Ruto cannot win central. He needs to forget

[KenyanPlato]

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He has no credible base that can take on Uhuru network. He will waste his resources and time that can be spent elsewhere. The t8cket for ruto is to seek a western Alliance and coast one. Right now ruto is just being used like an ATM. He only has not more than 5 loyal mps. The rest are just taking his funding and quitting at their convenience. If moi couldn't buy kikuyus i doubt ruto can. He is just opening himself to sabotage and uncessary campaigning too early in the game

[Nefertiti]

Ruto needs to stop hallucinating and focus on fighting Raila in pwani. For referendum he is done - can't beat Raila + GEMA coalition. With new Exec structure 2022 will be up in the air.. anybody can muster a winning coalition. Hustler may have to settle for Raila or Uhuru's DPM - he's certified KYM material.

[RV Pundit]

There is a lot those bought Mps can do btw now and 2022. Ruto is DPORK - he is powerful and untouchable because he controls parliament. He also controls half the gov. Now when it come to 2022 - Ruto has to navigate the referendum and ensure it become stillborn. The first step is to block in via judiciary. If that fails, block at MCA level (they need 24 county assemblies). Then next is to stop it parliament. Then have it go through a referendum of collecting and validating signatures.

Uhuru has been shadow boxing Ruto. If he comes directly - Ruto will also go directly. The idea is here is to get Kiunjuri or Speaker from Embu or GEMA person who is not ready to serve under Uhuru forever - and want to take the war on Kenyattas. I think Kiunjuri has the conjones to do that.

I believe referendum cannot go through even MCA now. Ruto has iron grip on 14 RV counties - he has iron grip on another 6 counties of pastoralal communities. That is already 20 counties. He only need to win 4 counties ( He has 4 to pick from Coast), maybe 1 or 2 in Western that can sway and maybe 1 or 3 in Eastern (Embu, Meru, Tharaka), and even 1 or 2 in Central that can go rogue.

[RV Pundit]

Uhuru is living in borrowed times. He is becoming lame duck every minute. The issues is are other GEMA leaders eying DPORK just going to sit around and let Kenyattas rule them forever. I don't think so. I think we are just about to see open rebellion. Uhuru cannot come directly and ask for term extension. He knows kenyans will reject such a proposal. He wants to use panya route - pretend katiba change - is to secure gema interest in 50yrs - while all it boils down is him extending his rule. That I think is red line in kenya. People are waiting to hear him say that so they can revolt. We cannot have another life president.

As for money - it's not Ruto or Moi's money - it's kenya stolen loot . At Ruto or Uhuru career points - having money in banks means nothing -  power is everything. Just like Trump got tired with making money.

He has no credible base that can take on Uhuru network. He will waste his resources and time that can be spent elsewhere. The t8cket for ruto is to seek a western Alliance and coast one. Right now ruto is just being used like an ATM. He only has not more than 5 loyal mps. The rest are just taking his funding and quitting at their convenience. If moi couldn't buy kikuyus i doubt ruto can. He is just opening himself to sabotage and uncessary campaigning too early in the game

[Nefertiti]

Of course it is a lie that Ruto controls Parliament. He has Duale, Murkomen and Lusaka but not the numbers.

Uhuru has gone for Ruto directly. Given his job to Matiang'i, ignored 50-50, sent his parrots to hurl insults all over, etc. Perhaps you can clarify what "directly" means to you? What moves would you consider direct?

Referendum.. Ruto does not have the numbers in Parliament, nor does he control majority of the counties. Counties you count under his column can also go rogue not just the reverse. I don't see Kamba or Luhya or Mijikenda counties going against "inclusion", do you?

There is a lot those bought Mps can do btw now and 2022. Ruto is DPORK - he is powerful and untouchable because he controls parliament. He also controls half the gov. Now when it come to 2022 - Ruto has to navigate the referendum and ensure it become stillborn. The first step is to block in via judiciary. If that fails, block at MCA level (they need 24 county assemblies). Then next is to stop it parliament. Then have it go through a referendum of collecting and validating signatures.

Uhuru has been shadow boxing Ruto. If he comes directly - Ruto will also go directly. The idea is here is to get Kiunjuri or Speaker from Embu or GEMA person who is not ready to serve under Uhuru forever - and want to take the war on Kenyattas. I think Kiunjuri has the conjones to do that.

I believe referendum cannot go through even MCA now. Ruto has iron grip on 14 RV counties - he has iron grip on another 6 counties of pastoralal communities. That is already 20 counties. He only need to win 4 counties ( He has 4 to pick from Coast), maybe 1 or 2 in Western that can sway and maybe 1 or 3 in Eastern (Embu, Meru, Tharaka), and even 1 or 2 in Central that can go rogue.

[Kichwa]

At least you have come to the reality that the rift between Ouru and Ruto is real. That is progress. You have come a long way. You still have some distance to cover and catch up with the political reality.

Uhuru is living in borrowed times. He is becoming lame duck every minute. The issues is are other GEMA leaders eying DPORK just going to sit around and let Kenyattas rule them forever. I don't think so. I think we are just about to see open rebellion. Uhuru cannot come directly and ask for term extension. He knows kenyans will reject such a proposal. He wants to use panya route - pretend katiba change - is to secure gema interest in 50yrs - while all it boils down is him extending his rule. That I think is red line in kenya. People are waiting to hear him say that so they can revolt. We cannot have another life president.

As for money - it's not Ruto or Moi's money - it's kenya stolen loot . At Ruto or Uhuru career points - having money in banks means nothing -  power is everything. Just like Trump got tired with making money.

He has no credible base that can take on Uhuru network. He will waste his resources and time that can be spent elsewhere. The t8cket for ruto is to seek a western Alliance and coast one. Right now ruto is just being used like an ATM. He only has not more than 5 loyal mps. The rest are just taking his funding and quitting at their convenience. If moi couldn't buy kikuyus i doubt ruto can. He is just opening himself to sabotage and uncessary campaigning too early in the game