Robina - this is good for you as you learn politricks

[Nefertiti]

Mboss this is not MOAS - it depends how it is handled. Kenya you had a heads-up unlike Europe and here in US. First death last week means no real old infections... unless everyone is immune. Mwafrika nywele ngumu has big advantage healthwise - which Uhuru will milk as great leadership. It depends on chance more than preparedness - I told you the mitigating factors - else you can't explain why the deaths have been minimal in Sub Sahara. Keep the partial lockdown in place and beg Xi and IMF for aid pronto. It not rocket science but life and death - don't conflate risk with complexity - the typical bimbo that you are.

You're thick-headed - if Europe cannot handle this - Kenya that has 150 ICUS - with about 5 COVID-19 ready. Just wait for many burials. Uhuru will be blamed for allowing Chinese and foreigners to bring death.

If you see everyone running - run too. When deal is too good - think twice.

They are "hiding" because they have no choice. No source of info and it de facto illegal to publish misleading news.

Uhuru and Kagwe have a blank slate - they can turn into heroes or villains depending on the outcome. If folks die in 000's ala Europe - then they are buried in the rubble. They nick it in the bud - with only few dozen dead - they get a crown.

Yattani and crew should be working the phone all hours now seeking aid in cash, ventilators, chloroquine, name it.

Its you who brought politics. Mutahi has the worst job - this is not good news. Even Matiangi has run from it. Ruto is hiding. Raila is hiding.

Corpses will pop up starting next week. Don't be too sure about the political outcome.

[RV Pundit]

Africa has least travelled people - you can check the planes on the sky on free apps - that bought it time - but now - the numbers are rising - Africans have nearly zero health care system - I think the deaths are coming. This is not easy win thing.  We might be seeing another 4-6 months.  If Italy is crying - what about Kenya.

You're just desperate becoz of politics.

Gov is claiming about 5000 - by mid April - that I think is a joke - it will be 50-100K.

Mboss this is not MOAS - it depends how it is handled. Kenya you had a heads-up unlike Europe and here in US. First death last week means no real old infections... unless everyone is immune. Mwafrika nywele ngumu has big advantage healthwise - which Uhuru will milk as great leadership. It depends on chance more than preparedness - I told you the mitigating factors - else you can't explain why the deaths have been minimal in Sub Sahara. Keep the partial lockdown in place and beg Xi and IMF for aid pronto. It not rocket science but life and death - don't conflate risk with complexity - the typical bimbo that you are.

[Nefertiti]

An outbreak US or Italy- style would sink Kenya. I am betting there won't be one because schools, churches, parties were curtailed and now curfews in good time. Restrictions started 2 weeks ago - death occured a week ago - meaning few or just the 50 sick had been infected by the time GoK swang into action.

Now - as GoK tightens the noose - the biggest danger is public disorder as poor folks defy curfew or lockdown to look for food. That should be Uhuru no 1 focus - how to sustain the restrictions for the urban poor. Because he cannot manufacture ICUs or ventilators - lockdown and quarantine are his big levers.

It depends on ACTIONS - massive deaths can be avoided. The politics is likely to follow the outcome. Uhuru and Kagwe will be big heroes or villains soon. Kiunjuri and Ruto fate depends on the former duo's performance.

Africa has least travelled people - you can check the planes on the sky on free apps - that bought it time - but now - the numbers are rising - Africans have nearly zero health care system - I think the deaths are coming. This is not easy win thing.  We might be seeing another 4-6 months.  If Italy is crying - what about Kenya.

You're just desperate becoz of politics.

Gov is claiming about 5000 - by mid April - that I think is a joke - it will be 50-100K.

[RV Pundit]

The tiny middle class are adhering to it..but only for few weeks..before the prospect of losing jobs..forces them to join lower class...in opening their side hustles. Only GOD and maybe climate will help us...but we are entering our winter..long rain seasons start now till Sept.Kenya flu seasons is about to start as it ends in Europe. The omens are bad. Watu watakufa. ICUs hakuna..10 in Nairobi hospitals..already the first death happen in ICU in AghaKhan. This is a doomsday scenario. Dont talk about rural-urban migration. I think I need to escape back to Europe soon.

An outbreak US or Italy- style would sink Kenya. I am betting there won't be one because schools, churches, parties were curtailed and now curfews in good time. Restrictions started 2 weeks ago - death occured a week ago - meaning few or just the 50 sick had been infected by the time GoK swang into action.

Now - as GoK tightens the noose - the biggest danger is public disorder as poor folks defy curfew or lockdown to look for food. That should be Uhuru no 1 focus - how to sustain the restrictions for the urban poor. Because he cannot manufacture ICUs or ventilators - lockdown and quarantine are his big levers.

It depends on ACTIONS - massive deaths can be avoided. The politics is likely to follow the outcome. Uhuru and Kagwe will be big heroes or villains soon. Kiunjuri and Ruto fate depends on the former duo's performance.

Africa has least travelled people - you can check the planes on the sky on free apps - that bought it time - but now - the numbers are rising - Africans have nearly zero health care system - I think the deaths are coming. This is not easy win thing.  We might be seeing another 4-6 months.  If Italy is crying - what about Kenya.

You're just desperate becoz of politics.

Gov is claiming about 5000 - by mid April - that I think is a joke - it will be 50-100K.

[Nefertiti]

You are a real gloomster - like Dr Doom you demonized for years. Prompt action especially FOOD for poor folks in towns can make a big difference. I think if you have door-to-door food like Rwanda - you can firmly enforce lockdown and noone will riot. Noone wants to die if they can get fed.

Lazy Uhuru need good advice about now. And not from Ruto the Regular Joe or Raila.

[Garliv]

Most vulnerable in Kenya are those diabetics, cancer, HIV/AIDS (though some hiv drugs are said to help) TB and Pneumonia. And of course those Wazees approaching 70s, 80s and 90s. Hard  to estimate their percentage given that most  Kenya's statistics have huge error margin. But even among them, i do not expect their deaths to be not more than 2% for those who will be "hit hard..." yaani wenye watawezwa.

Then Kagwe CS can keep on announcing the daily tally but the question that need to be investigated is not. That is, what is the health status of those who are positive? How many need hospitalization? What medicine/therapy are they being given and what are their chances? They are so many unknowns here.

Kagwe as some kind of Hero of BBI/Uhuru/Raila grouping is just assuming too much. Politically he is not anywhere. The visibility is giving him platform to show what's he's made of. And it depends on how this Coronavirus turns out.
More importantly it looks like the government wants to do a total lockdown. Chiefs and provincial administration have been collecting data on ration to be provided per location. This will be bad news. Very bad news. Corona or no Corona total lockdown will almost immediately lead to civil disobedience. Right now economic hardships are setting in even to "middle class" who are normally one paycheck away to financial collapse. Few more days and people will rebel. Nairobi gangs will get worse and crime will soar.
That's when Huslter's silence will be seen as golden.

Hard choices ahead.

They are "hiding" because they have no choice. No source of info and it de facto illegal to publish misleading news.

Uhuru and Kagwe have a blank slate - they can turn into heroes or villains depending on the outcome. If folks die in 000's ala Europe - then they are buried in the rubble. They nick it in the bud - with only few dozen dead - they get a crown.

Yattani and crew should be working the phone all hours now seeking aid in cash, ventilators, chloroquine, name it.

Its you who brought politics. Mutahi has the worst job - this is not good news. Even Matiangi has run from it. Ruto is hiding. Raila is hiding.

Corpses will pop up starting next week. Don't be too sure about the political outcome.

[Nefertiti]

Noone in upcountry or Lavington needs food rations - but urban poor (Eastlands, etc) and slums in most towns. Lavington or Karen can stock up Weetabix and frozen beef for months. I don't imagine people are simply indisciplined or disobedient but are too broke to stay home. Makanga, hawkers, mjengo, etc live hand to mouth. Give them biweekly rations and lock down the country... BAN cars and matatu on the roads. A % of the infected will definitely die so stop the infections.

So I think Uhuru should be scraping and begging for food money right now. This BIG 0 AGENDA formally excuse him from election promises or legacy crap. He got some millions $$ recently from IMF if am not wrong. Your lockdown 411 is good news.

Kagwe has been Nyeri MP and CS under Kibaki, then senator before this. The recent disproportionate tribal Kikuyu appointments to GoK are very political to assuage Mt Kenya. Corona is a double-edged sword for Kagwe and Uhuru - and by extension for Kiunjuri and Ruto.

Most vulnerable in Kenya are those diabetics, cancer, HIV/AIDS (though some hiv drugs are said to help) TB and Pneumonia. And of course those Wazees approaching 70s, 80s and 90s. Hard  to estimate their percentage given that most  Kenya's statistics have huge error margin. But even among them, i do not expect their deaths to be not more than 2% for those who will be "hit hard..." yaani wenye watawezwa.

Then Kagwe CS can keep on announcing the daily tally but the question that need to be investigated is not. That is, what is the health status of those who are positive? How many need hospitalization? What medicine/therapy are they being given and what are their chances? They are so many unknowns here.

Kagwe as some kind of Hero of BBI/Uhuru/Raila grouping is just assuming too much. Politically he is not anywhere. The visibility is giving him platform to show what's he's made of. And it depends on how this Coronavirus turns out.
More importantly it looks like the government wants to do a total lockdown. Chiefs and provincial administration have been collecting data on ration to be provided per location. This will be bad news. Very bad news. Corona or no Corona total lockdown will almost immediately lead to civil disobedience. Right now economic hardships are setting in even to "middle class" who are normally one paycheck away to financial collapse. Few more days and people will rebel. Nairobi gangs will get worse and crime will soar.
That's when Huslter's silence will be seen as golden.

Hard choices ahead.

[Nefertiti]

The greatest fear for Kenyans who live from hand to mouth
https://www.nation.co.ke/news/Covid-19-greatest-fear-Kenyans-who-live-from-hand-to-mouth/1056-5509430-84ak5wz/index.html