Nairobi county has got 17 constituencies and 85 wards,in regard to previous voting trends,tribal affiliations,population and political dynamics within the city county,here are the likely outcomes in the constituencies;-
*Kamukunji Constituency*
It hosts the largest number of Somalis in the city county.
In 2013 general elections both CORD and JUBILEE nominated Somali origins as Yusuf Hassan won with 20,507 votes and Uhuru got 5,032 votes.
It comprises the following wards; Pumwani,Eastleigh North & South, Airbase and California.
JUBILEE won 4 out of the 5 wards of Pumwani/ Kariokor, Eastleigh North, Airbase and California while CORD only took Eastleigh South.
Ethnic Support
NASA- 42,983 (39.31%) with Luo -10,069 Luhya- 11,893 and Kamba- 21,021.
JUBILEE - 38,813 (35.50%) Kikuyu - 31,935 Other GEMA - 5,382 Kalenjin - 1,496 Somalia are 24.59% and they are the determinant votes.
*Starehe constituency*
In compose of the wards; Central( CBD), Ngara, Pangani, Ziwani/ Kariokor, Landing mawe and Nairobi South,it includes parts of Muthurwa and Gikomba areas.
In 2013 Uhuru beat Raila by 16,396 votes and JUBILEE won the parliamentary seat with 4 out of the 6 county Assembly seats while CORD took only two Landmawe and Nairobi South formerly in Makadara constituency.
Ethnic Support
NASA - 54,842 (36.05) with Luo - 14,344 Luhya - 16,138, Kamba - 24,360.
JUBILEE - 76,319 (50.17%) Kikuyu - 65,290 Other GEMA - 6,947 Kalenjin - 4,082
Swing votes - 20,969 (13.78)
There is heavy presence of Kikuyu's in Starehe especially in the CBD and Ngara accounting to almost over 60% of the registered voters.
*Makadara constituency*
It compose of the wards of Maringo/ Hamza, Viwandani, Harambee and Makongeni.
This is a cosmopolitan constituency with no dominant community, Raila won the presidential race with 6,846 votes while ODM obtained 3 out of 4 seats.
JUBILEE won Maringo/ Hamza where there is high concentration of Kikuyu support.
Ethnic Support
NASA - 59,548(51.14%) with Luo - 18,892, Luhya - 18,835 and Kamba - 17,309.
JUBILEE - 44,989 (38.63%) with Kikuyu - 38,362, Other GEMA - 3,929, Kalenjin - 2,198
Swing votes - 11,913 ( 10.23%) If NASA solidifies/ combines they will win everything but when they split JUBILEE can win Harambee ward where the Kikuyu's are the largest community.
*Mathare constituency*
It have the following wards; Hospital, Mabatini, Huruma, Ngei, Mlango kubwa and Kiamaiko.
In 2013 Raila win by 7,675 votes but CORD lost the parliamentary race by 346 votes due to the split between a Luhya candidate in UDF and a Luo candidate in Ford- Kenya whom got 26,916 and 5,713 votes respectively.
Ethnic Support
NASA - 63,442 ( 57.79%) with Luo - 18,435, Luhyas - 20,498, Kamba - 24,459.
JUBILEE - 36,475 (33.22%) with Kikuyu's - 32,715, Other GEMA - 2,633, Kalenjin - 1,127
Swing votes 9,857 (8.0%).
Kikuyu is the largest community in Mathare with a population of 32,712 votes,toss-up with a lean win for NASA.(NASA - 45 Toss-up -
.
*Embakasi South*
This constituency holds slums of the larger Embakasi. It compose of the wards; Imara,Kwa Njenga,Kwa Reuben,Pipeline and Kware. CORD won in 4 out of its 5 wards.
Ethnic Support
NASA - 78,217 (58.48%) with Luo - 9,888, Luhya - 18,021 and Kamba - 50,308.
JUBILEE - 30,512 (22.81%) with Kikuyu- 22,442, Other GEMA - 4,910, Kalenjin - 3,160
Swing votes - 25,024 (18.71%)
*Embakasi North*
Comprises of the following wards; Kariobangi North, Dandora area I,II,III & IV.
Comprises of lower middle income estates,In 2013 Uhuru won by 1,354 votes more than Raila,ODM won Dandora Area IV ward only.
CORD splitter support in Kariobangi North ward and JUBILEE won with 7,366 votes which was only 226 votes more than ODM candidate.
JUBILEE controls 3 MCAs seats( Dandora Area I,II & III) while NASA controls two wards of Dandora Area IV and Kariobangi North.
Ethnic Support
NASA - 44,620 ( 45.38%) with Luo - 22,604, Luhya - 12,697 and Kamba - 9,319.
JUBILEE - 43,139 (43.93%) with Kikuyu - 45,206, Other GEMA 2,544, Kalenjin - 389
Swing votes 10,560 (10.74%) this constituency is a toss- up.
*Embakasi Central*
Comprise the wards;Kayole North, Central and South,Komarock and Matopeni/ Spring Valley/ Njiru.
In 2013,Uhuru won 5,635 more than Raila,JUBILEE won 4 out of 5 MCA seats,ODM only won Kayole South.
Ethnic support
NASA - 51,745 (42.56%) with Luo - 20,395, Luhya - 15,150 and Kamba - 16,200.
JUBILEE 57,020 (47%) with Kikuyu - 51,667, Other GEMA - 4,389, Kalenjin - 964
Swing votes - 12,822 (10.55%).Registered NASA supporters are 45.37% while JUBILEE are 44.68%.
*Embakasi East*
Comprise the wards; Lower Savannah,Upeer Savannah,Embakasi,Utawala and Mihango( Utawala side).
Raila won with 11,536 more votes than Uhuru,the ODM MP won with 763 more votes than the TNA candidate.
CORD won in all the four wards while JUBILEE won only in Mihango ward.
Ethnic support
NASA - 58,153 (47.56%) with Luo - 20,401, Luhya - 19,828, Kamba - 17,924
JUBILEE - 12,342 ( 16.54%) with Kikuyu - 12,435, Other GEMA - 2,342 , Kalenjin - 765
Swing votes - 26,544 (35.90%)
*Dagoretti North*
Comprises the wards; Kilimani,Kileleshwa,Kawangware,Kihiro and Gatina.
In 2013 CORD won 4 out of the 5 wards,JUBILEE only won in Kawangware.
Ethnic support
NASA - 70,502 (54%) with Luos - 13,279, Luhya - 46,945 , Kamba - 10,278.
JUBILEE - 36,979 (23.31%) with Kikuyu - 29,836, Other GEMA - 3,760, Kalenjin - 3,383
Swing votes - 23,318 (17.70%)
*Langatta Constituency*
Comprise of wards; Karen,Nairobi West,Mugumo- ini,South C, Nyayo and Highrise.
CORD won the parliamentary and all the civic seats.
Ethnic Support
NASA - 55,312 (49.35%) with Luo - 20,447, Luhya - 20,406, Kamba - 14, 459.
JUBILEE - 35,865 (32%) with Kikuyu - 22,084,Other GEMA - 4,831, Kalenjin - 8,950
Swing votes - 20,900 ( 18.65%)
*Kibra Constituency*
Comprises the wards; Laini saba, Makina, Sarangombe and Woodley/ Kenyatta Golf Course,the first 4 wards are in Kibera slums.
In 2013 ODM won in 3 wards,Wiper 1.
Ethnic Support
NASA - 79,038 ( 71.46%) with Luo - 32,015, Luhya - 32,218, Kamba - 14,805
JUBILEE - 15,561 (14.07%) with Kikuyu - 11,304, Other GEMA - 2,091, Kalenjin - 2,166
Swing votes - 16,007 (14.47%) NASA could win 4 out of the 5 wards.
*Roysambu Constituency*
Comprises wstds of Githurai,Kahawa west,Zimmerman, Roysambu and Kahawa.JUBILEE won all the wards.
Ethnic Support
NASA - 25,616 (19.59%) with Luo - 7,289, Luhya - 9,652, Kamba - 8,675
JUBILEE - 96,883 ( 74.08%) with Kikuyu 84,069, Other GEMA - 10,863, Kalenjin - 1,901
Swing votes - 8,269(6.32%).
*Westlands Constituency*
Comprise of the following wards; Kitusuru,Parklands/ High ridge, Karura, Kangemi and Mountain View.
In 2013 CORD won 4 out of the 5 seats,JUBILEE won only Karura ward.
Ethnic Support
NASA - 70,566 (51.67%) with Luo 10,829, Luhya - 49,125, Kamba - 10,612
JUBILEE - 43,697 (31.37%) with Kikuyu - 36,037, Other GEMA - 4,129, Kalenjin - 3,531
Swing votes - 25,026 (18%).
*Kasarani Constituency*
Comprises of the wards; Clay city, Mwiki, Kasarani, Njiru and Ruai.
In 2013 JUBILEE won the parliamentary and all the member of county Assembly( MCA's) seats.
Ethnic Support
NASA - 31,738 (25%) with Luo - 9,511, Luhya - 8,844, Kamba - 13,383
JUBILEE - 84,102 (65.93%) with Kikuyu - 75,648, Other GEMA - 7,121, Kalenjin, 1,333
Swing votes - 11,722 (9.19%)
*Ruaraka Constituency*
Comprises of the wards of Babadogo, Utalii,Mathare North,Luckysummer and Korogocho wards.
In 2013 CORD won the legislative and all the civic( MCA's) seats ,its very industrialized constituency with entire Babadogo ward surrounded by industries,Luckysummer wards also has a few
Ethnic Support
NASA - 75,955 (70.83%) with Luo - 44,668, Luhya - 18,828, Kamba - 12,459
JUBILEE - 31,642 (17.86%) with Kikuyu - 19,978, Other GEMA - 3,324, Kalenjin -234
Swing votes -22,708 (12%)
*NAIROBI GUBERNATORIAL*
In 2013 Nairobi city county had the following candidates in the ballot
1. Dr.Evans Odhiambo Kidero - 692,490 (ODM/CORD)
2. Ferdinand Waititu - 618,047 ( TNA/ JUBILEE)
3. Jimnabaru - 52,510 ( APK/JUBILEE)
4. Kavemba - 7,445 (Wiper/CORD)
5. Kobia - 5,334 (NARC/JUBILEE)
6. Phillip Kisia - 5,154 ( FPK/ CORD)
7. Mokua - 4,201 FP/CORD)
8. Alice - 3,865 (NVP/JUBILEE)
9. Kihara - 1,754 (Independent/JUBILEE)
10. Muchiri - 1,736 ( KNC/JUBILEE)
*Senate*
Sonko - 814,184
Wanjiru - 526,437
*Women Rep*
Rachael Shebesh - 632,646
Esther Passaris - 291,384
*Scenario 1*
Combine 2013 voting patterns
Kidero - 709,290
Sonko - 683,346
*Scenario 2*
NASA
Luhya - 346,086
Luo - 301,989
Kamba - 294,004
Total - 942,079 (46.33%)
JUBILEE
Kikuyu - 697,603
Meru,Embu( GEMA)- 81,118
Kalenjin - 43,612
Total - 822,333 (40.44%)
Swing votes - 268,666 (13.21%)
