The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.

[RV Pundit]

Couple of presidential opinion polls

In Machakos County, Kalonzo's lost pact with Raila seems to have been a blessing to Ruto as he has gained a strong 10% popularity while Raila drops a significant 32%. #MizaniAfricaPolls pic.twitter.com/lnHdDHNmu3

— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) May 20, 2022

[RV Pundit]

The Presidential Running Mate nomination has already caused a paradigm shift with the respondents in Kirinyaga. Ruto's popularity has had a slight drop of 4.9%. Raila on the other hand has gained more traction and an increase of 10.2%. #MizaniAfricaPolls pic.twitter.com/PHbeNB4TOB

— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) May 20, 2022

[RV Pundit]

Tharaka Nithi - no effect on Kindiki - it was executed quickly - one day Kindiki is up and next day over - nope even heard of it - didnt fester - great move by Ruto.

There is a slight shift of preference in Tharaka-Nithi following the nomination of the running mates, especially on Ruto's side where the Tharaka-Nithi king pin, Kithure Kindiki  lost to Rigathi Gachagua. Ruto drops 3.3% of popularity as Raila gains  0.4% #MizaniAfricaPolls pic.twitter.com/U7bLNm4kEP

— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) May 20, 2022

[RV Pundit]

Mini update- West pokot - I hear Azimio has gone off - even Prof Lonyapouo and Pkosing cannot dare say the name.Another Meru where Kiraitu get tongue-tied everytime he thinks Azimio. Tiaty Kamket still strong in Azimo.

Ruto tangatanga ground game is bearing fruits....

[RV Pundit]

Nakuru tribal maths?
The latest statistics from IEBC indicate that 58 per cent of Nakuru voters are from the populous Kikuyu community, 24 per cent are Kalenjin and 18 per cent are from minority communities.

That looks bogus...believe MOAS is more accurate

[RV Pundit]

Radio Africa May poll - Ruto has slight edge - Kalonzo rises to 4 percent - but will look likely to drop out.
They didnt release their regional breakdown last time - hope they do this time

[RV Pundit]

Laikipia is UDA stronghold

UDA's  Laikipia's former Governor Joshua Irungu is the most popular gubernatorial candidate commanding a significant lead with 57.4%. Incumbent Ndiritu Muriithi comes second place with 36.1%. #MizaniAfricaPolls pic.twitter.com/VqWfASTfRB

— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) May 25, 2022

[RV Pundit]

Kajiado not looking good

At the gubernatorial level, ODM's  incumbent Joseph Ole Lenku commands the highest ranking with 36.7%. #MizaniAfricaPolls pic.twitter.com/2WCF2kinx3

— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) May 25, 2022

[RV Pundit]

Quick Update here is how I think numbers look like now - with Kalonzo expected to join Azimio

1. Nairobi, Raila 55%,  Ruto 45%.
2. Nakuru, Raila 30%,   Ruto 70%
3. Mombasa, Raila 60%, Ruto 40%
4. Kisii, Raila 65%,  Ruto 35%
5. Nyamira, Raila 60,   Ruto 40%
6. Kakamega, Raila 55, Ruto 45%.
7. Bungoma, Raila 35%, Ruto 65%
8.Vihiga, Raila 50%,  Ruto 50%
9.Busia, Raila 70,%  Ruto 30%
10.Transzoia, Raila 35%,  Ruto 65%
11. Kiambu,  Raila 30%,  Ruto 70%
12. Murang'a, Raila 20%, Ruto 80%
13. Kirinyaga, Raila 35%  Ruto 65%
14. Nyeri,  Raila 20%,  Ruto 80%
15. Nyandarua, Raila 25%, Ruto 75%
16. Meru,  Raila 30%,  Ruto 70%
17. Embu, Raila 15%, Ruto 85%
18. Tharakanithi, Raila 15%, Ruto 80%
19. Laikipia, Raila 30%,  Ruto 70%
20. Kajiado, Raila 50%, Ruto 50 %
21.Narok,  Raila  40%, Ruto 60%.
22. Samburu, Raila 40%, Ruto 60%
23. Turkana, Raila 45%, Ruto 55%
24. West Pokot, Raila 25%, Ruto 75%.
25. Kilifi,  Raila 55%,  Ruto 45%
26. Taita Taveta,60%, Ruto 40%
27. Tanariver, Raila 50%, Ruto 50%
28. Kwale,  Raila 50%, Ruto 50 %
29. Lamu, Raila 50%, Ruto 50%
30. Machakoes, Raila 40%, Ruto 60%
31. Kitui,  Raila 70%,  Ruto 30%
32. Makueni, Raila 70%,  Ruto 30%.
33. Isiolo, Raila 50%,  Ruto 50%
34. Mandera,  Raila 60 %, Ruto 40%
35. Wajir,  Raila 60%,  Ruto, 40%
36. Baringo, Raila 15%, Ruto 85%
37. Elgeiyo Marakwet Raila 5%, Ruto 95%
38. Nandi, Raila 10%,  Ruto  90%
39. Kericho, Raila 5%  Ruto 95%
40. Bomet, Raila 5%  Ruto  95%
41. Siaya  Raila 95%,  Ruto 5%
42. Kisumu, Raila 95%, Ruto 5%
43. Homabay, Raila 95%, Ruto 5%
44. Migori,  Raila 75%, Ruto 25%
45. Uasin Gishu, Raila 20 %, Ruto 80%
46. Marsabit, Raila 60%, Ruto 40%
47. Garissa,  Raila 60%, Ruto 40%

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Ruto wins big everytime!

[RV Pundit]

Kulia watalia. Soon it will dawn on them that Mlevi and Kibicho are shallow state.
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Ruto wins big everytime!

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Davis Chirchir and Mulot boys are mbaaad news. Chebukati is Ruto mole at IEBC!

[RV Pundit]

With kalonzo bid collapsing the final final moass should now be ready to go in few days time and we wait for the 10th.

[RV Pundit]

Nyeri UDA to sweep except Kieni - that is close

Duncan Mathenge is the most popular Nyeri Town MP aspirant leading with 45.4%. #MizaniAfricaPolls pic.twitter.com/0ryED3QOBp

— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) June 3, 2022

[RV Pundit]

Narok same story - Need to see Narok East and North.

UDA's Former C.A.S Patrick Ole Ntutu commands the highest gubernatorial ranking with 59.5% making him the most popular candidate in Narok County. ODM's Moitalel Ole Kenta comes at second place with 37.8%. #MizaniAfricaPolls pic.twitter.com/GHl2G5n9FN

— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) June 2, 2022

[RV Pundit]

Wajir
Women rep is Azimio competition
Senate UDA leads
Gov is competition btw Jubilee and UDA

Abass Sheikh commands the highest senatorial ranking with 31.7%. #MizaniAfricaPolls pic.twitter.com/0xHv2rFCUq

— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) May 30, 2022

/photo/1

Nairobi South Hospital C.EO Dr. Mohammed Adam is the most popular gubernatorial candidate leading with 34.6%. #MizaniAfricaPolls pic.twitter.com/0N3QPKSNyZ

— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) May 30, 2022

[Tactician]

Interesting. Might be useful to crosscheck with ethnic bases.

Ruto presently has majority in only two bases. 99% kalenjin and 65-70% kikuyu.

Raila has majority in luo, luhya, kamba, mijikenda/taita  and somali.

Will be a turnout battle, which is where momentum counts. While ruto has had momentum over last two years, it is faltering towards finish line, just as raila is gaining.

How does ruto regain momentum?

Quick Update here is how I think numbers look like now - with Kalonzo expected to join Azimio

1. Nairobi, Raila 55%,  Ruto 45%.
2. Nakuru, Raila 30%,   Ruto 70%
3. Mombasa, Raila 60%, Ruto 40%
4. Kisii, Raila 65%,  Ruto 35%
5. Nyamira, Raila 60,   Ruto 40%
6. Kakamega, Raila 55, Ruto 45%.
7. Bungoma, Raila 35%, Ruto 65%
8.Vihiga, Raila 50%,  Ruto 50%
9.Busia, Raila 70,%  Ruto 30%
10.Transzoia, Raila 35%,  Ruto 65%
11. Kiambu,  Raila 30%,  Ruto 70%
12. Murang'a, Raila 20%, Ruto 80%
13. Kirinyaga, Raila 35%  Ruto 65%
14. Nyeri,  Raila 20%,  Ruto 80%
15. Nyandarua, Raila 25%, Ruto 75%
16. Meru,  Raila 30%,  Ruto 70%
17. Embu, Raila 15%, Ruto 85%
18. Tharakanithi, Raila 15%, Ruto 80%
19. Laikipia, Raila 30%,  Ruto 70%
20. Kajiado, Raila 50%, Ruto 50 %
21.Narok,  Raila  40%, Ruto 60%.
22. Samburu, Raila 40%, Ruto 60%
23. Turkana, Raila 45%, Ruto 55%
24. West Pokot, Raila 25%, Ruto 75%.
25. Kilifi,  Raila 55%,  Ruto 45%
26. Taita Taveta,60%, Ruto 40%
27. Tanariver, Raila 50%, Ruto 50%
28. Kwale,  Raila 50%, Ruto 50 %
29. Lamu, Raila 50%, Ruto 50%
30. Machakoes, Raila 40%, Ruto 60%
31. Kitui,  Raila 70%,  Ruto 30%
32. Makueni, Raila 70%,  Ruto 30%.
33. Isiolo, Raila 50%,  Ruto 50%
34. Mandera,  Raila 60 %, Ruto 40%
35. Wajir,  Raila 60%,  Ruto, 40%
36. Baringo, Raila 15%, Ruto 85%
37. Elgeiyo Marakwet Raila 5%, Ruto 95%
38. Nandi, Raila 10%,  Ruto  90%
39. Kericho, Raila 5%  Ruto 95%
40. Bomet, Raila 5%  Ruto  95%
41. Siaya  Raila 95%,  Ruto 5%
42. Kisumu, Raila 95%, Ruto 5%
43. Homabay, Raila 95%, Ruto 5%
44. Migori,  Raila 75%, Ruto 25%
45. Uasin Gishu, Raila 20 %, Ruto 80%
46. Marsabit, Raila 60%, Ruto 40%
47. Garissa,  Raila 60%, Ruto 40%

[RV Pundit]

I do check ethnic bases to the granular level.
You're doing half-arsed Pajero type of job.
This is how UhuRuto won with "two" tribes only.
Tribes are not equal.
GEMA alone can handle three big tribes..size of Kamba/Luo/Luhya(low voter turnout/registration).
There is really nothing that has changed momentum wise - because Kalonzo was in Azimio - then went back.
The real change is in Mijikenda where Kingi made a big move - and Ruto seem to be capture the coast with bold Land and Port issues.
Elsewhere is pretty settled. I dont think Mutua will do much to help in Ukambani...even in Machakos they dont see eye to eye with UDA crew.
As for Luhya - I do think Ruto has an edge because he strike the heart of it - Bukusu & Maragoli - and Raila has the edges - Busia, lower Vihiga and Kakamega - areas around his home-siaya. Ruto has Luhyas in north around his home. It's almost Luhya have to decide where is nearer...Bondo or Sugoi.
Bukusu alone are 40% of Luhyas - and now they are going hard on Ruto.

Anyway Raila will remain hopeless until he get 50 % of GEMA - then he will go 50:50 with Ruto.

Interesting. Might be useful to crosscheck with ethnic bases.

Ruto presently has majority in only two bases. 99% kalenjin and 65-70% kikuyu.

Raila has majority in luo, luhya, kamba, mijikenda/taita  and somali.

Will be a turnout battle, which is where momentum counts. While ruto has had momentum over last two years, it is faltering towards finish line, just as raila is gaining.

How does ruto regain momentum?

Quick Update here is how I think numbers look like now - with Kalonzo expected to join Azimio

1. Nairobi, Raila 55%,  Ruto 45%.
2. Nakuru, Raila 30%,   Ruto 70%
3. Mombasa, Raila 60%, Ruto 40%
4. Kisii, Raila 65%,  Ruto 35%
5. Nyamira, Raila 60,   Ruto 40%
6. Kakamega, Raila 55, Ruto 45%.
7. Bungoma, Raila 35%, Ruto 65%
8.Vihiga, Raila 50%,  Ruto 50%
9.Busia, Raila 70,%  Ruto 30%
10.Transzoia, Raila 35%,  Ruto 65%
11. Kiambu,  Raila 30%,  Ruto 70%
12. Murang'a, Raila 20%, Ruto 80%
13. Kirinyaga, Raila 35%  Ruto 65%
14. Nyeri,  Raila 20%,  Ruto 80%
15. Nyandarua, Raila 25%, Ruto 75%
16. Meru,  Raila 30%,  Ruto 70%
17. Embu, Raila 15%, Ruto 85%
18. Tharakanithi, Raila 15%, Ruto 80%
19. Laikipia, Raila 30%,  Ruto 70%
20. Kajiado, Raila 50%, Ruto 50 %
21.Narok,  Raila  40%, Ruto 60%.
22. Samburu, Raila 40%, Ruto 60%
23. Turkana, Raila 45%, Ruto 55%
24. West Pokot, Raila 25%, Ruto 75%.
25. Kilifi,  Raila 55%,  Ruto 45%
26. Taita Taveta,60%, Ruto 40%
27. Tanariver, Raila 50%, Ruto 50%
28. Kwale,  Raila 50%, Ruto 50 %
29. Lamu, Raila 50%, Ruto 50%
30. Machakoes, Raila 40%, Ruto 60%
31. Kitui,  Raila 70%,  Ruto 30%
32. Makueni, Raila 70%,  Ruto 30%.
33. Isiolo, Raila 50%,  Ruto 50%
34. Mandera,  Raila 60 %, Ruto 40%
35. Wajir,  Raila 60%,  Ruto, 40%
36. Baringo, Raila 15%, Ruto 85%
37. Elgeiyo Marakwet Raila 5%, Ruto 95%
38. Nandi, Raila 10%,  Ruto  90%
39. Kericho, Raila 5%  Ruto 95%
40. Bomet, Raila 5%  Ruto  95%
41. Siaya  Raila 95%,  Ruto 5%
42. Kisumu, Raila 95%, Ruto 5%
43. Homabay, Raila 95%, Ruto 5%
44. Migori,  Raila 75%, Ruto 25%
45. Uasin Gishu, Raila 20 %, Ruto 80%
46. Marsabit, Raila 60%, Ruto 40%
47. Garissa,  Raila 60%, Ruto 40%

[Tactician]

Is Ruto really ahead of raila in western/coast? I doubt, but i dunno. We shall soon find out.

The issue is momentum. Who has it? I can tell you that the debate between Karua/Gachagua has tilted the momentum in central kenya, especially among the older folks who are reliable voters. Won't be shocked if raila gets 40% there on eelection day on account of turnout

I do check ethnic bases to the granular level.
You're doing half-arsed Pajero type of job.
This is how UhuRuto won with "two" tribes only.
Tribes are not equal.
GEMA alone can handle three big tribes..size of Kamba/Luo/Luhya(low voter turnout/registration).
There is really nothing that has changed momentum wise - because Kalonzo was in Azimio - then went back.
The real change is in Mijikenda where Kingi made a big move - and Ruto seem to be capture the coast with bold Land and Port issues.
Elsewhere is pretty settled. I dont think Mutua will do much to help in Ukambani...even in Machakos they dont see eye to eye with UDA crew.
As for Luhya - I do think Ruto has an edge because he strike the heart of it - Bukusu & Maragoli - and Raila has the edges - Busia, lower Vihiga and Kakamega - areas around his home-siaya. Ruto has Luhyas in north around his home. It's almost Luhya have to decide where is nearer...Bondo or Sugoi.
Bukusu alone are 40% of Luhyas - and now they are going hard on Ruto.

Anyway Raila will remain hopeless until he get 50 % of GEMA - then he will go 50:50 with Ruto.

Interesting. Might be useful to crosscheck with ethnic bases.

Ruto presently has majority in only two bases. 99% kalenjin and 65-70% kikuyu.

Raila has majority in luo, luhya, kamba, mijikenda/taita  and somali.

Will be a turnout battle, which is where momentum counts. While ruto has had momentum over last two years, it is faltering towards finish line, just as raila is gaining.

How does ruto regain momentum?

Quick Update here is how I think numbers look like now - with Kalonzo expected to join Azimio

1. Nairobi, Raila 55%,  Ruto 45%.
2. Nakuru, Raila 30%,   Ruto 70%
3. Mombasa, Raila 60%, Ruto 40%
4. Kisii, Raila 65%,  Ruto 35%
5. Nyamira, Raila 60,   Ruto 40%
6. Kakamega, Raila 55, Ruto 45%.
7. Bungoma, Raila 35%, Ruto 65%
8.Vihiga, Raila 50%,  Ruto 50%
9.Busia, Raila 70,%  Ruto 30%
10.Transzoia, Raila 35%,  Ruto 65%
11. Kiambu,  Raila 30%,  Ruto 70%
12. Murang'a, Raila 20%, Ruto 80%
13. Kirinyaga, Raila 35%  Ruto 65%
14. Nyeri,  Raila 20%,  Ruto 80%
15. Nyandarua, Raila 25%, Ruto 75%
16. Meru,  Raila 30%,  Ruto 70%
17. Embu, Raila 15%, Ruto 85%
18. Tharakanithi, Raila 15%, Ruto 80%
19. Laikipia, Raila 30%,  Ruto 70%
20. Kajiado, Raila 50%, Ruto 50 %
21.Narok,  Raila  40%, Ruto 60%.
22. Samburu, Raila 40%, Ruto 60%
23. Turkana, Raila 45%, Ruto 55%
24. West Pokot, Raila 25%, Ruto 75%.
25. Kilifi,  Raila 55%,  Ruto 45%
26. Taita Taveta,60%, Ruto 40%
27. Tanariver, Raila 50%, Ruto 50%
28. Kwale,  Raila 50%, Ruto 50 %
29. Lamu, Raila 50%, Ruto 50%
30. Machakoes, Raila 40%, Ruto 60%
31. Kitui,  Raila 70%,  Ruto 30%
32. Makueni, Raila 70%,  Ruto 30%.
33. Isiolo, Raila 50%,  Ruto 50%
34. Mandera,  Raila 60 %, Ruto 40%
35. Wajir,  Raila 60%,  Ruto, 40%
36. Baringo, Raila 15%, Ruto 85%
37. Elgeiyo Marakwet Raila 5%, Ruto 95%
38. Nandi, Raila 10%,  Ruto  90%
39. Kericho, Raila 5%  Ruto 95%
40. Bomet, Raila 5%  Ruto  95%
41. Siaya  Raila 95%,  Ruto 5%
42. Kisumu, Raila 95%, Ruto 5%
43. Homabay, Raila 95%, Ruto 5%
44. Migori,  Raila 75%, Ruto 25%
45. Uasin Gishu, Raila 20 %, Ruto 80%
46. Marsabit, Raila 60%, Ruto 40%
47. Garissa,  Raila 60%, Ruto 40%

[RV Pundit]

It probably going to go the wire in Western & Coast - 50-50; opinion polls generally have Raila slightly ahead in Western; he had big lead (20 percent plus) in Coast; but with PAA exit; I see that lead shrinking.

As for Mt kenya - I think temporary excitement of Martha - is nothing compared to Uhuru withdrawal from the campaigns.

Without Uhuru on the trenches - Martha will not manage - she cannot sustain momentum for more than a week - she cut a lonely figure this week in Kirinyanga.

So again when you're looking at momentum - your want to keep an eye on solid momentum that can be sustained until August.  Not weekly excitements.

Bottom-line: Without Uhuru on the trenches - 30% is impossible in Mt kenya for Raila - heck even 20% is impossible - Martha and Jubilee crew simply dont have the gravitas to win votes. She has a 15yr almost wall of mistrust to surmount has she has been doing her own things. For her to sell herself and then Raila is impossible.

Uhuru still is trusted by small minority who'd give him some benefit of doubt....and pretty much all support Raila has in GEMA is uhuru benefit of doubt account. If he goes silent - then that support will shrink - and I think that is what is happening - as generally Ruto is moving to 80 percent of Mt kenya - at least according to Mizani. Raila had small bump from Martha - but it mostly came from undecided voters - not from Ruto voters. MIzani are doing heavily samples. I wish other pollsters would just focus on few counties with proper sampling...than trying to sample the entire country...and produce unreliable data.

But definitely she help burnish some reform credential in Raila ticket - Raila was increasingly looking like old KANU - and Martha has given him a shine - at least nationally.

Is Ruto really ahead of raila in western/coast? I doubt, but i dunno. We shall soon find out.

The issue is momentum. Who has it? I can tell you that the debate between Karua/Gachagua has tilted the momentum in central kenya, especially among the older folks who are reliable voters. Won't be shocked if raila gets 40% there on eelection day on account of turnout