Mt kenya (central) propaganda that they deserve more constituencies is weird.

[KenyanPlato]

This propoganda doesn't event warrant a discussion. Om kikuyu population i think majority of it has shifted to urban areas and maa land e.g. kajiado. Very few under  kikuyus under age of 50 are left in the deep rural areas. So i can see a serious decline in numbers in most rural constituencies.. Places like kiambu county has just probably doubled in population and most of this population growth is from non kikuyus ..there is also a lot shift of population from riftvalley to kiambu and kajiado county

[RV Pundit]

As of 2007 - that is 2yrs before census - I think central votes were 1.8-2m. In 2017 (10yrs later) - the figure had risen to nearly 3m - which is probable if you imagine at least addition of 100k adults every year - and less mortality.  It appears central population has already or are in middle of a demographic transitions - where they are more adults than kids. Should be good for their economy - however we need jobs to match the rising adult population.

There is some top up same as Homabay or Kericho. Not unique to Central. Your 2009 math comes to 1.8-2m kids and 2.4-2.6m adults - out of 4.4m total. So you have a rough 2.5m adults but 3m voters. The 0.5m gap is reasonable due to diaspora in Nairobi that vote in Central.

[RV Pundit]

which is why when BBI propose 40% - you know somebody is taking someone for a ride. That 15% was arrived after serious debate involving treasury mandrains in Naivasha.

Current constitution doesn't need much changes - just a few tweaks.

Already we took treasury budget making role and gave it to assembly - it's them to determine the % - after considering all factors.

I say progressive devolution of revenues and functions - not the stroke of a pen. Devolution is a complex process like democracy or marginalized ASALs or gender parity or any public or state affair. MPs burn the midnight oil because national functions are so many. Obviously you can't devolve money without functions - nor functions without capacity - so you must be progressive. Because you can't alter katiba every few years due to politics - it is better to codify phased devolution - with some mechanism as i propose. Start at maybe 25% in 5 years. Then 30% - based on objective assessment.

Democracy took 50 years - devolution is barely 10 yo. hk's full majimbo is a separate animal. This crawilng baby needs to walk next - before it can run.

All good except counties getting 40% is a stretch.So I hear people talking about 40% of audited last year results and I know anyone who has done budgeting or been to our treasury is probably laughing. It's just not possible. Our parliament assign finances..and they normally settle on that figure...after examining everything.

Say our budget is 25 billion dollars. Debt repayment will take 1/3 of that. So what do you remain is really what KRA collects - about 20B dollars (ordinary taxes + AIA).  Now give teachers/education sector 3-4B. You remain with 15B. Give security Plus defence - another 2-3B dollars?. You're already around 10B.

Now some people lie to themselves that they can get 40% of 20B (total revenues)- 800B - from 300B (that parliament spend sleepless nights balancing) without loading of more functions.

Some jokes are not serious. Uhuru wherever he is must be laughing.

By stroke of a pen - counties will get minimum of 800B kshs - with same functions - heck with health even taken back from them and given to national gov.

Hiyo bhangi lazima ni mbichi. Only way counties can get 40% is for them to take education off national gov.