Mobutu cannot outdo GoK in ukora

[Nefertiti]

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Mobutu is addicted to impunity. Class warfare is quickly degenerating into chaos. His minions Nyoro and Wahome are likely to be gagged like Sudis.

[Nefertiti]

 

[RV Pundit]

You overrate gov capacity. It's been 3yrs since the entire harambee house and gov was mobilized to fight Ruto and he is becoming even more popular. At least those days Ruto was in the ropes with allegation of corruption. Now he is cloud 9 politically - without any graft allegation or Jubilee baggage. The dynasty are so scared they are considering proscribing hustler movement - which will make it even more powerful.

Once raia taste "blood"; there will be no stopping them.

This moment where Ruto can make or break. When they go hard - he needs to go

[Nefertiti]

If Kenya was US or UK - hustler would be unstoppable Trump - deplorables are the hustlers here. Media and everyone tried to malign them with all fake polls but Trump wiped the floor with Hillary. But then again - Mobutu with long rapsheet of PEV and looting might be long locked up if Kenya was not a banana republic.

I know it hard to swallow but Zamunda is 200 years behind the west politically. Kibaki was praised for few years for freedom, free press, bla bla - shortly after your warriors were roasting kids in Nazi chambers. New laws such as NCIC Act give PORK lots of power. Mobutu ambition is presently against the national interest. Where "national interest' of course is what PORK says it is. Seem now Tangatanga need OCS permission to hold rallies. Hustler is now NRM outlaws - Mobutu militia just lynched fellow hustlers in Murang'a - now it nearly a crime to back Mobutu. Just like Raila, Mobutu is untouchable - but like Miguna, Ndii, Aladwa - Nyoro, Wahome, Khalwales will be gagged like Sudi. They will be charged with hate speech - they will get 1M bail on condition they don't engage in politics. Sudi cannot address media or rally cause his bail will be cancelled - and he will eat raw beans until Sep 2022. Murkomens were in best behavior at Sudi bail hearing - cause any rowdiness would be used to lock him up.

That the reality in a nutshell. But you are Pundit so all this is old news.

[RV Pundit]

You;re very young. Moi tried those things and failed. Nobody will even bother with Uhuru and his advisory or the police . Kenyans are not ugandans. The chief act was long proscribed. Nobody will go to OCS with such nonenses.

The more police break up meetings - the more they become popular.

You see - you're making Ruto very very popular - by trying to stop him.

Allow him the freedom to talk and people will get tired or start asking question.

But the moment raiai realize gov has something to fear about them ; Gov is dead meat.

If the last 3yrs - all the money and effort expendend has not paid fruit - change strategy

Politics is fought in political scene by political class - organize BBI like Railas that had taken Ruto sail - if Ruto does a rally here - do another rally there.
If Ruto calls press conference - respond
Ruto make an allegation - respond in the same forum

Otherwise unasumbua BURE POLICE MEN. They cannot fight political wars.

If Kenya was US or UK - hustler would be unstoppable Trump - deplorables are the hustlers here. Media and everyone tried to malign them with all fake polls but Trump wiped the floor with Hillary. But then again - Mobutu with long rapsheet of PEV and looting might be long locked up if Kenya was not a banana republic.

I know it hard to swallow but Zamunda is 200 years behind the west politically. Kibaki was praised for few years for freedom, free press, bla bla - shortly after your warriors were roasting kids in Nazi chambers. New laws such as NCIC Act give PORK lots of power. Mobutu ambition is presently against the national interest. Where "national interest' of course is what PORK says it is. Seem now Tangatanga need OCS permission to hold rallies. Hustler is now NRM outlaws - Mobutu militia just lynched fellow hustlers in Murang'a - now it nearly a crime to back Mobutu. Just like Raila, Mobutu is untouchable - but like Miguna, Ndii, Aladwa - Nyoro, Wahome, Khalwales will be gagged like Sudi. They will be charged with hate speech - they will get 1M bail on condition they don't engage in politics. Sudi cannot address media or rally cause his bail will be cancelled - and he will eat raw beans until Sep 2022. Murkomens were in best behavior at Sudi bail hearing - cause any rowdiness would be used to lock him up.

That the reality in a nutshell. But you are Pundit so all this is old news.

[Nefertiti]

Moi did not fail - he was PORK for 24 years. His victims Matiba and Rubias are sad relics. It Saitoti and Raila that really failed - as Kibaki sneaked in thru the KANU fireworks. Mobutu is actually at Raila 2007 level - or well Matiba 92 - Enemy of the State - anything he does is met head-on by machinery. Banana republic has pros and cons - you excel through ukora and enjoy impunity - provided you back the powers that be - aka dynasties. Raila attempted this in 2002 trojan - flopped - took Mobutu route in 2007 - flopped. He is back now with trojan 2.

Mobutu has outgrown impunity and ukora freeloading age. Now he is at rally & teargas rite of passage - might succeed in future depending on resilience - when the stars align ala Kibaki or he kiss the ring ala Raila. He is not the first demagogue to run Saba Saba mayhem - Jesus, Caesar, Jaramogi, JM, Matiba, Raila - even Kibaki been there done that. It a beaten path - at some point Saba Saba militia were even lynching cops let alone their fellow thugs. One must be made king but cannot crown themselves. Jaramogi crowned Jomo, Njonjo crowned Moi, Raila toshad Kibaki, Mobutu toshad Uhuru. Uhuru has toshad Raila.

I suspect it Gideon or Mdvd who will crown Mobutu in 2042. 

You;re very young. Moi tried those things and failed. Nobody will even bother with Uhuru and his advisory or the police . Kenyans are not ugandans. The chief act was long proscribed. Nobody will go to OCS with such nonenses.

The more police break up meetings - the more they become popular.

You see - you're making Ruto very very popular - by trying to stop him.

Allow him the freedom to talk and people will get tired or start asking question.

But the moment raiai realize gov has something to fear about them ; Gov is dead meat.

If the last 3yrs - all the money and effort expendend has not paid fruit - change strategy

Politics is fought in political scene by political class - organize BBI like Railas that had taken Ruto sail - if Ruto does a rally here - do another rally there.
If Ruto calls press conference - respond
Ruto make an allegation - respond in the same forum

Otherwise unasumbua BURE POLICE MEN. They cannot fight political wars.

If Kenya was US or UK - hustler would be unstoppable Trump - deplorables are the hustlers here. Media and everyone tried to malign them with all fake polls but Trump wiped the floor with Hillary. But then again - Mobutu with long rapsheet of PEV and looting might be long locked up if Kenya was not a banana republic.

I know it hard to swallow but Zamunda is 200 years behind the west politically. Kibaki was praised for few years for freedom, free press, bla bla - shortly after your warriors were roasting kids in Nazi chambers. New laws such as NCIC Act give PORK lots of power. Mobutu ambition is presently against the national interest. Where "national interest' of course is what PORK says it is. Seem now Tangatanga need OCS permission to hold rallies. Hustler is now NRM outlaws - Mobutu militia just lynched fellow hustlers in Murang'a - now it nearly a crime to back Mobutu. Just like Raila, Mobutu is untouchable - but like Miguna, Ndii, Aladwa - Nyoro, Wahome, Khalwales will be gagged like Sudi. They will be charged with hate speech - they will get 1M bail on condition they don't engage in politics. Sudi cannot address media or rally cause his bail will be cancelled - and he will eat raw beans until Sep 2022. Murkomens were in best behavior at Sudi bail hearing - cause any rowdiness would be used to lock him up.

That the reality in a nutshell. But you are Pundit so all this is old news.

[RV Pundit]

You;re a small girl . You think present day gov an pull a Moi. Moi had the law and infrastructure. It was completely dismantled such that by 2002 he was helpless. Uhuru has no such legal or even non-legal means.

That is why they are re-activating Mungiki and gangs.

Polie and Prov Administration, Judiciary and Media need to play ball.

Moi did not fail - he was PORK for 24 years. His victims Matiba and Rubias are sad relics. It Saitoti and Raila that really failed - as Kibaki sneaked in thru the KANU fireworks. Mobutu is actually at Raila 2007 level - or well Matiba 92 - Enemy of the State - anything he does is met head-on by machinery. Banana republic has pros and cons - you excel through ukora and enjoy impunity - provided you back the powers that be - aka dynasties. Raila attempted this in 2002 trojan - flopped - took Mobutu route in 2007 - flopped. He is back now with trojan 2.

Mobutu has outgrown impunity and ukora freeloading age. Now he is at rally & teargas rite of passage - might succeed in future depending on resilience - when the stars align ala Kibaki or he kiss the ring ala Raila. One must be made king but cannot crown themselves. Jaramogi crowned Jomo, Njonjo crowned Moi, Raila toshad Kibaki, Mobutu toshad Uhuru. Uhuru has toshad Raila. I suspect it Gideon or Mdvd who will crown Mobutu in 2042.

[Nefertiti]

And you are old cow - 35 years - with 30 year experience.

Kenya power balance is 3way - MOAS 2017 Clause 39 - Gema, Mobutu's URP, rest of non-Gema still with Raila now. Moi non-Gema coalition and machinery sustained him for 24 years. Until he retired. Kibaki + Raila seized power. Scorned Raila joined Ruto and almost overpowered Kibaki. Gema+URP beat Raila. Now it Gema + Raila again - NARC coalition. When shit hit the fun that is what matters - the balance of power. URP pastoralists cannot defeat UhuRao even with degraded GoK machinery. Because they have no urban warfare - their quivers only work in the bush. Akin to Sabaot SLDF guy.

Mungiki - those are just to tame Nyoro or Gachagua - Gema rebels. Any real war and the usual fault-lines erupt.

You;re a small girl . You think present day gov an pull a Moi. Moi had the law and infrastructure. It was completely dismantled such that by 2002 he was helpless. Uhuru has no such legal or even non-legal means.

That is why they are re-activating Mungiki and gangs.

Polie and Prov Administration, Judiciary and Media need to play ball.

Moi did not fail - he was PORK for 24 years. His victims Matiba and Rubias are sad relics. It Saitoti and Raila that really failed - as Kibaki sneaked in thru the KANU fireworks. Mobutu is actually at Raila 2007 level - or well Matiba 92 - Enemy of the State - anything he does is met head-on by machinery. Banana republic has pros and cons - you excel through ukora and enjoy impunity - provided you back the powers that be - aka dynasties. Raila attempted this in 2002 trojan - flopped - took Mobutu route in 2007 - flopped. He is back now with trojan 2.

Mobutu has outgrown impunity and ukora freeloading age. Now he is at rally & teargas rite of passage - might succeed in future depending on resilience - when the stars align ala Kibaki or he kiss the ring ala Raila. He is not the first demagogue to run Saba Saba mayhem - Jesus, Caesar, Jaramogi, JM, Matiba, Raila - even Kibaki been there done that. It a beaten path - at some point Saba Saba militia were even lynching cops let alone their fellow thugs. One must be made king but cannot crown themselves. Jaramogi crowned Jomo, Njonjo crowned Moi, Raila toshad Kibaki, Mobutu toshad Uhuru. Uhuru has toshad Raila.

I suspect it Gideon or Mdvd who will crown Mobutu in 2042. 

[RV Pundit]

You're very funny - every election has it's dynamics - little girl - do you know it was not always GEMA were united - and that is how Moi beat them; There are a lot of dynamics.

1) Accept that Uhuru is retiring - and GEMA has no prince. Their king is out and the orphans are causing little drama.
2) Accept that Uhuru will not stream-roll GEMA into accept any prince. They have to win their own support.
3) Accept that GEMA may not be united.
4) Divide GEMA into 6 parts - let me help you - Meru/Tharaka/Embu, Kirinyanga/Nyeri, Muranga, Kiambu, GEMA RV diaspora, GEMA diaspora in Nairobi and elsewhere.
5) I don't see anybody now post-Uhuru capable of uniting them all.

Ruto-Kiunjuri axis will probably win the majority - but upstart like PK might be competitive maybe in Muranga.

If I was to do MOAS now - I'd put Ruto at 60-70% of GEMA at worse case. Otherwise if PK is the candidate - Ruto-Kiunjuri will carry 80%.

And for losing 20% - Ruto is cannibalizing's NASA - so Ruto is definitely still on course for rig-proof 65% vote win.

Esp if the competitor will be old tired Raila and someone as PK or Matiangi.

And you are old cow - 35 years - with 30 year experience.

Kenya power balance is 3way - MOAS 2017 Clause 39 - Gema, Mobutu's URP, rest of non-Gema still with Raila now. Moi non-Gema coalition and machinery sustained him for 24 years. Until he retired. Kibaki + Raila seized power. Scorned Raila joined Ruto and almost overpowered Kibaki. Gema+URP beat Raila. Now it Gema + Raila again - NARC coalition. When shit hit the fun that is what matters - the balance of power. URP pastoralists cannot defeat UhuRao even with degraded GoK machinery. Because they have no urban warfare - their quivers only work in the bush. Akin to Sabaot SLDF guy.

Mungiki - those are just to tame Nyoro or Gachagua - Gema rebels. Any real war and the usual fault-lines erupt.

[RV Pundit]

Here they start with breaking a fundraising   - worst optic for Matiangi if he was hoping to get Gusii.

[Nefertiti]

That magic number again. Don't worry even Raila was at 48% after tosharing katiba 2010. By time machinery was done with him - by deploying their fierce mercenary Mobutu - he was at 35%. He topped up with Kalonzo-Weta to 45%. Mobutu is shackled - because the dynamics are not just ground but the tripod configuration. The contested ground is principally GEMA - and this makes any warrior leverage moot. You have Kipsigis battling Ogiek and Purko but noone dare touch Gema. This of course leave Mobutu at Uhuru mercy - you have the professional or respectful gentleman Joseph Kinyua reading the riot act. Next few Nyoros and Khalwales will be gagged - and hustler movement will die. Like covid did to BBI. If Ruto calls Uhuru bluff with illegal rallies - it will be just like Matiba Saba Saba or Raila IEBC reforms. The outcome is well known.

[RV Pundit]

They are actually campaigning for Ruto.But you won't know. COz again you're such a baby. The hustler movement if it was not known - now is national. Now kenyans have found something that scares gov so shitless they want to block fundraising. That is POWER. They are making hustler movement very powerful.

Ruto has moved on from difficult gema debt conversation to hustlers; It brilliant. Ruto has wanted this for long - and now it's happening. He is no longer the kalenjin candidate who just need GEMA to win. He is national. Raila has been here before but he lost...

Raila has lost because he doesn't tick all the boxes. Watch Ruto beat the so called system by huge margin.

That magic number again. Don't worry even Raila was at 48% after tosharing katiba 2010. By time machinery was done with him - by deploying their fierce mercenary Mobutu - he was at 35%. He topped up with Kalonzo-Weta to 45%. Mobutu is shackled - because the dynamics are not just ground but the tripod configuration. The contested ground is principally GEMA - and this makes any warrior leverage moot. You have Kipsigis battling Ogiek and Purko but noone dare touch Gema. This of course leave Mobutu at Uhuru mercy - you have the professional or respectful gentleman Joseph Kinyua reading the riot act. Next few Nyoros and Khalwales will be gagged - and hustler movement will die. Like covid did to BBI. If Ruto calls Uhuru bluff with illegal rallies - it will be just like Matiba Saba Saba or Raila IEBC reforms. The outcome is well known.

[RV Pundit]

Meeting shifted to market center and happened these kind of nonsense don't work.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Nyamira remains UNBOWED.<br><br>So are we <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/HustlerMovement?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#HustlerMovement</a> &amp; <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/HustlersClerk?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#HustlersClerk</a> <br><br>We are On!<br><br>Boda Sacco will be empowered today, whatever it takes.<br><br>If it was Nairobi Stock Exchange, hii sarakasi haingekuwa<br><br>If it was Kenya Bankers ingeendelea..<a href="https://twitter.com/IG_NPS?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@IG_NPS</a> wacha kudharau<br><br> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/HustlerNation?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#HustlerNation</a> <a href="https://t.co/HEOaKQguBo">pic.twitter.com/HEOaKQguBo</a></p>&mdash; Dennis Itumbi, HSC (@OleItumbi) <a href="

Nyamira remains UNBOWED.

So are we #HustlerMovement & #HustlersClerk

We are On!

Boda Sacco will be empowered today, whatever it takes.

If it was Nairobi Stock Exchange, hii sarakasi haingekuwa

If it was Kenya Bankers ingeendelea..@IG_NPS wacha kudharau

#HustlerNation pic.twitter.com/HEOaKQguBo

— -Dennis Itumbi, CBS (@OleItumbi) October 8, 2020

?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 8, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[Nefertiti]

Those are so many details. Matiba and Raila were very popular. There are 3 paths to power -

1) War - Jomo route. This worst route with unpredictable outcome of failed state, graveyards and/or ICC. The present 2 v 1 tripod mean this is moot.
2) Luck or tosha route - Moi, Kibaki, Uhuru. Usually sconed or selfish kahuna tosha the opponent to score temporary win and upend the real formidable competitor. Raila is angling for this just like NDP days.
3) Ballot - tried & failed. It needs level or fair game which is easy to disrupt. Matiba 92 and Raila 07 fall here - soon we might see Mobutu Saba Saba and old shenanigans as Kinyua ban hustler rallies. Mobutu could well beat the odds - it doable but very narrow thorny path to power.

[RV Pundit]

Any university that gave you a phd should be ashamed of you.
The winner in 2022 will be one who get 50% plus one.
That is what Ruto is working on.
There is nothing beyond that.
Kenya will go to ballot - and winner will be elected.
So far nobody is close to Ruto.
The nearest Raila is in mid 15s and basically has no plan B when (not IF) dumped by Uhuru.
BBI should give you enough cues that somebody is being played.
Test-tube Matiangi who think he can use prov admin will probably lose even in Nyamira

Those are so many details. Matiba and Raila were very popular. There are 3 paths to power -

1) War - Jomo route. This worst route with unpredictable outcome of failed state, graveyards and/or ICC. The present 2 v 1 tripod mean this is moot.
2) Luck or tosha route - Moi, Kibaki, Uhuru. Usually sconed or selfish kahuna tosha the opponent to score temporary win and upend the real formidable competitor. Raila is angling for this just like NDP days.
3) Ballot - tried & failed. It needs level or fair game which is easy to disrupt. Matiba 92 and Raila 07 fall here - soon we might see Mobutu Saba Saba and old shenanigans as Kinyua ban hustler rallies. Mobutu could well beat the odds - it doable but very narrow thorny path to power.

[Nefertiti]

You keep threatening PEV 2 for good reason - ballot is dead-beat path to nowhere. Matiba and Raila are proof. Moi, Kibaki, Uhuru were lucky and/or toshwad. Mobutu was never sleepwalking to SH cause of any genuine popularity - but to be toshwad by Uhuru. That history now.

PEV or war path is murky - with debris all over - Dedan Kimathi, General Mathenge, Ochuka. 2 were hanged - Mathenge whereabouts are unknown - Koigi brought senile guy from Ethiopia - but his DNA failed to match his would-be relatives.

It not impossible but fat chance.

Any university that gave you a phd should be ashamed of you.
The winner in 2022 will be one who get 50% plus one.
That is what Ruto is working on.
There is nothing beyond that.
Kenya will go to ballot - and winner will be elected.
So far nobody is close to Ruto.
The nearest Raila is in mid 15s and basically has no plan B when (not IF) dumped by Uhuru.
BBI should give you enough cues that somebody is being played.
Test-tube Matiangi who think he can use prov admin will probably lose even in Nyamira

Those are so many details. Matiba and Raila were very popular. There are 3 paths to power -

1) War - Jomo route. This worst route with unpredictable outcome of failed state, graveyards and/or ICC. The present 2 v 1 tripod mean this is moot.
2) Luck or tosha route - Moi, Kibaki, Uhuru. Usually sconed or selfish kahuna tosha the opponent to score temporary win and upend the real formidable competitor. Raila is angling for this just like NDP days.
3) Ballot - tried & failed. It needs level or fair game which is easy to disrupt. Matiba 92 and Raila 07 fall here - soon we might see Mobutu Saba Saba and old shenanigans as Kinyua ban hustler rallies. Mobutu could well beat the odds - it doable but very narrow thorny path to power.

[RV Pundit]

Predicting is not threatening. If it goes tribal and kikuyu-kalenjin fallout - you can expect such.
But I think Ruto may lead us to NARC like revolution.
Where all tribes will be united

You keep threatening PEV 2 for good reason - ballot is dead-beat path to nowhere. Matiba and Raila are proof. Moi, Kibaki, Uhuru were lucky and/or toshwad. Mobutu was never sleepwalking to SH cause of any genuine popularity - but to be toshwad by Uhuru. That history now.

PEV or war path is murky - with debris all over - Dedan Kimathi, General Mathenge, Ochuka. 2 were hanged - Mathenge whereabouts are unknown - Koigi brought senile guy from Ethiopia - but his DNA failed to match his would-be relatives.

It not impossible but fat chance.