Chirchir - if you want pro-borno help with system for UDA election

[RV Pundit]

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Please let me know. This is embarrasing. This is 2021...with cloud infrastructure and auto-scaling through containers and orchastration through kubernets and likes. You need to design a system that can auto-scale to hundrends if not thousands of servers...during the election period..and then get killed to one server afterwards.

These kind of problems were already solved by Jeff Bezos - who had to endure christmas, black friday and such kind of traffic - and Bezos made a fortune from building  a cloud infrastructure - that he could rent to anyone who had their "chrismas" moment. You have failed like IEBC failed so much they seem to have given up on provisional results transmission.

At the very mininum - configure kubernetes Cluster AutoScale with cloud provider like AWS/Azure/Google - and you should be fine.

https://uda.ke/results/all/

[Nefertiti]

Maybe they can outsource the tech to Amazon or Microsoft... if the parties agree. Or even Chinese  I don't see any hope of IEBC stepping up. It been 10 years of same mess.

[RV Pundit]

IEBC after Supreme Court took issue with provisional results seems to have completely stopped it; Not good for democrazy.
ODM has given up - just waiting for Uhuru and the deep state to do everything for them.
UDA - has a very good system - inherited from Jubilee - they just need to design for heavy loads in one day.

Maybe they can outsource the tech to Amazon or Microsoft... if the parties agree. Or even Chinese  I don't see any hope of IEBC stepping up. It been 10 years of same mess.

[Nefertiti]

I looked at IEBC commissioner interviews and there is no Chirchir calibre in sight. Expect same incompetence. UDA or ODM illegal tallying center is pointless - only IEBC matters. Having machinery on one's side is therefore a big deal.

IEBC after Supreme Court took issue with provisional results seems to have completely stopped it; Not good for democrazy.
ODM has given up - just waiting for Uhuru and the deep state to do everything for them.
UDA - has a very good system - inherited from Jubilee - they just need to design for heavy loads in one day.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit why hasn't UDA bothered to push for electoral reforms? Raila has machinery so has turned a blind eye.

[RV Pundit]

Yes IEBC interviews pretty UNDERWHELMING.

The supreme court decision (which was wrong on facts - but good for Rule of Law) has made IEBC afraid to do anything extra - provisional result tallying system was one of those extras - but people hate when the results are different from their own reality. NASA hated the provisional tallying - just like they hate UDA.

UDA tallying for Muguga is almost good -  the election was so close - the difference of 27

What do you mean it doesn't matter. It certainly not illegal. The darkness allow for mischief. And the party need to build a system that collect evidence in case there is need to dash to supreme court. And you got only 14 days for presidential

So infact they need not only a result tranmsission systems but also election malpractise systems - where people can upload videos and pictures - tagged with location/polling stations - which would be used in case of election petitions.

These kinds of systems were suppose to provide more transparency and avoid 2007 mess - but when we are dealing with SOUR ODM LOOSERS -who want to blame servers - then servers will be taken out

I looked at IEBC commissioner interviews and there is Chirchir calibre in sight. Expect same incompetence. UDA or ODM illegal tallying center is pointless - only IEBC matters. Having machinery on one's side is therefore a big deal.

[RV Pundit]

Cok2010 is almost impossible to ammend. So what electoral reforms are those. IEBC commisioners are being interviewed and hopefully they will send only 5-6 names to Uhuru - so he can appoint - and don't give him room for mischief.

The Maina Kia rulling - making polling station the final tallying center - means any tinkering is hard.

UDA is also aware that Uhuru or state machinery cannot scale violence or intimidation or rigging - you can send all NIS officers or security officials to one by-election - but come the general election -  to be able to manipulate 50,000 polling stations is no joke- in an era of social mass media.

So UDA priority should be winning election in BIG MARGINS - more than 2 million difference with the opponent. Rigging only happen when margins are small - Muguga style.

Pundit why hasn't UDA bothered to push for electoral reforms? Raila has machinery so has turned a blind eye.

[Nefertiti]

So UDA strategy is huge margin - 2M - despite losing huge Jubilee chunk. The contra is it easier for Moses Kurias to guard one by-election from machinery - nationwide it everyone for himself. It is easier to cheat in general than by-election obviously.

Ruto has never run without GoK - including 2013. Raila has never had machinery. IEBC incompetence is bad for Ruto... especially lack of provisional. Having your own provisional results from Chirchir tallying center - maybe good for evidence - the other side will have their own matching IEBC.

[Nefertiti]

Anyway I don't see rigging as a Raila strategy or fallback. Hizo tabia za Jubilee. We are just happy there is no hostile machinery. Ruto will lose with big margins.

[RV Pundit]

Gov cannot get loyal 50K officer to deploy in 50k police stations to manipulate or intimidate votes. Just not possible.

Maina Kia rulling that makes polling station - final - has ended the rigging.

Jubilee did not rig. They beat Raila by huge margins - more than a million in both cases.

UDA strategy is simple - get 50 percent plus one - by retaining Jubilee coalition - and replacing any attrition in mt kenya - with turkanas, coast, western and such - assuming Uhuru will go nuts until the wire.

I think it very likely Uhuru will cut a deal with Ruto - because Kenyatta Empire cannot risk a Raila and cannot risk Ruto winning before they reconcile.

Obviously it important for Raila to run - so Ruto has to make sure he runs - by going slow on him.

Ruto was part of ODM that won in 2007 and were rigged.

So UDA strategy is huge margin - 2M - despite losing huge Jubilee chunk. The contra is it easier for Moses Kurias to guard one by-election from machinery - nationwide it everyone for himself. It is easier to cheat in general than by-election obviously.

Ruto has never run without GoK - including 2013. Raila has never had machinery. IEBC incompetence is bad for Ruto... especially lack of provisional. Having your own provisional results from Chirchir tallying center - maybe good for evidence - the other side will have their own matching IEBC.

[RV Pundit]

Raila strategy is to get the deep state or the mt kenya votes. As for Ruto losing - that could happen - hypothetically - if loses 50 percent of GEMA (worse case scenario) - Ruto will have lost 12-15 percent from Jubilee 54 percent (roughly assuming mt Kenya votes will be 25-30) - so he will be starting at 40-42 percent. That is pretty strong. He will need 8 percent....which he will get by improving in turkana, west pokot, narok, coast and part of western.

He could easily get 8 percent if he cuts  a deal with Wetangula Bukusu crew - 5 percent kind of guy . Now that is worse case scenario.

Anyway I don't see rigging as a Raila strategy or fallback. Hizo tabia za Jubilee. We are just happy there is no hostile machinery. Ruto will lose with big margins.

[Nefertiti]

Well, as Kiraitu told you - Ruto is more feared by Kenyatta and Gema elite than Raila. Ironically this big distrust has occured during 5yr marriage - it not fair to blame Raila - whatever Ruto did must be really bad in Uhuru inner circle. Raila merely exploited the wedge.

Uhuru actions speak louder than words - the guy even refuse to swear anti-BBI judges. Now he is literally Raila campaign manager. But keep hoping.

Gov cannot get loyal 50K officer to deploy in 50k police stations to manipulate or intimidate votes. Just not possible.

Maina Kia rulling that makes polling station - final - has ended the rigging.

Jubilee did not rig. They beat Raila by huge margins - more than a million in both cases.

UDA strategy is simple - get 50 percent plus one - by retaining Jubilee coalition - and replacing any attrition in mt kenya - with turkanas, coast, western and such - assuming Uhuru will go nuts until the wire.

I think it very likely Uhuru will cut a deal with Ruto - because Kenyatta Empire cannot risk a Raila and cannot risk Ruto winning before they reconcile.

Obviously it important for Raila to run - so Ruto has to make sure he runs - by going slow on him.

Ruto was part of ODM that won in 2007 and were rigged.

[RV Pundit]

Uhuru should concentrate his campaign in Mt kenya - where he is needed most. But if he is campaigning for Raila in Kisumu - then hiyo kicheko best.

It's in kenyatta interest to reconcile with Ruto - otherwise Ruto is already at front door of GEMA - right inside Kiambu. Dude unless Uhuru intends to commit political and commercial suicide - he is already on the ROPES - from Kiamba to Ichaweri - and Ruto has one year to cover that distance- surely he better negotiate. Ruto will in one year has probably overrun the entire central as more defections will come.

Remember previously Uhuru would have negotiated for political stuff as Mt Kenya leader...he would even have ordered Ruto to pick DPORK of his liking - and retained Jubilee Leadership and influence. Now Ruto knows he is bring maybe 10 percent max - considering he struggling in KIAMBU.

Right now he is only negotiating for Kenyatta personal stuff - like Moi negotiated with Kibaki - on NARC days - and stroke a personal deal that protected his family overseen by the Americans.

This I believe is what Museveni will help Kenyatta and Ruto - Kenyatta has to be assured that Ruto wont go for revenge on Kenyatta empire - coz he could

Btw:Kiraitu is one running all over like scared man - accusing Jubilee of crazy crimes - when he has been part of it.

Well, as Kiraitu told you - Ruto is more feared by Kenyatta and Gema elite than Raila. Ironically this big distrust has occured during 5yr marriage - it not fair to blame Raila - whatever Ruto did must be really bad in Uhuru inner circle. Raila merely exploited the wedge.

Uhuru actions speak louder than words - the guy even refuse to swear anti-BBI judges. Now he is literally Raila campaign manager. But keep hoping.

Gov cannot get loyal 50K officer to deploy in 50k police stations to manipulate or intimidate votes. Just not possible.

Maina Kia rulling that makes polling station - final - has ended the rigging.

Jubilee did not rig. They beat Raila by huge margins - more than a million in both cases.

UDA strategy is simple - get 50 percent plus one - by retaining Jubilee coalition - and replacing any attrition in mt kenya - with turkanas, coast, western and such - assuming Uhuru will go nuts until the wire.

I think it very likely Uhuru will cut a deal with Ruto - because Kenyatta Empire cannot risk a Raila and cannot risk Ruto winning before they reconcile.

Obviously it important for Raila to run - so Ruto has to make sure he runs - by going slow on him.

Ruto was part of ODM that won in 2007 and were rigged.

[Nefertiti]

You have been selling this post-Uhuru fear illogically. NOTHING will happen to Kenyatta or any old PORK no matter who wins. The competitive nature of Kenya tribal politics immunize retirees. In fact they will fuata Nyayo - whoever wins - as they trash MOUs and the loser breathes down their neck.

Now about Uhuru becoming Jubilee Supreme Leader - that laughable - it would be crowning Ruto. UHURU DOES NOT WANT RUTO TO BE PRESIDENT. You underrate him - but he has returned Ruto to the drawing board and given Raila another shot. Uhuru is the reason Ruto is fighting for Gema after sealing them in 2016. Those Kanini Kega, Kimunyas - Kieleweke - would be all Ruto if not for Uhuru. He is also behind BBI and keeping Handshake lineup alive. That is campaign manager JD - stategy, organization, mobilization. I really wonder what Ruto did - it was a very major blunder. Ruto vs Uhuru blunder is akin to Raila vs Kibaki blunder - bother jeopardized their clear shots at SH.

This thing is up in the air for now - with BBI as the biggest wildcard.

Uhuru should concentrate his campaign in Mt kenya - where he is needed most. But if he is campaigning for Raila in Kisumu - then hiyo kicheko best.

It's in kenyatta interest to reconcile with Ruto - otherwise Ruto is already at front door of GEMA - right inside Kiambu. Dude unless Uhuru intends to commit political and commercial suicide - he is already on the ROPES - from Kiamba to Ichaweri - and Ruto has one year to cover that distance- surely he better negotiate. Ruto will in one year has probably overrun the entire central as more defections will come.

Remember previously Uhuru would have negotiated for political stuff as Mt Kenya leader...he would even have ordered Ruto to pick DPORK of his liking - and retained Jubilee Leadership and influence.

Right now he is only negotiating for Kenyatta personal stuff - like Moi negotiated with Kibaki - on NARC days - and stroke a personal deal that protected his family overseen by the Americans.

This I believe is what Museveni will help Kenyatta and Ruto - Kenyatta has to be assured that Ruto wont go for revenge on Kenyatta empire - coz he could

Btw:Kiraitu is one running all over like scared man - accusing Jubilee of crazy crimes - when he has been part of it.

[RV Pundit]

I am just a pundit. I do not sell anything. If i did I would be in twitter or facebook pushing this. This forum barely has 20 users

Raila fear by Kenyattas is REAL.Raila and his father were jailed for combined 20yrs  by Mois-Kenyattas - and have been "rigged" by them for another 30yrs or 60yrs.

If you do not know what Ruto did; then he probably did nothing . The only thing Ruto did was to outshine the master in the looting arena . So for the 2nd term, how can he maximize his 5yrs. He did not want co-president to be consulted - and he found convinient tool in Raila. Promise him BBI and 2022 - and because he is so desperate - he wont ask to EAT anything - except left overs.

Uhuru knew he had 5yrs - Ruto has 10 yrs. So all this MANUFUCTURED outrage I keep telling you is just Uhuru denying Ruto a chance in the eating trough.

It's not real - that is why Moses Kuria his Mp doesnt buy it - that is why all MPs who were with Uhuru are going back to Ruto.

They have been close to Uhuru to know this game Kenyatta is playing to EAT ALONE. Uhuru does not want anybody else eating - not pesky Mps or politicians - he is EATING ALONE.

REMEMBER ALL OUR POLITICIANS ARE IN POLITICS TO EAT - FIRST AND FOREMOST. This is their wall street. They get to decide 30 billion dollars annuall.

You have been selling this post-Uhuru fear illogically. NOTHING will happen to Kenyatta or any old PORK no matter who wins. The competitive nature of Kenya tribal politics immunize retirees. In fact they will fuata Nyayo - whoever wins - as they trash MOUs and the loser breathes down their neck.

Now about Uhuru becoming Jubilee Supreme Leader - that laughable - it would be crowning Ruto. UHURU DOES NOT WANT RUTO TO BE PRESIDENT. You underrate him - but he has returned Ruto to the drawing board and given Raila another shot. Uhuru is the reason Ruto is fighting for Gema after sealing them in 2016. Those Kanini Kega, Kimunyas - Kieleweke - would be all Ruto if not for Uhuru. He is also behind BBI and keeping Handshake lineup alive. That is campaign manager JD - stategy, organization, mobilization. I really wonder what Ruto did - it was a very major blunder. Ruto vs Uhuru blunder is akin to Raila vs Kibaki blunder - bother jeopardized their clear shots at SH.

This thing is up in the air for now - with BBI as the biggest wildcard.

Uhuru should concentrate his campaign in Mt kenya - where he is needed most. But if he is campaigning for Raila in Kisumu - then hiyo kicheko best.

It's in kenyatta interest to reconcile with Ruto - otherwise Ruto is already at front door of GEMA - right inside Kiambu. Dude unless Uhuru intends to commit political and commercial suicide - he is already on the ROPES - from Kiamba to Ichaweri - and Ruto has one year to cover that distance- surely he better negotiate. Ruto will in one year has probably overrun the entire central as more defections will come.

Remember previously Uhuru would have negotiated for political stuff as Mt Kenya leader...he would even have ordered Ruto to pick DPORK of his liking - and retained Jubilee Leadership and influence.

Right now he is only negotiating for Kenyatta personal stuff - like Moi negotiated with Kibaki - on NARC days - and stroke a personal deal that protected his family overseen by the Americans.

This I believe is what Museveni will help Kenyatta and Ruto - Kenyatta has to be assured that Ruto wont go for revenge on Kenyatta empire - coz he could

Btw:Kiraitu is one running all over like scared man - accusing Jubilee of crazy crimes - when he has been part of it.

[Nefertiti]

  I see. So we expect Uhuru to recant BBI and denounce Raila last minute. When is that - Dec? Or May next year? "Eating alone" is fairgame but he is definitely delivering his promise to Raila. The Ruto betrayal is real - he is not just being denied the loot.

Politricks kweli. Here Trump shenanigans, then China rising geopolitics - I can barely keep up with the free entertainment.

[RV Pundit]

He doesn't have recant; BBI was designed to fail like it has; That is why Uhuru played time; wasted lots of time; in BBI 1 -2 -3. And committed fatal errors from get go. Uhuru knew he would play time or someone would go to court - and kill it.

Uhuru interest in BBI right now is just to untie himself from personal fidicuiary responsibility. That part he didn't anticipate.

If you seriously think Uhuru can commit 20 errors in BBI without intending to then you're a BIG IDIOT. The first day BBI was unveiled - what did I tell you - WHY IS UHURU Not going to parliament - get act of parliament or something in law.

Uhuru passive aggressive relationship with ruto - I wont even call it betrayal - it more mistreatment and humiliation - because where is cabinet reshuffle or gov of national unity?

I see. So we expect Uhuru to recant BBI and denounce Raila last minute. When is that - Dec? Or May next year? "Eating alone" is fairgame but he is definitely delivering his promise to Raila. The Ruto betrayal is real - he is not just being denied the loot.

Politricks kweli. Here Trump shenanigans, then China rising geopolitics - I can barely keep up with the free entertainment.