Ruto Must be Wary of the dynasty lure, ensnare and fattening up tactics

[Njuri Ncheke]

• Tweet

The deep state having lost ground to Ruto has resorted to clandestine methods to undermine him, they have realized they can't go toe to toe with Ruto. Due to this they are resorting to fattening him up tactics for the slaughter. The venue is the by elections in Western and Ukambani. In Ukambani Ruto though controlling the masses is up against Kalonzo whose method is to stoke up kamba nationalism. This tactic might cost Ruto dearly there, Ruto needs to stay out directly and engineer matters backstage. Same thing in Western Mdvd and others are stoking Luhya nationalism this will play unfavorably should Ruto directly campaign there. The system is ready to buy voters with even 5k each person to make sure Ruto fails there and bring a new narrative that he has No support. Ruto need to know better and avoid those fights he can let his lieutenants do stuff but he should appear largely uninterested in happenings. Ruto needs to know as much as he wants to win NASA Territories the luhya and kamba people are not ones you can rely on entirely. My advice for him is to just lay low and gauge how the masses will react.
Bad choices also can cost him picking up Margaret Wanjiru for Nairobi was a poor choice, there was NO guarantee that Nairobians would have voted her, Ruto should shun opportunistic people that are already compromised. He has nothing to loose there are decent people out there that can go for seats. If he allows every Tom Dick and Harry things will turn out wrongly.

[RV Pundit]

Ukambani maybe. I think Ruto has such strong presence in Luhyaland he needs to be on the ground there. Ukambani he should leave it to Muthama-Sonko-Kivutha. Luhya is not united tribe like Kambas - so Ruto can cherrypick the subtribes - and leave Maragolis for maDVD.

But yes he should hit them Msabweni style - stealth mode - whenever possible.

Ultimately Ruto just need 1/3 of Ukambani/Luhyaland/coast etc - and so far I see him getting even 40-50%.

Ruto should completely lockdown RV - including GEMA diaspora - that gives him 25% heads tart nationally - and is half the distance to PORK already covered.

The remaining 25% - divided by 7 old provinces - roughly need to get 3% of the national vote - from each - and he nicks it.

Nairobi, Central, Eastern, NEP - he will definitely get that -  and even more in some areas to cover Nyanza (definitely hard for him). Coast and Western is where he need to really work hard.

I don't see how Ruto will lose 2022.

The deep state having lost ground to Ruto has resorted to clandestine methods to undermine him, they have realized they can't go toe to toe with Ruto. Due to this they are resorting to fattening him up tactics for the slaughter. The venue is the by elections in Western and Ukambani. In Ukambani Ruto though controlling the masses is up against Kalonzo whose method is to stoke up kamba nationalism. This tactic might cost Ruto dearly there, Ruto needs to stay out directly and engineer matters backstage. Same thing in Western Mdvd and others are stoking Luhya nationalism this will play unfavorably should Ruto directly campaign there. The system is ready to buy voters with even 5k each person to make sure Ruto fails there and bring a new narrative that he has No support. Ruto need to know better and avoid those fights he can let his lieutenants do stuff but he should appear largely uninterested in happenings. Ruto needs to know as much as he wants to win NASA Territories the luhya and kamba people are not ones you can rely on entirely. My advice for him is to just lay low and gauge how the masses will react.
Bad choices also can cost him picking up Margaret Wanjiru for Nairobi was a poor choice, there was NO guarantee that Nairobians would have voted her, Ruto should shun opportunistic people that are already compromised. He has nothing to loose there are decent people out there that can go for seats. If he allows every Tom Dick and Harry things will turn out wrongly.

[Njuri Ncheke]

That's a good strategy point is he should not be carried away and accept dynasties to choose battles for him should be strictly vice versa. In 2022 there is NO WAY dynasty can defeat Ruto actually if they unite against him the better because wananchi will simply revert to the 2002 mode. But Ruto has to be seen with serious people in his ranks not compromised people.