The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.

[RV Pundit]

Wajir

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— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) March 11, 2022

[RV Pundit]

Mandera look like Raila fortunes could improve tremendously - otherwise this has been Ruto stronghold

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— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) March 11, 2022

[RV Pundit]

Marsabit & Isiolo - 50-50 game

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— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) March 11, 2022

[RV Pundit]

Turkana - Raila has an edge - suprising - look like Nanok need to do more

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— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) March 11, 2022

[RV Pundit]

Ukambani - Kalonzo has edge in Kitui, Ruto in Machakos and Raila in Makueni

Lower Eastern Region pic.twitter.com/AQmmAUMfxD

— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) March 11, 2022

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— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) March 11, 2022

[RV Pundit]

Western -
Busia-unlike TIFA - where Raila was scoring 80 percent - Ruto is at 25 percent in Busia
Bungoma - is solid Ruto stronghold
Vihiga - Despite maDVD homeground he is doing badly. I doubt this data - they might have sampled wrongly.
Kakamega - Raila has edge over Ruto
Tranzoia is 50-50

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— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) March 11, 2022

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— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) March 11, 2022

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— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) March 11, 2022

[RV Pundit]

Mt kenya - Raila doing well in Meru,Kiambu and Tharaka.
Ruto sweeping the floor with Kirinyanga, Nyeri, Muranga, Embu

Generally Raila has improved his 2017 figures by 18-20 percent. The silver linning for Raila - Kiambu and Meru county combined are nearly 2million votes - with Kiambu at 1.1m and Meru 0.8M - the rest generally average 0.45m votes each.

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— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) March 11, 2022

[RV Pundit]

Coast. Not look good for Ruto - even in Kwale he loses to Raila.
Ruto is doing badly at Taita Taveta - hard to believe - and Lamu 50-50 as expected

I find these figures implausible...

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— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) March 11, 2022

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— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) March 11, 2022

[RV Pundit]

Nairobi County - within credible range.

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— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) March 11, 2022

[RV Pundit]

With momentous decision of Kalonzo to keep faith with Raila for the third time and pretty the political landscape having settled - It's time to release the Final MOAS  2022. I project Ruto will win with 52-53% against Raila 46-47% - with a gap of a million votes #Ruto #Kalonzo pic.twitter.com/eyAnnQgdRS

— Pundit (@rvpundit) March 12, 2022

[RV Pundit]

Radio Africa..March Poll...dont seem much has changed...but it was eve of Kalonzo move

[RV Pundit]

Radio Africa poll - Ruto number stuck at 57 percent in Central - same with Ruto numbers in RV- everywhere else look good to me.

COOKED ->Support for Raila as the next president jumped from 35.1 per cent in February to 47.4 per cent in March, a jump of 12.3 per cent.

Mixed stew by Radio Africa - that had Raila "miraculously" jumping from 35 to 49

Regions where Raila is ahead of Ruto#RadioAfricaPolls pic.twitter.com/9MG1p89tqV

— TheStarKenya (@TheStarKenya) March 16, 2022

Inevitability. pic.twitter.com/QrZpRs6pPQ

— Prof Makau Mutua (@makaumutua) March 15, 2022

[RV Pundit]

Yet another poor hatchet job by Nation - declares Western - Raila stronghold - based on nothing but hubris
Remove 2m votes from Bungoma, kakamega, Tranzoia and Vihiga - and Raila trails by more than 1.5m votes.
You can add him Gusii/Nyamira where he will get 2/3.

[RV Pundit]

MOAS explanatory notes - COAST

[audacityofhope]

Yet another poor hatchet job by Nation - declares Western - Raila stronghold - based on nothing but hubris
Remove 2m votes from Bungoma, kakamega, Tranzoia and Vihiga - and Raila trails by more than 1.5m votes.
You can add him Gusii/Nyamira where he will get 2/3.

But we in Western are saying we are blue. Surely. Forget optics. Who are you an outsider to dispute this?
When  I say optics, here is an example of a poorly kept secret: 900-strong ALL women in the front row clad in UDA colors that follow all UDA rallies wherever they are held.

[RV Pundit]

But you're incapable of being objective.
Opinion polls are consistently showing it a close battle..Raila has a slightly edge..mostly because he sweep Busia.
Busia yes is Raila's stronghold.
But Bungoma,Kakamega and Vihiga - nope.
Tranzoia is actually Ruto stronghold - because he start with solid 40 percent of Kalenjin+Kikuyu before you add Luhyas.

Learn to be objective so you dont disappear into depression in 4 months time.

But we in Western are saying we are blue. Surely. Forget optics. Who are you an outsider to dispute this?

[audacityofhope]

But you're incapable of being objective.
Opinion polls are consistently showing it a close battle..Raila has a slightly edge..mostly because he sweep Busia.
Busia yes is Raila's stronghold.
But Bungoma,Kakamega and Vihiga - nope.
Tranzoia is actually Ruto stronghold - because he start with solid 40 percent of Kalenjin+Kikuyu before you add Luhyas.

Learn to be objective so you dont disappear into depression in 4 months time.

But we in Western are saying we are blue. Surely. Forget optics. Who are you an outsider to dispute this?

God willing we will all be here. Mr. <Uhuru will betray Raila>, let us revisit this post.
And talking of the 900, is it not strange that while Azimio can hold multiply rallies nationwide at anytime, Kenya Kwisha can only hold one at a time?

[RV Pundit]

Sure, let met on 9th August. Some of us have been doing these numbers - and our record speak for itself.

As for Mr Uhuru - I clearly OVERSTIMATED his intelligence -now he is literally crying - and also desperately sending SMS to all elected MPs - irrespective of party - in Mt kenya to go see him. Labda ni pombe mingi but clearly Mr Uhuru Kenyatta is in the ropes.

"The Nation understands that the President has tasked a team to prepare a one-week report on the real situation in Mt Kenya. Those in the team include Interior Principal Secretary Karanja Kibicho, Jubilee political coordinator Nancy Gitau, Director of Intelligence Wachira Kameru, Directorate of Criminal Investigations head George Kinoti and Jubilee secretary-general Jeremiah Kioni"

God willing we will all be here. Mr. <Uhuru will betray Raila>, let us revisit this post.
And talking of the 900, is it not strange that while Azimio can hold multiply rallies nationwide at anytime, Kenya Kwisha can only hold one at a time?

[audacityofhope]

Busia yes is Raila's stronghold....

Just like a broken clock in a 24hr cycle, you are right about this one. One Ababu Namwamba, an ally of Luto knowing it is a futile exercise to vie on a UDA ticket said he would not contest any seat in Busia. Here is Senior counsel in 2017 predicting that we would never hear of Ababu Namwamba giving reasons why and sure enough we have never heard 'of him' since.
Watch the video by clicking at this link:
You will never hear of Ababu Namwamba after 2017

[RV Pundit]

MOAS for Busia - Ruto will get votes upto 35% - about half of Iteso - and 1/4 of other Luhyas. Bunyasi is running on ANC for governorship. Ruto has two strong MP cadidates for Iteso South and North. URP in 2013 won two seats of Iteso.

Raila will run away with Samia and Banyalas - but will split Marachis and Iteso.

In my estimate Raila get 65-70 percent. Ruto about 30-35 percent.

Just like a broken clock in a 24hr cycle, you are right about this one. One Ababu Namwamba, an ally of Luto knowing it is a futile exercise to vie on a UDA ticket said he would not contest any seat in Busia. Here is Senior counsel in 2017 predicting that we would never hear of Ababu Namwamba giving reasons why and sure enough we have never heard 'of him' since.
Watch the video by clicking at this link:
You will never hear of Ababu Namwamba after 2017