Sacred 'Endorse Me' Alliance takes shapes and isolate Raila

[RV Pundit]

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https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-03-15-musalia-gideon-kalonzo-pick-team-to-build-coalition-ahead-of-2022/

[Nefertiti]

You wish! Mutua chap chap just withdrew from Machakos on Uhuru and Raila advice. Sacred union is a handy short-term strategy by the flowergirls to 1)contain Ruto (and Raila) in their tribal strongholds and 2)position for bargaining power in BBI tent.

The fact Mutua can give in to Wiper at Uhuru-Raila prodding says alot: Uhuru-Raila see Ruto as the threat and not Kalonzo or Mdvd.

[RV Pundit]

Mutua and Raila flower girls are not worthy any serious votes; Hiyo ni kama Najib Balala - good for the picture.

Mutua and Kibwana have recently shot themselves on their foot - Mutua with this decision to chicken out - and Kibwana with BBI.  And so are Oparanyas/Mukhisa. Joho is going kaput with ODM in the coast as Kingi has the right strategy.

On the rise is Kalonzo, MaDVD and Weta - they are the 4-8% - and Giddy is just confused Uhuru friend.

End of day - Raila is getting weaken completely by rise of sacred alliance, Matiangi and Kingi - eating NASA zone. Ruto is still man to beat - until GEMA abandon him.

Ruto still playing offensive nationally - that is what ODM used to do - now it's NDP.

You wish! Mutua chap chap just withdrew from Machakos on Uhuru and Raila advice. Sacred union is a handy short-term strategy by the flowergirls to 1)contain Ruto (and Raila) in their tribal strongholds and 2)position for bargaining power in BBI tent.

The fact Mutua can give in to Wiper at Uhuru-Raila prodding says alot: Uhuru-Raila see Ruto as the threat and not Kalonzo or Mdvd.

[Nefertiti]

One thing. Giddy has nothing to lose with Ruto juggernaut. I think the fool has not accepted his fate. Hopeless.

Two: Mdvd-Weta-Kalonzo were under serious threat - worse than Raila - from Ruto onslaught. It do or die for them. Mdvd is smiling ear-to-ear now issuing papal economic edicts from Mdvd Center. I am not sure how the fool cannot just talk from ANC office. He seem to pamper and ready himself for endorsement.

Three: Raila BBI strategy remain the best so far: use BBI as manifesto for big tribal coalition. Unlike NARC or ODM or Jubilee - BBI is hard-cast bankable MOU. Bottomline - all these sacred flowergirls, Kingis, Mutuas, etc - are firmly pro-BBI. Why? it a blank cheque. Why would Mutua or Kivutha or Kingi oppose BBI? - that akin to opposing their own interest.

So - you say ODM is NDP - but how is Ruto mean machine Jubilee? Dead. How is UDA faring? - not looking so good - lost bad in Luhya, Gusii and shying in Garissa - Duale home?? Struggling in GEMA - I mean stepping aside in Juja for Kuria PEP I thought coalitions will be done last-minute in April next year

Mutua and Raila flower girls are not worthy any serious votes; Hiyo ni kama Najib Balala - good for the picture.

Mutua and Kibwana have recently shot themselves on their foot - Mutua with this decision to chicken out - and Kibwana with BBI.  And so are Oparanyas/Mukhisa. Joho is going kaput with ODM in the coast as Kingi has the right strategy.

On the rise is Kalonzo, MaDVD and Weta - they are the 4-8% - and Giddy is just confused Uhuru friend.

End of day - Raila is getting weaken completely by rise of sacred alliance, Matiangi and Kingi - eating NASA zone. Ruto is still man to beat - until GEMA abandon him.

Ruto still playing offensive nationally - that is what ODM used to do - now it's NDP.

[Nefertiti]

RV - so what is Ruto strategy - if BBI turn out to be 2022 combo as I have opined all along? And as is shaping out with the timelines. Raila BBI tent can accomodate everyone - so he does not need to appease Kalonzo or Mdvd or Matiang'i - cause self-interest.

What will Ruto do - Raila-BBI-Yes vs Ruto-BBI-Maybe? Or will he endorse BBI to open D/PMs lineup? Or go No?

[RV Pundit]

There is only one strategy to become PORK in kenya - win 50% plus one. Ruto strategy remain the same - repeat Jubilee alliance of GEMA+RV - 50-50 with GEMA - and top up with rest. It almost forgone conclusion it will be Ruto-Kiunjuri ticket - and then a few flower girls and top up. Ruto has to maintain the Jubilee alliances - and where the lameduck Uhuru might snatch some votes for KANU or even Raila - Ruto will snatch from Non-GEMA.

As for Baba, Uhuru, Kalonzo - their strategy - well nobody really knows

RV - so what is Ruto strategy - if BBI turn out to be 2022 combo as I have opined all along? And as is shaping out with the timelines. Raila BBI tent can accomodate everyone - so he does not need to appease Kalonzo or Mdvd or Matiang'i - cause self-interest.

What will Ruto do - Raila-BBI-Yes vs Ruto-BBI-Maybe? Or will he endorse BBI to open D/PMs lineup? Or go No?

[Nefertiti]

Raila strategy is BBI... which is going very well. It state-sponsored with uhuru as campain manager... meetings are held at SH. I can remind you the line-up.

Sacred Alliance flower-girls are doing well to fend-off Ruto offensive in Luhya, Kamba, etc - their success has all but scuttled Ruto Moi 40% strategy. Moi had Kamatusa, NFD, Coast, Kamba, Maragoli - but UDA is not even URP level. After losing Luhya and Gusii and underperforming in Kikuyu - now chickening out in Garissa and Juja is very bad sign. What is the excuse in Garissa - scared of Jubilee? Juja (and entire Mt Kenya) should UDA not be working with MK TSP? Instead of Kuria PEP. That might complicate things later if Kuria grow an ego.

There is only one strategy to become PORK in kenya - win 50% plus one. Ruto strategy remain the same - repeat Jubilee alliance of GEMA+RV - 50-50 with GEMA - and top up with rest. It almost forgone conclusion it will be Ruto-Kiunjuri ticket - and then a few flower girls and top up. Ruto has to maintain the Jubilee alliances - and where the lameduck Uhuru might snatch some votes for KANU or even Raila - Ruto will snatch from Non-GEMA.

As for Baba, Uhuru, Kalonzo - their strategy - well nobody really knows

[Nefertiti]

The question you duck Pundit: assume you are in April 2022 - and IEBC has announced 8 ballot election - usual seats plus BBI yes-no. What does Ruto do then? After Raila unveil BBI lineup: Raila-Kalonzo-PK-Mdvd-Matiang'i. You haven't thought this through, have you?

[RV Pundit]

If Uhuru and gema elite backs Raila - I think Ruto will also postphone his dream for 10yrs. It simply impossible. You have failed to get a scenario where Raila wins without state support. You cannot even consider a Plan B because it doesn't exist.

Raila strategy is BBI... which is going very well. It state-sponsored with uhuru as campain manager... meetings are held at SH. I can remind you the line-up.

Sacred Alliance flower-girls are doing well to fend-off Ruto offensive in Luhya, Kamba, etc - their success has all but scuttled Ruto Moi 40% strategy. Moi had Kamatusa, NFD, Coast, Kamba, Maragoli - but UDA is not even URP level. After losing Luhya and Gusii and underperforming in Kikuyu - now chickening out in Garissa and Juja is very bad sign. What is the excuse in Garissa - scared of Jubilee? Juja (and entire Mt Kenya) should UDA not be working with MK TSP? Instead of Kuria PEP. That might complicate things later if Kuria grow an ego.

There is only one strategy to become PORK in kenya - win 50% plus one. Ruto strategy remain the same - repeat Jubilee alliance of GEMA+RV - 50-50 with GEMA - and top up with rest. It almost forgone conclusion it will be Ruto-Kiunjuri ticket - and then a few flower girls and top up. Ruto has to maintain the Jubilee alliances - and where the lameduck Uhuru might snatch some votes for KANU or even Raila - Ruto will snatch from Non-GEMA.

As for Baba, Uhuru, Kalonzo - their strategy - well nobody really knows

[RV Pundit]

GEMA will not back Raila; both elite and laity fear him more than Ruto. The rest are details. Raila is on plan B - with likes of mutua, joho, oparanya.
If GMEA elite back Raila; it will be a new dawn - they have clearly rejected him for 20yrs now.

The way I see - Raila will be kept in the loop and deep state/uhuru will work on 2nd round contest - btw their favourite proxy and RUto - and Raila will be told to support the handshake president - in exchange of power agreement.

If that happens - Raila - will be the kingmaker of 2022 - therefore Ruto will need to recalibrate his attack on him - and focus on the cerelac baby being sired by Uhuru.

The question you duck Pundit: assume you are in April 2022 - and IEBC has announced 8 ballot election - usual seats plus BBI yes-no. What does Ruto do then? After Raila unveil BBI lineup: Raila-Kalonzo-PK-Mdvd-Matiang'i. You haven't thought this through, have you?