If Jubilee are planning to rig - they would target certain places.

[RV Pundit]

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Jubilee cannot rig in NASA strongholds - Nyanza, Western, Ukambani.
It cannot also rig in battlegrounds like Gusii, Nairobi and Coast.
It can of course rig in their strongholds - by inflating turn out - but BVR will cure this.

If I were a Jubilee Rigging Strategist (Omollo has given me the hacking job) I would target areas where lights are off. It's too remote. There is no network (even Safaricom). It's insecure. It's black hole.

According to IEBC - about 22 percent of the country has no 3G network - meaning electronic transmission won't happen.BVR can also be made to fail because those places don't have electricity and probably donkeys & camels are the best means of transportation anyway.

If you recall why IEBC wanted manual voting (Not Jubilee) - because there exist polling station in places where network is only available in some high place like the tallest tree or the nearest mountain.Those are the areas where anything can go.

Jubilee have solid 45% of the national vote(GEMA+Kalenjin). Their worse case scenario is they get very little or no votes elsewhere. So they just need top up of 800K votes. Where do top-up - 22% of the country without 3G network - IEBC & Safaricom have been working to reduce that number - but still it very significant.

But you see NASA just being all over the map and doubting every thing IEBC does -  in stead of focusing on those 22% of the country where electronic transmission aint happening - and manual voting will be used.

"Curiously" UhuRuto are visiting these remote area last - Lamu, Tana River, Samburu, Mandera,Marsabit, Isiolo, Garissa, Wajir and Turkana - while Raila is adopting his own polling station in Bondo

[RV Pundit]

I don't think so. Of course every GoK need legitimacy so rigging has to be done intelligently. Kibaki brazen rigging meant he had to share power. I think UhuRuto are smart - I certainly don't expect they don't have plan A B C D - but certainly I don't see how they can lose this when combined their base alone is nearly 45%.

If CORD/NASA were not a bunch of fools (like our Omollo here) - they would have really studied Mandera of 2013 - whatever went down there - is what will go down again in remote places. But NASA fools will be adopting their polling station and entire village will be on look out for anyone stealing their votes in Nyalgunga - and of course nobody will do that.

Only a stupid Government in Africa will let the Opposition win. Of course Kibaki was almost willing in 2007.
Is UhuRuto so willing to be in Opposition come 9th August

[RV Pundit]

These counties with 2.5m votes is where NASA need to re-focus - if they hope to get to power this century - parts of these counties - are so remote, so insecure, so illiterate I don't see IEBC gadgets working - manual voting & transmission will have to kick in.

Lamu   Swahili 30%,Gikuyu 25%,Mijikenda   75338
Isiolo   Borana 37%,Somali,Samburu, Turkana ,Meruu & Gikuyu10%   75338
Samburu   Samburu 79%,Turkana, Gikuyu & others (21%)   82787
TanaRiver   Mijikenda 28%,Orma (25%) & warder 20%,Somali(15%)   118327
Marsabit   Gabra 28%,Borana,Rendile,Burji &others 5%   141708
TaitaTaveta   Taita 63%,Akamba,Taveta   155716
Wajir   Somali 98%,Gabra &others(2%)   162902
Garissa   Somali 80% (ogaden),Others & Akamba (20%)   163350
Mandera   Somali 98%,Gabra,others 2%   175642
WestPokot   Kalenjin 95%(Pokot),Luhya & Turkana & others 5%   180232
ElgeyoMarakwet   Kalenjin 93%,Luhya & others 5%   180664
Turkana   Turkana 94%,others & luhya 6%   191435
TharakaNithi   Meru 55%,Tharaka 40%,Mbeere & others 5%   213154
Baringo   Kalenjin 88%,Ilchamus/Njemps 8%,Gikuyu & others 5%    232558
Laikipia   Gikuyu 63%,Maasai 20%,Kalenjin 6% & others 3%   246487
Vihiga   Luhya 96% ,Luo, Kalenjin & others 4%   272409

[GeeMail]

Isn't it a wonder that Jubilee is boasting of almost 100% coverage of electricity while at the same time planningto rig from remote pkaces where there is no 3G internet coverage? Are such brazen revelations the reason Kaparo former URP leader is planning to shut down social media?

Jubilee cannot rig in NASA strongholds - Nyanza, Western, Ukambani.
It cannot also rig in battlegrounds like Gusii, Nairobi and Coast.
It can of course rig in their strongholds - by inflating turn out - but BVR will cure this.

If I were a Jubilee Rigging Strategist (Omollo has given me the hacking job) I would target areas where lights are off. It's too remote. There is no network (even Safaricom). It's insecure. It's black hole.

According to IEBC - about 22 percent of the country has no 3G network - meaning electronic transmission won't happen.BVR can also be made to fail because those places don't have electricity and probably donkeys & camels are the best means of transportation anyway.

If you recall why IEBC wanted manual voting (Not Jubilee) - because there exist polling station in places where network is only available in some high place like the tallest tree or the nearest mountain.Those are the areas where anything can go.

Jubilee have solid 45% of the national vote(GEMA+Kalenjin). Their worse case scenario is they get very little or no votes elsewhere. So they just need top up of 800K votes. Where do top-up - 22% of the country without 3G network - IEBC & Safaricom have been working to reduce that number - but still it very significant.

But you see NASA just being all over the map and doubting every thing IEBC does -  in stead of focusing on those 22% of the country where electronic transmission aint happening - and manual voting will be used.

"Curiously" UhuRuto are visiting these remote area last - Lamu, Tana River, Samburu, Mandera,Marsabit, Isiolo, Garissa, Wajir and Turkana - while Raila is adopting his own polling station in Bondo

[RV Pundit]

I am just helping Omollo by thinking a loud. I don't know what Jubilee are planning - but I spend my time - second guessing political moves. Electricity coverage is 60% and Jubilee will take it to 100%.

Isn't it a wonder that Jubilee is boasting of almost 100% coverage of electricity while at the same time planningto rig from remote pkaces where there is no 3G internet coverage? Are such brazen revelations the reason Kaparo former URP leader is planning to shut down social media?

[Globalcitizen12]

participating in elections in Africa is just nonsense. There is no way an incumbent that is determined to subvert democracy can be defeated. You are right that NASA will be skinned in these remote areas and in informal settlements where it is hard to tell the real number of voters. There is no reason you cannot establish a fake voting station in Mathare slums or kibera

[Kichwa]

That's not true and we as Kenyans must resist such statements and take a leap of faith.  We have spent a lot of money on our electoral body/system because we believe that free and fair elections is the cornerstone of a peaceful reform.  We know that military coups, or mass revolutions are much more chaotic, causes loss of lives and are generally more expensive.  We must therefore make sure that we have a system in Kenya where a seating government can be defeated and power transferred peacefully.  This is a Kenyan experiment and we must make it work. The Americans took a leap of faith and experimented with their republican democracy.  It paid off big time.  Kenyans must not succumb to negative thought but continue this journey we embarked on immediately Jomo Kenyattaa betrayed the principals of the 1st liberation and became a dictator, a tribalist, the looter of government coffers and a land grabber .  Its been a slow journey, because sometimes we took two steps forward as in 2002 then took a few steps back in 2007, then we took a step forward in 2010 with the new katiba and devolution then another step back in 2013 with the ouruto rigging, now we are poised for another step forward with the NASA win and we are not giving up on this country. Its the only country we have damn it.

participating in elections in Africa is just nonsense. There is no way an incumbent that is determined to subvert democracy can be defeated. You are right that NASA will be skinned in these remote areas and in informal settlements where it is hard to tell the real number of voters. There is no reason you cannot establish a fake voting station in Mathare slums or kibera

[Omollo]

It is impossible to measure "determination to subvert democracy".

We have seen some examples of despots determined to stay in power at whatever cost:

1. Burkina Faso - Thomas Compaore
2. Ivory Coast - Laurent Gbagbo
3. Malawi - Joyce Banda
4. Sierra Leone  - The the ruling SLPP seeking to impose the VP

The following have seen either a meltdown in support or concerted civil efforts to prevent rigging:
5. Ghana
6. Nigeria
7. Mauritius
8. Cape Verde
9. Gambia
10. Senegal

[Kichwa]

What we know is that they would like to stay in power for ever and if we make it easy for them they will steal.  In 2013 Mutunga court could have stopped them but he let them get away with stealing and now  they are even more emboldened.  When people are allowed to get away with crime they tend to commit it over and over again.  This is the year to stop them.  The extent that Jubiliee will go to subvert democracy is directly proportional to what they believe Kenyans will let them get away with.  It is therefore important for them to understand right now that rigging elections is not acceptable and will not be tolerated.

It is impossible to measure "determination to subvert democracy".

We have seen some examples of despots determined to stay in power at whatever cost:

1. Burkina Faso - Thomas Compaore
2. Ivory Coast - Laurent Gbagbo
3. Malawi - Joyce Banda
4. Sierra Leone  - The the ruling SLPP seeking to impose the VP

The following have seen either a meltdown in support or concerted civil efforts to prevent rigging:
5. Ghana
6. Nigeria
7. Mauritius
8. Cape Verde
9. Gambia
10. Senegal