Prof Charles Hornsby: Must read!!!

[RV Pundit]

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I have read Charles Hornsby - Kenya: A History Since Independence - he totally get kenya politics like no-one else.

Here he has really nailed 2017 election predicting Uhuru win of 53% against NASA 46% - which totally mirrors MOAS!

https://www.theelephant.info/future/2017/06/28/the-numbers-game-predicting-winners-and-losers-in-the-august-2017-poll/



He nails the parliamentary vote

[Kichwa]

Pundito.  Anybody who agrees with you is a genius at this point.  There are a lot of numbers out there predicting NASA win.  One thing I think we can all agree on is that this is a close race with a chance of breaking big for one side in the last two weeks.  When I say big I mean 53%.  You are trying too hard to convince yourself that it is a done deal. It is NOT.

[RV Pundit]

[RV Pundit]

You should read Prof Hornby work on Kenya politics (he has PHD in this)- this guy has studied kenya politics so deeply I doubt there is another expert in Kenya politics who can rival him.

Prof Hornby ---

Pundito.  Anybody who agrees with you is a genius at this point.  There are a lot of numbers out there predicting NASA win.  One thing I think we can all agree on is that this is a close race with a chance of breaking big for one side in the last two weeks.  When I say big I mean 53%.  You are trying too hard to convince yourself that it is a done deal. It is NOT.

[Kichwa]

That's old stuff, the country is always changing. I have watched a lot of polls in my life time and I have seen people who proclaim that they have predicted 20 elections correctly get it wrong. I am not there impressed as you are with your self proclaimed record. The bottom line at this point is that I believe NASA will win and you believe Jubilee will win, let us now campaign. You seem to be obsessed with your ability to predict elections accurately. It therefore deteriorates into an ego argument and not about issues.

[RV Pundit]

This is about Prof Hornby who is actually way better in predicting Kenyan elections. I mean the guy has PHD in kenya politics. I am sorry this certainly disheartening news for you.

That's old stuff the country is always changing. I have watched a lot of polls in my life time and I have seen people who have predicted 20 elections correctly get it wrong. I am not there impressed as you are with your self proclaimed record. I believe NASA will win and you believe Jubilee will win, let us now campaign. You seem to be obsessed with your ability to predict elections accurately. It therefore deteriorates into an ego argument and not about issues.

[Kichwa]

I know such polls are supposed to dishearten but a lot of people do not pay them attention anyway. I can bandika some analysis here which puts NASA ahead but its a waste of time arguing which one is correct. The only polls that will be disheartening to one side is  the nane/nane polls. Most of us can wait.

This is about Prof Hornby who is actually way better in predicting Kenyan elections. I mean the guy has PHD in kenya politics. I am sorry this certainly disheartening news for you.

That's old stuff the country is always changing. I have watched a lot of polls in my life time and I have seen people who have predicted 20 elections correctly get it wrong. I am not there impressed as you are with your self proclaimed record. I believe NASA will win and you believe Jubilee will win, let us now campaign. You seem to be obsessed with your ability to predict elections accurately. It therefore deteriorates into an ego argument and not about issues.

[Omollo]

53% is the NIS figure which we must accept or have it drummed in to our heads.

[vooke]

53% is the NIS figure which we must accept or have it drummed in to our heads.

NIS has 60%. Meza wembe.

That's Pundito's 53% plus 7% padding to effectively kill SCOK

[Omollo]

Meza wembe. The NIS has told Uhuru he is losing! They shared the information with us. You think you can pull a number out of your asshole and throw it around here like we all come from some hole in Murang'a?

53% is the NIS figure which we must accept or have it drummed in to our heads.

NIS has 60%. Meza wembe.

That's Pundito's 53% plus 7% padding to effectively kill SCOK

[vooke]

Meza wembe. The NIS has told Uhuru he is losing! They shared the information with us. You think you can pull a number out of your asshole and throw it around here like we all come from some hole in Murang'a?

53% is the NIS figure which we must accept or have it drummed in to our heads.

NIS has 60%. Meza wembe.

That's Pundito's 53% plus 7% padding to effectively kill SCOK

60% being 53% true+7% cooked. Overkill

The bipolar you whines how NIS behemoth is hellbent on stopping Rao and the next instant you hallucinate Snowdens leaking to you. Funny woman

[Omollo]

This is when one is posting while drunk. He now can't even spell.

When I was a kid my grandmother used to warn against sickly kids who would be having very sharp tongues with which to provoke others. One blow would kill them and then you live your life stigmatized. We were warned to stay away from such flame throwers who were otherwise too weak to fight.

Look at this retard trying to fight Omollo with cheap flames. A Jubilee Tenderpreneur who despite losing out still hopes Uhuru presents the best option for him. He just won't accept that Uhuru is losing.

The NIS did not leak to me. It has been all over social media for days and weeks. What will it help Jubilee to throw insulst at Omollo for something that is:

1. Common knowledge
2. Not denied by the NIS
3. Not refuted by the state (contrary to the usual policy of denying and refuting)

Here goes one:

NIS  has already told Uhuru that he will lose badly because opposition strongholds are intact and frustrated voters will vote Rao

— Cyprian, Is Nyakundi (@C_NyaKundiH) June 11, 2017

60% being 53% true+7% cooked. Overkill

The bipolar you whines how NIS behemoth is hellbent on stopping Rao and the next instant you hallucinate Snowdens leaking to you. Funny woman

[vooke]

This is when one is posting while drunk. He now can't even spell.

When I was a kid my grandmother used to warn against sickly kids who would be having very sharp tongues with which to provoke others. One blow would kill them and then you live your life stigmatized. We were warned to stay away from such flame throwers who were otherwise too weak to fight.

Look at this retard trying to fight Omollo with cheap flames. A Jubilee Tenderpreneur who despite losing out still hopes Uhuru presents the best option for him. He just won't accept that Uhuru is losing.

The NIS did not leak to me. It has been all over social media for days and weeks. What will it help Jubilee to throw insulst at Omollo for something that is:

1. Common knowledge
2. Not denied by the NIS
3. Not refuted by the state (contrary to the usual policy of denying and refuting)

Here goes one:

NIS  has already told Uhuru that he will lose badly because opposition strongholds are intact and frustrated voters will vote Rao

— Cyprian, Is Nyakundi (@C_NyaKundiH) June 11, 2017

60% being 53% true+7% cooked. Overkill

The bipolar you whines how NIS behemoth is hellbent on stopping Rao and the next instant you hallucinate Snowdens leaking to you. Funny woman

Snowdens means you have multiple sources inside NIS.

It has equally been on the social media that aria will get 10M votes.

Stop lame attempts at going back on your bullshiet; you know zilch about NIS and I know everything lol

NIS ran a secretive polling that put Uhunye at 60%. In my wildest imagination I gave him 51%, Pundito the genius among us gave him 53%, Hornsby 53%. So I figure NIS are simply working with a 7% padding which shouldn't be too hard to pull to arrive at 60%


My question is, why 60%? I mean can't the 53% do? Well, Raia will go to court despite all the silly bravado. And there will be a recount, and possibly random sampling of biometric data captured during the elections. The sampling error will be to the range of 2% in either way which won't be enoug to overturn his victory.


All this while, the entire world will be looking at a fool crying foul with 43% against Uhunye's 57%. Game over nigga, game over