UDA and not ODM. Words like "foreign parties" or "no party can claim to be national." "Limuru 3" or "irreducible minimums". "Community interest" These are very DANGEROUS words being spewed against a new party with 1 MP, 1MCA lead by a Kakenjin.

Pundit you should be afraid. Which is what I read in this thread - staying ahead of the ball - so full of "advice" for Kuria and Kiunjuri. They have considered all those things and chosen to fight UDA.

[yulemsee]

Ruto is of course going to give Mt kenya DPORK and 50 percent.

That is actually what they are trying to fight for, if Ruto picks anyone e.g Bonoko for D.P, rest assured there will be no 50%. Ruto would want to keep his options open, esp. with Gema secured, 10% to Duale, maybe 15% to someone in Western / Coast ...... Kuria and TSP fellow are trying to fight for a big % but I doubt they will be successfull, their negotiation tactics are wanting. You don't invite the camel inside the tent before negotiation. Thats the blunder they did.

[RV Pundit]

Yes that 50 percent will depend on Ruto projection (definitely opinion polling is going on under radar). If the guys coming for the deal - are not bringing 100 percent of GEMA - but maybe 60 percent - then that 50 percent will drop to 35 percent - and Ruto will try to get Kalonzo or MaDVD to fill the void.

So the way things are going; it will be Mt kenya 35 percent; Former URP including Duale; 35 percent; then 30 percent is what is on offer for Kalonzo (I think Muthama is working on him) - otherwise I suspect Weta has probably signed his 10 percent.

The position to be shared of course DPORK, Speakers of both parliament(2), Majority Leaders of Senate/NA, 22 cabinet seats; maybe 40 PSes, 200 public sector corporations and boards - total could be 1000 plus jobs, 70 ambassadors and that pretty much it.

The problem with Kalonzo is the demand for DPORK as a minimum - this what got him out of Jubilee in 2013 - and this is what Raila normally offers him.

Duale with Ruto in statehouse - will resign as Mp - and go for cabinet. He is not going to be arguing with Babu Owino. He knows under Ruto he will literally pick any ministry and would be a sacred cow.

That is actually what they are trying to fight for, if Ruto picks anyone e.g Bonoko for D.P, rest assured there will be no 50%. Ruto would want to keep his options open, esp. with Gema secured, 10% to Duale, maybe 15% to someone in Western / Coast ...... Kuria and TSP fellow are trying to fight for a big % but I doubt they will be successfull, their negotiation tactics are wanting. You don't invite the camel inside the tent before negotiation. Thats the blunder they did.

[Nefertiti]

Ruto needs all the help he can get - and scuttling his flock and trouble in his few months old party is really bad. Instead of the Jubilee remnants joining - it now wait-n-see at best.

Trojan is lethal... UDA is a new party - 1MP - underrate Kuria and Kiunjuri at your peril. They will play under-dog which Ruto does with Uhuru.

Meantime Raila and his CM Uhuru are holding night meetings to cobble NARC 2. Kalonzo seem on verge of signing up.

This not about me. This about Ruto - the best propagadist in sub-sahara africa. I mean well for both of them. TSP fold up and join UDA. Kuria play for the long term.

You cannot destroy Ruto with all that - people have pulled Kiambaa videos; played Moi videos; they have done all that Kalenjin bla bla.Mutahi Ngunyi has turned otherwise intelligent kids into pitiable mess as they produce video on Ruto every week without any traction. He even burnt his Runda home on the eve of Kiambaa

It did not work for kieleweke; what makes you think it will work for Kuria.

Kuria best bet - play on the fringes and harvest from UDA nomination - get 2 or 3 CS from Ruto - and play for the future. It is not possible to get DPORK - coming from Gatundu South and as Kikuyu - just BAD OPTICS.

Some of you political neophytes think it easy for PEOPLE TO CHANGE their mind. My friend it not easy for Ruto to achieve what he has done in Mt kenya. Its like you see someone and his wife fighting -and getting nasty and all bloody - but tomorrow they are together

It NOT easy to decouple Ruto from Mt Kenya. Ask Uhuru kenyatta . What is this new novel propaganda that you will UNLEASH now That other side cannot counter. Unless youre dealing with Raila - but Ruto the BEST PROPAGANDIST - utalia sana,

[Nefertiti]

Of course this is very great for us Raila fans. The more headaches Ruto has the better. I bet Mdvd sees less hope of being Ruto DPORK now.

[RV Pundit]

We shall see. This is like Muturi/Kiraitu Mt Kenya east bla de bla. Or like Munya-Kabogo. The ground is very hostile for anybody who wants to divide the hustle nation.

Ruto is in a good place - if you check my MOAS thread - he needs 60 percent of GEMA MOAS to be at 48 percent - and someone like Kingi or Weta - bringing 2 percent can close the deal.

Ruto even with 40 percent of Mt Kenya - just need a Kalonzo to win.

As for Raila - he is starting around 25-30 percent - and he needs NASA crew to go back to 45 percent - and then try to get Uhuru to bring in 5 percent.

But as we speak NASA already lost 2-3 percent to Ruto - so they are starting combined at 42-43 percent - they need to unite - all of them plus new ones like Kingis - before they can ask Uhuru to bring in 1/3 of Mt kenya - and it goes to wire:)

If they do not unite -all of them - they do not need to run for PORK; IEBC should give certificate to the WSR.

Ruto needs all the help he can get - and scuttling his flock and trouble in his few months old party is really bad. Instead of the Jubilee remnants joining - it now wait-n-see at best.

Trojan is lethal... UDA is a new party - 1MP - underrate Kuria and Kiunjuri at your peril. They will play under-dog which Ruto does with Uhuru.

Meantime Raila and his CM Uhuru are holding night meetings to cobble NARC 2. Kalonzo seem on verge of signing up.

[Nefertiti]

NOWAY, come here. This concerns your favorite party and candidate. I see the Kuria, Kiunjuri shenanigans as a big threat to Ruto - basically they want UDA to bug off and leave Mt Kenya to them. It makes me very happy.

Are they bluffing? Can Ruto afford to shrug them off? Or take them on.

[hk]

In mt.kenya there's a sizable citizenry that's anti- raila but also there are voters who are never-ruto especially the 40 and above group. In kiambaa according to "insiders" internal polling jubilee candidate was 80% to 20% behind and pulled almost even after jubilee attacked UDA directly. This is what maybe( I am guessing) that has emboldened Martha,kuria and kiunjuri to form the loose coalition.

[RV Pundit]

So right now - what percentage would you say would vote for Ruto in Mt kenya.

While I was in Nairobi - from Kikuyus - I could tell Ruto folks were young and mostly the unwashed - the poor - who had bought hustler versus elite - for them it's a class war.

The older kikuyu generation were 50-50 - on Ruto - but also have issue with Raila. These are people who'd vote for another candidate apart from R or R - either maDVD or Kalonzo if Uhuru was to sell or a credible candidate of their own.

The meru-embus I found to be most pro-Ruto - from old to new ones - they do not have the PEV bitterness like most Kikuyus - and feel esp Merus that Uhuru has not been as good as Kibaki was to them - and seem Ruto will score almost like Uhuru did.

Another thing I could notice - most of women were pro-Ruto than most men. I guess they like church thing.

In mt.kenya there's a sizable citizenry that's anti- raila but also there are voters who are never-ruto especially the 40 and above group. In kiambaa according to "insiders" internal polling jubilee candidate was 80% to 20% behind and pulled almost even after jubilee attacked UDA directly. This is what maybe( I am guessing) that has emboldened Martha,kuria and kiunjuri to form the loose coalition.

[vooke]

I also presented a condolence message from H.E. @WilliamsRuto , expressing his solidarity with the bereaved family.

As a nation, we're repulsed by the heinous act that led to this tragedy, and demand that police officers treat their fellow citizens humanely and with dignity. pic.twitter.com/Vb39CZopT7

— Hon. Justin Muturi, EGH (@HonJBMuturi) August 13, 2021

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[GeeMail]

Kenyans must be very naive or the propaganda machine is overthinking. The claim that Raila is unacceptable in Mt Kenya is hollow. What's the reason behind it? Mere name Odinga with historical baggage current generation does not identify with. Uhuru fed them that baggage in first term with Ruto in Jubilee. If there is a reason Raila should not be accepted in Mt Kenya then it should worry Ruto even more.

Jubilee pushed propaganda that "Raila is a violent man." Now look who is talking? One year is a long time and propaganda wears out. I cannot tell how this will go but it can turn very nasty against the propagandists.