Many A Times Robina Got it Wrong

[Nowayhaha]

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The Euphoria in 2002 emerged after Raila stated Kibaki Tosha. So it is early days to rule out a repeat or something close. Robina, Wananchi love unity or the appearance of it. Ruto and Uhuru benefitted from the same in 2013.

Let's be objective:

1. in 2013 Mudavadi scored 400K votes around the country. He was roundly beaten in Western by Raila  - his home region. He just managed to hang on to his native county of Vihiga by a measly 10K votes - all in part because Raila refused / failed to campaign in Vihiga or send his Maragoli wife - something that would have wiped out Mudavadi.

2. The votes he scored would most likely have gone to Raila considering Uhuru - for all the Lusaka's and Musikari Kombos - scored a shameful 66K votes in ALL of Western Province!

3. Had the Mudavadi votes gone to Raila, we would have at least had a runoff. Had Mudavadi joined CORD we would have probably blocked the 66K votes from going to Uhuru and earned a few more in RV and again probably forced a runoff in which Uhuru was bound to lose badly!

Pundit has told us that Jubilee has kept its 2013 votes intact (though that is turning out to be untrue). He added that all Jubilee needs is to hold on to its constituency and add a few thousands. He has been revising the % he expects Jubilee to obtain from 70% to 53%.

If Isaac has left with even 66,000 votes (which is possible considering his appeal in South Rift) he basically undermines the Punditry of Pundit. Jubilee as of now has a deficit of votes from the last election which brings it under 50%.

Jubilee was aiming to get votes in Kisii and Nyamira and poured unlimited funds to get one of the governors to defect. They partially succeeded with Kisii Deputy Governor and a few MPs. However the hostility on the ground and the famous hasira ya Mkisii forced all of them to eat their puke and not only leave but denounce Jubilee. They are left with the Nyachae Family which we are satisfied with since it is the most unpopular family in Kisii at the moment. There is Christ Obure - an old man - who when faced with threats of imprisonment for AngloLeasing approached the party and said he was too old for prison. He is running a lacklustre campaign while helping ODM candidates. It is no secret he wants to avoid jail. So no votes in Kisii.

Lusaka just got a direct ticket from Jubilee along with a few MCAs. The reason is that Bungoma is a straight fight between FORD K and ODM. Nobody wanted to contest against Lusaka because he is going home. No votes in Western and the slogan is #JubileeTawe (Not Jubilee or Never Jubilee)

COAST: I think this time Jubilee will be totally wiped out in all the counties. Shah Baal has zero chance. He got Kamba votes in 2013 for being in Wiper. Those votes will partially go to Joho and whoever WDP nominates. However all will vote for NASA candidate for president.

Jubilee is out of Turkana, thanks to Uhuru's greedy memo to parliament cutting Turkana share from a measly 10% to a piddling 5%!!! Uhuru is a gift that keeps giving NASA.

No votes in Wajir, Garissa and now Marsabit is gravitating to NASA. The rigging of primaries over there is another gift to NASA. We paid a similar price in Migori so we know not to play games.

Frankly I need to know where Jubilee will get these votes!

Uhuru's only hope is to retake the election system and use it to rig. But we already know unlike 2013.

Details, details. Euphoria...

2002 was a vote against Moi's Project Uhuru. It was the reason for the "mashetani" charade that Uhuruto put up in 2012. To avoid being labeled a Kibaki project.

2013 Hague was the issue that drove record turnout in RV and Gema. This and the registration "tyranny of numbers" that caught CORD napping.

2017 There is nothing to drive the turnout. This lack of Hague euphoria and registration turnout advantage has seen Jubilee lose its edge. Incumbency is a double-edged sword: There is cash and other resources to campaign, organize, buy MPs, rig opinion polls, etc. The con is being blamed for drought, corruption, insecurity, etc and the incumbent cannot whine about imaginary grievances like Mau evictions. The opposition plays underdog poking holes in the big, bad, unaccountable State. We see Ruto struggling to explain to poor, jobless, starving folks how Jubilee has built railway in Nairobi. Ooh tumeunganisha stima... Who cares!

My take: Jubilee has kept its base while NASA rounds up Western. But Jubilee has lost both in voter registration and the messaging. Raila is igniting the spark with "NASA Pentagon". Without ballot stuffing Uhuru's goose may be cooked.

I am waiting to see how Pundit's MOAS look with new IEBC numbers.

[Nowayhaha]

Ok. We are also open to new ideas on GEMA succession now that my boy PK is toast. Is it possible Waiguru is next DPORK?

Will ran MOAS once IEBC and Kpmg release the list.Based on 2013 this roughly translate to 48% versus 52%.NASA is cord plus mAdvd minus wamalwa &Lusaka plus Isaac.Jubilee add pk and Martha votes plus incumbency.

[Nowayhaha]

What happened to 56% (200/350)?

It will split 50-50 in Parliament just like PORK. The best we can have is PORK without MP majority so appointments can reflect the face of Kenya.

Jubilee party are gonna win close to 200mps of the 290 elected Mps...leaving NASA with about 90. I don't even know how NASA think they can win elections when they are clearly going to be hammered in parliament.

[Nowayhaha]

My take is that this is tight. Jubilee has lost tyranny it had in 2013 when they scored 50.08% and surprisingly have narrowed down to 2 principals. They think PK's and Karua's cosmopolitan constituency is bankable... while Raila has pulled in 2 more principals to up his chances.

I think Jubilee is overconfident and COMPLACENT. No Ocampo to scare them now. If Kenya joins the right side of history by sending this duo packing it will be a big win for our democracy. There is nothing transformational Uhuru has done that would make me want Ruto as next PORK. Roads, rails, blah. C plain.

A Jubilee loss would scuttle Ruto's game and open the way for performers like Dr Mutua, etc. Tribal MOUs are bad for democracy.

[Nefertiti]

Says the man without a record. "Noway" means you're a Omtata or Miguna serial protestor.

[Nowayhaha]

Says the man without a record. "Noway" means you're a Omtata or Miguna serial protestor.

Been on this blogosphere for more than 20 years , My records are all over and pretty good and accurate unlike yours

[Nowayhaha]

To run as an independent. He says due to public demand after consulting family. This after conceding nicely and wishing the rival well. From the man who once asked Ruto why he thought Kikuyu votes were locked in TransNational Bank and deposited in a safe in Eldie to be withdrawn in 2022 with interest. Which side will the oathers take?

Waititu has a Mutua-like unassailable lead. Kabogo is going nowhere. His deep pockets are very good for ensuring 95% voter turnout.

[Nowayhaha]

Dr Mutua is working to supplant Wiper. Kalonzo may have nothing to offer Jubilee post-2017... and may have to act as advisor or elder like the likes of Kombo.

[Nowayhaha]

Yup. Ruto never had a Western strategy besides dishing out cash. Impose Wamalwa as Nairobi Governor...no takers. Revive Panpaper. Dungle Lusaka as Jubilee Chairman Total fumble.

[Nowayhaha]

Tribalism was cemented in 2007, 2013 and 2017 will just be crowning it as the only standard. One guy called Politicalmaniac who used to post in Jukwaa said this in 2007 " the fate of Kenya rests with Kikuyus and they have the destiny of the country on their hands" I have rephrased his comment. due to Tribalism you can see how hard it is to beat GEMA and Kalenjins.

What would motivate someone from Pokomo, Giriama, or other small communities at coast to get out to vote. They know if they vote for NASA or Jubilee they will still be ignored.

Think how tough it must be from a community like Aembu. They must lay low and make alliance with whichever group that will be in power because without it they will be victimized and lose the little they have.

MOAS really brings it home. I trust Pundit numbers as they have consistently held up. Plus due to nature of his work he has a better understanding Kenya demographics that most of us.

Imagine if Uhuru lost: he retires and Ruto is left with a mammoth Jubilee that crumbles like a balloon. He goes back to the drawing board, minus the patronage, suddenly RV and GEMA blocks are up for grabs. In such a disruption, tribalism losens its iron grip on Kenya. There has been no president from out of Kikuyu and Kalenjin. We need that.

[Nowayhaha]

Kiraitu faces NASA chants in Igembe... don't be surprised to see one or two NASA MPs, PNU governor while Jubilee gets 99% PORK votes.

[Nowayhaha]

Despite backing a Kikuyu, Ruto is unpopular enough in Meru for people to be labeled his project.

[Nowayhaha]

ODM�s Steve Mbogo is headed for a major victory in the Starehe parliamentary seat.

According to a new opinion poll released by a local media house, Mbogo would emerge victorious in the August 8 polls with 63% followed by Jubilee candidate Charles Njagua Kanyi who will garner 24% and then activist Boniface Mwangi of Ukweli Party comes a distant third with 13%.

https://www.kenya-today.com/politics/odm-steve-mbogo-tops-starehe-constituency-opinion-polls-defeat-jaguar-boniface-mwangi-big-margin

Steve is herculean rags-to-riches guy... that inspires many people especially the youth. And not a drug dealer  He needs to polish his story to be more coherent. He's all over about Fly540, Faulu Bank, hotels, etc. But basically I see rise of this young leaders like Mbogo and Sonko as freedom dividend where the best get to lead, as empty talkers fall by the wayside. Poor pampered Jaguar might have to continue doing music abit longer.

[Nefertiti]

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[Nefertiti]

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Date Registered: May 27, 2020, 06:58:45 PMLocal Time:September 16, 2020, 06:40:05 AMLast Active: Today at 06:21:03 AM