Kieleweke to abandon Raila

[RV Pundit]

Manyora is dim-witted.
As dim-witted as Raila or any politician who is bettin on Uhuru.
When you guys realize that Uhuru is going back to Ichweri to enjoy his loot - and is not interested in politics - it will be too late.
Ruto would already have been sworn for another 10yrs.
Uhuru by mid-next year - nobody will care what he say or does.
Even right now - cabinet are already preparing their CVs - seeing where next they will land

We are in transition. If Ruto was fighting Uhuru going for re-election - some of these stupid theories would be right.
Ruto would be facing gov machinery.

But Ruto is not facing Uhuru. He has no opponent. All of them too scared to come forward.

They are waiting for Uhuru to transfer power to them - some are even calling for military take over - Kichwa is even calling Uhuru to just continue

Ruto and his chihuahuas got a dog beating in Kibra. Then they were chased like kids out of Jubilee and parliament. Now they are puffing their chests and daring UhuRao for the next bout. I know faith can move mountains but this is Kinjeketile bare-breast holy-water madness.

"It's not the people who vote that count, it's the people who count the votes." Voters of Kenya are like costumes, you only need them during the show and not during rehearsal. Its too early to even worry about who is going to vote for who at this time.   Voters are usually the last piece to be put in place in Kenyan politics. Kenyan voters can be mobilized to swing to one side or the other in a matter of literal  days. 2022 is still too far to even worry about voters.   Ruto has lost a lot of ground in a very short time and may not be around much longer given the downward trajectory.    Not too long ago he was a  powerful DP, and now he is wondering in the wilderness hanging out with cults who need his money badly for whatever reason.  He is going down very fast.

[Kichwa]

Pundito my broda, I see you are still hanging on tough for Ruto even when he is going down like a rock.  Just imagine where Ruto was not too long a go and look at where he is right now.  The trajectory is clearly downhill and yet you are asking us to believe you and not our lying eyes. I am starting to think that WSR may not even run for the presidency in 2022 after Ouru is finished with him.  When WSR sent his air-head surrogates like Ngeno and Sudi to abuse Mama Ngina, something in Ouru turned. Ruto can now forget the presidency so long as Ouru holds the instrument's of power.  He was already doing everything under his power to stop Ruto's dreams for the president, now I think he is doing "everything else plus).  WSR is cooked as far as the presidency is concerned. 

Manyora is dim-witted.
As dim-witted as Raila or any politician who is bettin on Uhuru.
When you guys realize that Uhuru is going back to Ichweri to enjoy his loot - and is not interested in politics - it will be too late.
Ruto would already have been sworn for another 10yrs.
Uhuru by mid-next year - nobody will care what he say or does.
Even right now - cabinet are already preparing their CVs - seeing where next they will land

We are in transition. If Ruto was fighting Uhuru going for re-election - some of these stupid theories would be right.
Ruto would be facing gov machinery.

But Ruto is not facing Uhuru. He has no opponent. All of them too scared to come forward.

They are waiting for Uhuru to transfer power to them - some are even calling for military take over - Kichwa is even calling Uhuru to just continue

Ruto and his chihuahuas got a dog beating in Kibra. Then they were chased like kids out of Jubilee and parliament. Now they are puffing their chests and daring UhuRao for the next bout. I know faith can move mountains but this is Kinjeketile bare-breast holy-water madness.

"It's not the people who vote that count, it's the people who count the votes." Voters of Kenya are like costumes, you only need them during the show and not during rehearsal. Its too early to even worry about who is going to vote for who at this time.   Voters are usually the last piece to be put in place in Kenyan politics. Kenyan voters can be mobilized to swing to one side or the other in a matter of literal  days. 2022 is still too far to even worry about voters.   Ruto has lost a lot of ground in a very short time and may not be around much longer given the downward trajectory.    Not too long ago he was a  powerful DP, and now he is wondering in the wilderness hanging out with cults who need his money badly for whatever reason.  He is going down very fast.

[RV Pundit]

Uhuru is not that powerful. And he is going home. He is using you to loot and pad his retirement package.
He doesn't want to share the loot with Ruto - and that is all their is on their fight.
And What make you think Uhuru has all the instruments of Power
What exactly is that? Why is Ngeno and Sudis out there freeeeeeee - because Kenya is a mature democracy!
All Uhuru can do is huff and puff - but he doesn't control any arm of gov - not evene exeuctive (completely).
kenya is NOt a monarchy.
Uhuru can only destroy Ruto in GEMA - the rest of the country has little respect for him and his directions.
Now within GEMA - he may only still has some support in mostly Kikuyu areas
And within those areas - that support is fizzling out.

If you read the article in first post - It's about Harambee house elite like Kibicho - getting jittery and trying to launch their post-Uhuru candidate.

Only a fool think Uhuru is our King who will appoint the gov he wishes to suceed him.

As powerful as Moi was - he failed.
Kibaki orphans attempted something stupid called UDF and maDVD their candidate was DOA.

Next two years - prepare to be on your own - ODM.

Kikuyu elite cannot take Raila to GEMA and risk eroding the little support they have.

They seem to want to use 1M1S to try chart a new path - and try re-connect to the wananchi.

If they stick to the message (1M1S) - they may be able to undo some of Ruto grassroot support in GEMA - but the moment they say BBI or Handshake or Raila.All those votes evaporate to thin air - and DR Ruto sleepwalks to PORK - with or without Kikuyu elite.

Bottomline; For Uhuru to become powerful again (meaning to regain GEMA) he MUST ditch Raila as a start.

That should take him to ground zero. Then if he endorse Ruto - he goes back. If he endorses someone else - he has a lot of explaining to do.

If he doesn't care like he has shown - he will quietly retire like Kibaki did - and leave kenyans to decide.

Pundito my broda, I see you are still hanging on tough for Ruto even when he is going down like a rock.  Just imagine where Ruto was not too long a go and look at where he is right now.  The trajectory is clearly downhill and yet you are asking us to believe you and not our lying eyes. I am starting to think that WSR may not even run for the presidency in 2022 after Ouru is finished with him.  When WSR sent his air-head surrogates like Ngeno and Sudi to abuse Mama Ngina, something in Ouru turned. Ruto can now forget the presidency so long as Ouru holds the instrument's of power.  He was already doing everything under his power to stop Ruto's dreams for the president, now I think he is doing "everything else plus).  WSR is cooked as far as the presidency is concerned. 

Manyora is dim-witted.
As dim-witted as Raila or any politician who is bettin on Uhuru.
When you guys realize that Uhuru is going back to Ichweri to enjoy his loot - and is not interested in politics - it will be too late.
Ruto would already have been sworn for another 10yrs.
Uhuru by mid-next year - nobody will care what he say or does.
Even right now - cabinet are already preparing their CVs - seeing where next they will land

We are in transition. If Ruto was fighting Uhuru going for re-election - some of these stupid theories would be right.
Ruto would be facing gov machinery.

But Ruto is not facing Uhuru. He has no opponent. All of them too scared to come forward.

They are waiting for Uhuru to transfer power to them - some are even calling for military take over - Kichwa is even calling Uhuru to just continue

Ruto and his chihuahuas got a dog beating in Kibra. Then they were chased like kids out of Jubilee and parliament. Now they are puffing their chests and daring UhuRao for the next bout. I know faith can move mountains but this is Kinjeketile bare-breast holy-water madness.

"It's not the people who vote that count, it's the people who count the votes." Voters of Kenya are like costumes, you only need them during the show and not during rehearsal. Its too early to even worry about who is going to vote for who at this time.   Voters are usually the last piece to be put in place in Kenyan politics. Kenyan voters can be mobilized to swing to one side or the other in a matter of literal  days. 2022 is still too far to even worry about voters.   Ruto has lost a lot of ground in a very short time and may not be around much longer given the downward trajectory.    Not too long ago he was a  powerful DP, and now he is wondering in the wilderness hanging out with cults who need his money badly for whatever reason.  He is going down very fast.

[Pajero]

Where is kiunjuri (purported Mobutu running mate) in all this matrix,he is missing in action.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit can draw that false comparison with Moi or Kibaki - who were senile in different circumstances. Moi did not mind Kibaki - their beef was Raila who was reformer. Kalenjin still voted Uhuru 70%. Kibaki wanted to impose Mdvd not only on Gema but entire country- against Prince Uhuru - still he did not really mind Uhuru but Raila. UDF was based on belief that Kenya was done with Gema PORK. Now today - Uhuru is not senile and is not imposing anyone. Ruto and Raila are both aliens - he merely smashed Kiunjuri, Waititu, Gachaguas and anyone pro-Ruto - as he props PK. He has pushed BBI, edged Ruto to GoK-Jubilee periphery, persecuted Cherargeis, Sudi inciters - orchestrated 1M1S. Now Gema MPs are meeting to decide direction - lead by Moses Kuria and Kibicho - you think they are meeting to endorse Ruto? They will endorse their own - to negotiate with non-Gema. We already know who Uhuru clique prefer even in the 11th hour looting and AOBs. Ruto is so deeply loathed and untrusted by this lot it astounding - after all the hardwork and promises - they will rather hand over to Raila by a mile.

[RV Pundit]

Kiunjuri has gone underground and is doing damage as always from radio station. His party TPS will negotiate with Jubilee Asili to form TNA-URP like coalition. Kiunjuri will be appointed DPORK of course.

On the GEMA elite front - we are hearing Kagwe/ Matiangi combination from Harambee house - and Peter Keneth from Muranga.

Both are dead on arrival - but Kagwe/Matiangi could at least fly because Gusii could buy into it.

As for PK - that one will die in Muranga.

Where is kiunjuri (purported Mobutu running mate) in all this matrix,he is missing in action.

[RV Pundit]

You're nearly getting it.
The idea from Uhuru orphans (again forget about Uhuru) like Kibichos is to front a candidate to negotiate for them post-Uhuru.
Now assume they manage to unite - and get us one united candidate - improbable in my view because all of them are 'nobodies'.
That candidate will come to the table - and decide - pre-election or post-election.
Now if they meet Ruto or Raila - they can only negotiate for DPORK.
If they meet Kalonzo or Matiangis or Wamalwas - they may give them DPORK - and run for PORK.

Now when it comes to Raila and Ruto - who is loathed by GEMA ground and distrustred by elite more - RAILA AMOLO ODINGA.
That is why despite Uhuru trying all that - and spending all the money - as long as Raila shadow hovers around him - he is DOA - and Ruto remain strong.

For a generation - Anti-Raila narrative has been woven - most GEMA think Raila is a devil child.

Ruto already paid his penancnes and is accepted by GEMA elite and ground - so he is an easy sell.

In short - Raila will never be PORK - hei is loathed by Jubilee base of GEMA-Kalenjin that scored 50%.

Ruto will negotiate with either GEMA breakway (Kiunjuri group) or united GEMA (Kibicho test-tube if they pull all stops and unite behind some candidate).
It's really their choice.

Ruto is ready with 50-50 deal btw GEMA and NON-GEMA to continue Jubilee dream.

In meantime Ruto has the rest of Jubilee and is busy cannibalizing ODM in kamtusa, mijikenda, luhya, gusii and name it.

Pundit can draw that false comparison with Moi or Kibaki - who were senile in different circumstances. Moi did not mind Kibaki - their beef was Raila who was reformer. Kalenjin still voted Uhuru 70%. Kibaki wanted to impose Mdvd not only on Gema but entire country- against Prince Uhuru - still he did not really mind Uhuru but Raila. UDF was based on belief that Kenya was done with Gema PORK. Now today - Uhuru is not senile and is not imposing anyone. Ruto and Raila are both aliens - he merely smashed Kiunjuri, Waititu, Gachaguas and anyone pro-Ruto - as he props PK. He has pushed BBI, edged Ruto to GoK-Jubilee periphery, persecuted Cherargeis, Sudi inciters - orchestrated 1M1S. Now Gema MPs are meeting to decide direction - lead by Moses Kuria and Kibicho - you think they are meeting to endorse Ruto? They will endorse their own - to negotiate with non-Gema. We already know who Uhuru clique prefer even in the 11th hour looting and AOBs. Ruto is so deeply loathed and untrusted by this lot it astounding - after all the hardwork and promises - they will rather hand over to Raila by a mile.

[Pajero]

Honestly,you still believe Mobutu has jubilee,you need to have your head recalibrated

[Nefertiti]

Honestly,you still believe Mobutu has jubilee,you need to have your head recalibrated

Pundit means Mobutu has the Jubilee "laity" - hoi polloi - while Uhuru only has the certificate and offices. One weekend they will rebrand one of the reserved parties at Bomas - and all & sundry will board safina. It a perfect script full of intelligent precautions- why could anything possibly go wrong? Because Mobutu has ground - a new animal complete with a groundmeter - another mythical beast like the legacy they are more concerned with than Uhuru himself. For 2 years they threatened MAD - which never came as all redlines shifted. Uhuru was a system and Kibicho and Jezebel were responsible for all the mischief. That Uhuru would just sign MOU - hand over the sword to Ruto - and wait for 50%. Haha - if that not delusion then it true 98% idiots are right here.

[RV Pundit]

Jubilee is a national party - there are few kieweleke from mostly central province that got intimidated or bribed by Harambee house - but are facing hostile winds from the ground.

Otherwise Jubilee is intact.

Gema have to make a decision.
1) Go it alone - Pajero option - post-election coalition
2) Make a pre-election coalition with either Raila or Ruto
3) They pick a stooge like Matiangi or Madvd - and back - this UDF - Prof Wanjohi brainless idea from JKUAT
4) Most likely to happen - GEMA splinters into many camps without a clear leader - as everyone tries their own ideas.

Let examine

1) Pajero Option:

If they go it alone - they have to find a credible leader who can sell beyond GEMA - they have NONE. Kibaki has run previously as GEMA only candidate. He scored 33% in 1997. He run in 2007 as mostly GEMA but got lots of votes in Bukusu, Ukambani, Gusii, Somali and even coast. And all that came to 43% with lots of rigging.

Now that was a credible Kibaki. Who in GEMA right now can even unite GEMA votes. NOBODY. They are all dwarfs. The Kikuyu supremacist were hoping Uhuru will continue somehow but now they will stuck.

Now the best case scenario for Pajero option. They play for 2nd round. They hope their candidate become no 2 and Raila backs them in 2nd round contest against Ruto.

United GEMA candidate will score about 25% - but with Ruto running - with DPORK from GEMA like Kiunjuri - that becomes less than 20% - so they compete with Raila for No 2.

Pretty dicey. Btw upstart GEMA and Raila - I think Raila will become no 3 or 4.

2) They choose btw Raila and Ruto - and enter a pre-election.

It's no brainer. They will pick Ruto. They fear Raila the most. Raila has the biggest axe to grind with them. With Ruto - things are still pretty much okay. They can just say sorry - it was a misunderstanding - and Jubilee will be intact that afernoon.

4) They choose Matiangi or MaDVD or Kalonzo.

They figure out they don't want either Raila or Ruto - and go for a new person.

They try to shore 25% to make it 35% - well this could get them 2nd round contest.

And then they hope Raila will back them in 2nd round.

Assumption: Ruto will be the guy to beat and is the front runner - as shown by all opinion polls and common sense so far.

Now after Raila is dumped by GEMA - he becomes DEAD AS DODOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO. He is now selling snake oil that Uhuru has agreed to back him in BBI and handshake.

Once it clear - there is no such deal - he will not even get all the Luo votes.

It will be a desperate run ending with 7-10%.

Pundit means Mobutu has the Jubilee "laity" - hoi polloi - while Uhuru only has the certificate and offices. One weekend they will rebrand one of the reserved parties at Bomas - and all & sundry will board safina. Because Mobutu has ground - a new animal complete with a groundmeter - another mythical beast like the legacy they are more concerned with than Uhuru himself. For 2 years they threatened MAD - which never came as all redlines shifted. Uhuru was a system and Kibicho and Jezebel were responsible for all the mischief. That Uhuru would just sign MOU - hand over the sword to Ruto - and wait for 50%. Haha - if that not delusion then it true 98% idiots are right here.

[RV Pundit]

Who has Jubilee? Raila? or Uhuru

Honestly,you still believe Mobutu has jubilee,you need to have your head recalibrated

[Nefertiti]

When are Jubilee elections - let alone the primaries?

Jubilee is a national party - there are few kieweleke from mostly central province that got intimidated or bribed by Harambee house - but are facing hostile crowd.

Otherwise Jubilee is intact.

Gema have to make a decision.
1) Go it alone - Pajero option - post-election coalition
2) Make a pre-election coalition with either Raila or Ruto
3) They pick a stooge like Matiangi or Madvd - and back - this UDF - Prof Wanjohi brainless idea from JKUAT

Let examine

1) Pajero Option:

If they go it alone - they have to find a credible leader who can sell beyond GEMA - they have NONE. Kibaki has run previously as GEMA only candidate. He scored 33% in 1997. He run in 2007 as mostly GEMA but got lots of votes in Bukusu, Ukambani, Gusii, Somali and even coast. And all that came to 43% with lots of rigging.

Now that was a credible Kibaki. Who in GEMA right now can even unite GEMA votes. NOBODY. They are all dwarfs. The Kikuyu supremacist were hoping Uhuru will continue somehow but now they will stuck.

Now the best case scenario for Pajero option. They play for 2nd round. They hope their candidate become no 2 and Raila backs them in 2nd round contest against Ruto.

United GEMA candidate will score about 25% - but with Ruto running - with DPORK from GEMA like Kiunjuri - that becomes less than 20% - so they compete with Raila for No 2.

Pretty dicey.

2) They choose btw Raila and Ruto - and enter a pre-election.

It's no brainer. They will pick Ruto. They fear Raila the most. Raila has the biggest axe to grind with them. With Ruto - things are still pretty much okay. They can just say sorry - it was a misunderstanding - and Jubilee will be intact that afernoon.

4) They choose Matiangi or MaDVD or Kalonzo.

They figure out they don't want either Raila or Ruto - and go for a new person.

They try to shore 25% to make it 35% - well this could get them 2nd round contest.

And then they hope Raila will back them in 2nd round.

Assumption: Ruto will be the guy to beat and is the front runner - as shown by all opinion polls and common sense so far.

Pundit means Mobutu has the Jubilee "laity" - hoi polloi - while Uhuru only has the certificate and offices. One weekend they will rebrand one of the reserved parties at Bomas - and all & sundry will board safina. Because Mobutu has ground - a new animal complete with a groundmeter - another mythical beast like the legacy they are more concerned with than Uhuru himself. For 2 years they threatened MAD - which never came as all redlines shifted. Uhuru was a system and Kibicho and Jezebel were responsible for all the mischief. That Uhuru would just sign MOU - hand over the sword to Ruto - and wait for 50%. Haha - if that not delusion then it true 98% idiots are right here.

[RV Pundit]

Jubilee elections were only relevant for lower ranks otherwise there has never been a question on who next leader is. Nobody is contesting against Ruto for top seat.

As of now - unless GEMA elite save Jubilee - it's dead.

Ruto will form his own party - and merge with Kiunjuri - and others - to create another Jubilee Asili - Hustlers Nation or something like that.

Ultimately Hustler Nation is going to be the slogan - it resonating and has potential to unite the poor against the rich.

When are Jubilee elections - let alone the primaries?

[Nefertiti]

That option 2 pre-election deal is loading. GEMA are not stupid as you imagine to go for losing option. They are already meeting to formalize Uhuru choice PK who will deal with Raila. Ruto is the worse option - it start from weak point of PEV threats - you reward such with absolute No to mark the redline. You fail to resolve this logic by claiming Uhuru is a system or bewitched - ohoo he wants to loot in peace - instead of asking yourself why he has leaned to old Kenyatta nemesis Odinga.

[RV Pundit]

Raila-PK that is the most improbable but personally if GEMA can get over their fear of Raila - well we should elect the old dude. I think you understimate the fear and loathing of Raila in GEMA. Your make me question your sanity.

Raila is still waiting to be taken to central - 3yrs from handshake. The man is anathema in GEMA. In fact the only reason Uhuru has not TKOed Ruto from GEMA is the overbearing shadow of Raila...otherwise it's not for the lack of trying...bribes, intimidation, cajoling, insults..name it.

But every market has their own mad man or woman.

Uhuru I explained several times is using Raila for two purposes
1) Pacify NASA from going to the streets and causing chaos
2) Move Ruto cheese from 50-50 table. He knows unlike Raila who can be fooled with motorcade  and symbols of power - Ruto understand REAL POWER.

Ultimately Uhuru is worried about NOW - governing. You're worried about the future - gaining power.

That option 2 pre-election deal is loading. GEMA are not stupid as you imagine to go for losing option. They are already meeting to formalize Uhuru choice PK who will deal with Raila. Ruto is the worse option - it start from weak point of PEV threats - you reward such with absolute No to mark the redline. You fail to resolve this logic by claiming Uhuru is a system or bewitched - ohoo he wants to loot in peace - instead of asking yourself why he has leaned to old Kenyatta nemesis Odinga.