I believe the likelihood of post-election violence is closely related to:
1) How tight the final presidential & gubernatorial results are
2) Anything that suggests that polls could have been rigged
3) Any kind of procedural issue for the IEBC that may have disenfranchised a lot of voters
4) If NASA game-plan include instigating violence.
What Kenya will do to avoid violence
1) Ensure presidential & gubernatorial results have a clear winner. I expect Uhuru to win by about 1M votes.
2) IEBC & GOK need to be as transparent as possible. The systems hopefully will work. Observers & Media will be critical here.
3) Let hope we don't have big screw ups from IEBC - like misplaced or misprinted names or missing names in register or malfunctioning devices.
4) Police should just be equally prepared to counter and swiftly end any violence from NASA.