1) For every vote GEMA elite wins back - Ruto get two in Non-GEMA - because GEMA elite are using BBI arguments that it will bring more benefits to them from marginalized areas.
2) Moi won without a single kikuyu vote. Kibaki in 97 had entire GEMA plus (Raila his luos, Ngilu kambas, Wamalwa bukusu etc) - but Moi got 40% from small tribes. Ruto Plan A has always been to rebuild that Moi alliance - the one that has been helping Raila win in 2007 and almost win in subsequent elections. That project has succeeded because if you look up Moi old constituency - Ruto has very small bits and parts to get there. So it possible for Ruto to win 40% like Moi without any GEMA.
3) GEMA people are stuck btw Raila and Ruto - it obvious for many Ruto is the lesser evil. Raila is already an impossible sell. Nobody is selling him anymore. They are busy trying to divorce Raila from BBi. Therefore Ruto will not be competing with Raila in GEMA but either another GEMA candidate or another proxy.
4) Raila is losing Non-GEMA for sucking up to GEMA and Ruto is inhering that. Once Ruto has 40% support of his own - he is free basically to go for even a Non-GEMA deputy if he wanted. But obviously he will still go for GEMA deputy - coz he still has significant support and is keen not just win by 50% but by higher unriggable margin.
Bottomline - GEMA elite are scoring their own goal - they are in cul-de-sacs - and a kikuyu may not even become DPORK in 2022 - if GEMA elites will be running 2 tribe propaganda. Ruto could go with Meru like Prof Kindiki and still get significant portion of Kikuyus votes.
https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/dp-william-ruto-meets-hostile-crowd-in-ol-kalou-3291400... the idea that Ruto has the whole mountain under his thumb is propaganda and fallacy. I do get it though, politics is more about perception than ideas. Ruto seems to be ahead right now, he has a lot of energy and you cannot deny but once he starts going after Uhuru, the kikuyu siege gene takes over. Kikuyus start seeing Moi all over again, that is an era Kikuyus want to forget and move on.