Kiambaa, Muguga show Gema splits 50-50

[Nefertiti]

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The spin about machinery sijui intimidation from Tangatanga here is laughable. Same as the fake polls of UDA landslides.

This was the first square UDA vs Jubilee in a constituency ... the big difference with Juja is

1)no hiding behind PEP or local briefcase for Ruto. No fake "respect" for Uhuru
2)no 2022 vagueness for Uhuru... he is openly cobbling Handshake lineup as Raila campaign manager

What I see: Ruto has done poorly in Kiambaa and Muguga. Gema from 99% Uhuruto is now 50-50. Ruto  needs to break Jubilee to pieces and ensure eveyone flees to UDA. But this lucklustre result will make people dither in Jubilee. Ingekuwa at least 2-1 ala Juja and Rurii.

Raila needs to stitch together Handshake lineup. He is waiting for BBI ruling so he is careful not to declare he is running for PORK to keep Mdvd and Kalonzo hopeful. He has appointed Ruto boy Uhuru his campaign manager 

[Nefertiti]

In short Raila without NASA unity has not solidied non-Gema. Ruto has not solidified Gema.

This race remains very open.

[RV Pundit]

What is not wishful is UDA/Ruto are in GEMA frontdoor. What is wishful is BBI , Uhuru campaigning for Raila and finally NASA uniting. The most wishful is Raila getting 50 percent of GEMA

What is not wishful is this election ended indeed in a stalemate. There are of course local issues - but UDA did not manage to bury Jubilee completely.
There will be no funeral for Jubilee yet.

This good for Ruto - as UDA badly needed to enter front door of GEMA - not going through the window (PDP/TSP) - but it means he needs more work on Mt Kenya - and this also good to keep Babaman hopeful. Ruto needs Raila to win 2022.

The spin about machinery sijui intimidation from Tangatanga here is laughable. Same as the fake polls of UDA landslides.

This was the first square UDA vs Jubilee in a constituency ... the big difference with Juja is

1)no hiding behind PEP or local briefcase for Ruto. No fake "respect" for Uhuru
2)no 2022 vagueness for Uhuru... he is openly cobbling Handshake lineup as Raila campaign manager

What I see: Ruto has done poorly in Kiambaa and Muguga. Gema from 99% Uhuruto is now 50-50. Ruto  needs to break Jubilee to pieces and ensure eveyone flees to UDA. But this lucklustre result will make people dither in Jubilee. Ingekuwa at least 2-1 ala Juja and Rurii.

Raila needs to stitch together Handshake lineup. He is waiting for BBI ruling so he is careful not to declare he is running for PORK to keep Mdvd and Kalonzo hopeful. He has appointed Ruto boy Uhuru his campaign manager 

[Nefertiti]

Ruto is hardworking and organized. Raila is more strategic. I mean Raila just stole the Gema prince, decapitated Jubilee, and all this hard work Ruto must put in Gema is literally to undo Raila handshake effect. Whatever you give Raila in Gema remember he had NOTHING - maybe 2% - 3 years ago.

Ruto has played his biggest cards - hustler vs dynasty and bottom-up - some traction in Gema, flop in non-Gema. See Kalonzo has no known ideology or vision but delivered such a comprehensive rout in Machakos.

BBI is in court. If you think that is wishful thinking...  Raila and Kalonzos are hanging on it. That is why none of them will be caught dead with Ruto - cause that would ruin their chances - it posturing time. Even pwani crew are waiting to be CS.

And how is this Kiambaa outcome good for Ruto? If Jubilee does not die - that is very risky for Ruto - because if BBI resurrects Kimunyas will have goodies to sell. Don't forget BBI is Uhuru-Raila decoy to string everyone especially Gema.

Ati local issues - this was purely 2022. BBI is in comatose, Uhuru candidate is Raila, and you TIE 50-50 with him. Not good at all for Ruto.

What is not wishful is UDA/Ruto are in GEMA frontdoor. What is wishful is BBI , Uhuru campaigning for Raila and finally NASA uniting. The most wishful is Raila getting 50 percent of GEMA

What is not wishful is this election ended indeed in a stalemate. There are of course local issues - but UDA did not manage to bury Jubilee completely.
There will be no funeral for Jubilee yet.

This good for Ruto - as UDA badly needed to enter front door of GEMA - not going through the window (PDP/TSP) - but it means he needs more work on Mt Kenya - and this also good to keep Babaman hopeful. Ruto needs Raila to win 2022.

[RV Pundit]

If you begin from a wrong premise then you get everything wrong.

The premise that majority of those that voted Jubilee candidates; were voting or are willing to vote for Raila is untested and false;

In fact Jubilee spend more time running away from ODM/Raila in their campaigns - and took issues with merger talks.

Kimunya is even on video - saying they have no problem with Ruto on the top.

Why is Raila best opponent for Ruto...because GEMA including Uhuru himself will not vote for him.

If Babaman is made aware of this - and he was not a day-dreamer - he would do the rational thing - become a king maker.

Ruto is afraid of someone like Kalonzo or MaDVD or even Matiangi - becuase if UHuru was to sell one of those - they could get a traction - he could actually deliver some of that 50 (ignoring local issues) to them. Selling Babaman is something else - all we have heard is Tuju-Murathe ODM-Jubilee merger which even Kieleweke opposed...Raila is hard sell.

As for Raila handshake strategic moves- mmh - MAYBE YOU SHOULD CONSIDER HE IS BEING USED - rather than he is using anyone- and maybe you should review what he has really gained.

It almost seem Jubilee will rebrand into UDA - leaving ODM with baggage of old Jubilee rag. Brilliant moves.

Ruto is hardworking and organized. Raila is more strategic. I mean Raila just stole the Gema prince, decapitated Jubilee, and all this hard work Ruto must put in Gema is literally to undo Raila handshake effect. Whatever you give Raila in Gema remember he had NOTHING - maybe 2% - 3 years ago.

Ruto has played his biggest cards - hustler vs dynasty and bottom-up - some traction in Gema, flop in non-Gema. See Kalonzo has no known ideology or vision but delivered such a comprehensive rout in Machakos.

BBI is in court. If you think that is wishful thinking...  Raila and Kalonzos are hanging on it. That is why none of them will be caught dead with Ruto - cause that would ruin their chances - it posturing time. Even pwani crew are waiting to be CS.

And how is this Kiambaa outcome good for Ruto? If Jubilee does not die - that is very risky for Ruto - because if BBI resurrects Kimunyas will have goodies to sell. Don't forget BBI is Uhuru-Raila decoy to string everyone especially Gema.

Ati local issues - this was purely 2022. BBI is in comatose, Uhuru candidate is Raila, and you TIE 50-50 with him. Not good at all for Ruto.

What is not wishful is UDA/Ruto are in GEMA frontdoor. What is wishful is BBI , Uhuru campaigning for Raila and finally NASA uniting. The most wishful is Raila getting 50 percent of GEMA

What is not wishful is this election ended indeed in a stalemate. There are of course local issues - but UDA did not manage to bury Jubilee completely.
There will be no funeral for Jubilee yet.

This good for Ruto - as UDA badly needed to enter front door of GEMA - not going through the window (PDP/TSP) - but it means he needs more work on Mt Kenya - and this also good to keep Babaman hopeful. Ruto needs Raila to win 2022.

[Nefertiti]

You should not tie with retiring dynasty who has openly backed Raila. He was even marketing him in Ukambani. Ruto of course has performed poorly in non-Gema. His biggest threat is NASA (and Jubilee) sticking together especially through BBI. More than kingmaker or katikati candidate.

[RV Pundit]

We shall be here hopefully next year. I don't see how a wounded Uhuru can survive the coming onslaught on him - when he will be abandoned by most mt kenya politicians trooping to UDA. The kenyattas have so much to lose. They will negotiate. I think Museveni is working on that 

NASA - shida tupu - once you're done with Kalonzo (it gonna be hard) - you have maDVD and Weta in western - to bring on board - just so you can equal worse case scenario for RUTO

Ruto biggest threat is Raila becoming a King maker (Spoiler) or THEM GOING FOR SECOND ROUND - by splintering the votes - like they did in those by election - where all try to defend their turf against UDA.

UDA winning the coast had them really scared.

That is why Jubilee not dying today is good news for Ruto. I know other folks would love to finish Jubilee or Uhuru. But that will be a mistake. Raila need to be hopeful.

You should not tie with retiring dynasty who has openly backed Raila. He was even marketing him in Ukambani. Ruto of course has performed poorly in non-Gema. His biggest threat is NASA (and Jubilee) sticking together especially through BBI. More than kingmaker or katikati candidate.

[Nefertiti]

How do you expect these people to defect en masse?


https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-07-16-uda-win-in-kiambaa-should-worry-ruto--waiguru/

[RV Pundit]

Only the deaf and the blind would be forgiven if they didn't hear or see to Jubilee losses in Muranga, Kiambu, Nyandarua and Nakuru - those string of loses - clearly shows Jubilee is dead.

As of now - Mt kenya east have all abandoned Jubilee. Munya is left and he has run to PNU. Mt kenya east just manufactured some fake excues - but reality is the ground is anti-Jubilee in Meru-Tharaka-Embu - they are trying to hide behind Muturi.

Now let move Mt Kenya west - as we speak nearly all those in RV Kikuyus Mps who had supported Uhuru - have all returned back to Ruto. Waruguru in Laikipia is the last one waiting to join soon.

When it come to Nairobi - nearly all of them are back in hustler nation - and Bishop Wanjiru is incoming governor

Kiambu as we speak - out the 11 Mps - I think right now we only have Mwathi, Njomo and I think one woman still holding on.

Muranga Uhuru doing well hapo - I think he still has about 4mps - and Nyeri about 3mps

As for Waiguru - she knows even if she cross over - Ngirici will make mince meat of her. So for her - she is damned either way

It's like Nakuru's governor - I don't see how Moi illegitimate son will survive.

BOTTOMLINE - We have maybe 10 more defections - otherwise Ruto already has nearly the entire Mt kenya leadership - on the line - because Ruto control the ground game.

It's not the other way round - Uhuru has screwed the game so much - that ALLOWED RUTO THE GROUND GAME.

How do you expect these people to defect en masse?


https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-07-16-uda-win-in-kiambaa-should-worry-ruto--waiguru/

[Nefertiti]

Pundit that story of MPs have crossed over - your earlier spin was only 10 were Kieleweke - until a headcount in parliament. If UDA pulled a 2-1 margin maybe - but this lucklustre performance is bad. They have failed to cross over to UDA impressively. Only Wamuchomba and Lari guy have defected. Warugurus want a local alternative not UDA.

And why are Mt Kenya East hiding behind Muturi - instead of defecting to UDA? Such are the local alternatives that will kill Ruto. Last minute they will back Raila as Kurias and Kiunjuris back Ruto.

Pray BBI stays dead. Otherwise Gema itakuwa shida kubwa sana.

[RV Pundit]

Ruto is happy that Raila is hopeful. This is good. We do not want to finish Raila one year to election and give him time to do 2002 again. If everyone was to stampede out of jubilee to UDA - that will kill Raila.

For now let Raila think he has some votes in Mt kenya -

Pundit that story of MPs have crossed over - your earlier spin was only 10 were Kieleweke - until a headcount in parliament. If UDA pulled a 2-1 margin maybe - but this lucklustre performance is bad. They have failed to cross over to UDA impressively. Only Wamuchomba and Lari guy have defected. Warugurus want a local alternative not UDA.

And why are Mt Kenya East hiding behind Muturi - instead of defecting to UDA? Such are the local alternatives that will kill Ruto. Last minute they will back Raila as Kurias and Kiunjuris back Ruto.

Pray BBI stays dead. Otherwise Gema itakuwa shida kubwa sana.

[Nefertiti]

2002 deal was done in last 3 months. Ruto can also pull kingmaker - tosha Kiunjuri or Kuria Anyway it a good delusion that Raila is the best opponent for Ruto - cause he is so beatable.

Ruto is happy that Raila is hopeful. This is good. We do not want to finish Raila one year to election and give him time to do 2002 again. If everyone was to stampede out of jubilee to UDA - that will kill Raila.

For now let Raila think he has some votes in Mt kenya -

Pundit that story of MPs have crossed over - your earlier spin was only 10 were Kieleweke - until a headcount in parliament. If UDA pulled a 2-1 margin maybe - but this lucklustre performance is bad. They have failed to cross over to UDA impressively. Only Wamuchomba and Lari guy have defected. Warugurus want a local alternative not UDA.

And why are Mt Kenya East hiding behind Muturi - instead of defecting to UDA? Such are the local alternatives that will kill Ruto. Last minute they will back Raila as Kurias and Kiunjuris back Ruto.

Pray BBI stays dead. Otherwise Gema itakuwa shida kubwa sana.

[RV Pundit]

It not delusion; and it not something I just invented now; refer as far back as 2012 - or 2008 - we actually foresaw and have been praying for Raila to face Ruto.

The issue is simple - Some older Mt kenya folks who have issues with Ruto due to Moi memories or PEV - BUT when they see Raila - they forget everything - because they see RUTO as waaay better than Raila. This is how Trump became POTUS - Hillary or Killary just scares the hell out of many Americans more than Trump.

Raila is making merger with Jubilee. If Jubilee was to be buried completely now - and everyone was to stampede - that would be bad.

Let us have a few like Kuttuny, Ngunjiri and maybe 10 more of that type - making that merge please - and promising Raila heaven on earth.

But we know earth is hard.

2002 deal was done in last 3 months. Ruto can also pull kingmaker - tosha Kiunjuri or Kuria Anyway it a good delusion that Raila is the best opponent for Ruto - cause he is so beatable.

[Nefertiti]

These people are not about to join UDA


JEREMIAH KIONI: Kiambaa results mean 50% voters ditched hustler camp

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-07-17-jeremiah-kioni-kiambaa-results-mean-50-voters-ditched-hustler-camp/

[RV Pundit]

We shall see in the next few months - the aftermath- obviously - even dying carcass has some life - first it's well known hyenas like Kioni interested in making money to campaign for Jubilee to retain "50%" will move after lions are done - or to campaign for retiring Uhuru:) - yet they were running away from Raila and ODM - after that microbes like bacteria will descend on Jubilee. So yes Jubilee still has life - KANU still alive - with some people still feasting on KANU carcass - and others ford-k, narc, pnu. Jubilee may get 10-20Mps next election if Uhuru invest a billion shs on it.

The problem the anti-RUto wing have - they cannot sell Raila - they have no leader (unless Uhuru is not retiring) - and in short they have no game plan. In fact Mt Kenya East dying Jubilee branch is a little more troubling for RUto - if Kiraitu and company - were to coalesce around Muturi - and get some tractions. It's Ruto interest to ensure he doesn't get situation where Mt kenya east and west fallout when he picks a DPORK.

Again, we shall see in the next few months the directions Mt kenya politics - UDA already has most leaders already - I bet even Njama Kariri will first one to go Karen and get his yellow shirt. Anti-Ruto and Raila forces all seem to have hedged all their bets on Uhuru - and it could end in tears if Uhuru was to met Ruto tomorrow.

It would something if Jubilee had found a leader in Mt Kenya to take them beyond 2022 - but so far I dont see any such leader - kabogo has gone underground - Kimunya has his foot permanently stuck in mouth - and Munya is interested in Meru and has run to PNU - and who else - Matiangi died in Borabu - is stuck btw one year and join politics maybe through ODM - or stick around in 2022 and eat one more year - I think most of Matiangi crew are going to stick around the carcass that is Uhuru gov - and feast on it for another year until Nov or Dec when new gov will be sworn in.

These people are not about to join UDA


JEREMIAH KIONI: Kiambaa results mean 50% voters ditched hustler camp

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-07-17-jeremiah-kioni-kiambaa-results-mean-50-voters-ditched-hustler-camp/

[Nowayhaha]

Believe Kioni at your own peril. In 2013 he was Mudavadis Running mate but still voted for Uhuru.

These people are not about to join UDA


JEREMIAH KIONI: Kiambaa results mean 50% voters ditched hustler camp

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-07-17-jeremiah-kioni-kiambaa-results-mean-50-voters-ditched-hustler-camp/

[Nefertiti]

Every River Road analyst knows the Kiambaa & Muguga lucklustre performance is a nightmare for Ruto


Small-margin win in Kiambaa a problem for DP

https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/small-margin-win-in-kiambaa-a-problem-for-dp-3476508

[Nowayhaha]

I would take with a pinch of salt any article written by a Luo Journalist on matters U.D.A. seriously.

Every River Road analyst knows the Kiambaa & Muguga lucklustre performance is a nightmare for Ruto


Small-margin win in Kiambaa a problem for DP

https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/small-margin-win-in-kiambaa-a-problem-for-dp-3476508

[Nowayhaha]

Seriously  Mheshimiwa! You guys need to be whipped

— Mutula KilonzoJR CBS (@GvnMutula) July 16, 2021

[Nefertiti]

Going by the number of times we have been assured Gema and Jubilee laity long shifted to Ruto - these 50-50 outcomes are pleasantly surprising. We were told in 2018 that Kieleweke has 10 MPs - everyone else is Tangatanga. But every time a vote, an impeachment, a BBI or such headcount was done - Ruto numbers were revealed as voodoo. They hanged Waititu, Kindiki, Duale, Sonko - these diehard Ruto supporters always voted for Uhuru & Raila. So strange.

See now - all those places Pundit claims Jubilee lost and UDA won - uwongo mtupu. It's been ties and mixed fortunes just like Kiambaa and Muguga.  Before London, Hell's Gate, Kahawa, Juja and Rurii - they hid behind Kibicho, Murathe and dark forces. In Juja they hid behind PEP. Rurii is the only clean win in Gema - 2-1 margin. Muguga and Kiambaa is a tie.

Pundit is telling us the leaders have shifted to UDA. I am not sure how they can move now when they already moved in 2018  BBI vote was done in January or Feb? - Ruto lost by landslide in counties and parliament. Yey Ruto badmouths BBI at every turn.

You see Ngunjiri Wambugu is right. The vote exposes Ruto's alleged wave in Mt Kenya as false.

You know Pundit is still hopeful Uhuru is playing Raila and will endorse Ruto in April 2022. All this is an eloborate scheme

Seriously  Mheshimiwa! You guys need to be whipped

— Mutula KilonzoJR CBS (@GvnMutula) July 16, 2021