Uhuru cannot even if he wanted to lose this election (like 2013 MADVD thing)-

[RV Pundit]

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He only need 29 counties...23 of them are occuppied by GEMA+Kalenjin...to beat NASA..leaving him with 18 counties just for heck of it.

He only need a few counties in NEP & Boranas  in addition to GEMA+Kalenjin core - to win narrowly against NASA - where he already polling 75% according to most opinion polls. I mean whole Northern Frontier except maybe for Wajir...is basically a fight btw Jubilee and it's allied parties..Mandera,Garissa,Isiolo, Tana River, Marsabit...those are enough to win.

[Kichwa]

Does Ouru have this information because it does not make sense for him to campaign this hard if he already has this thing in the bag.  Sometimes I do not know whether you are trying to convince yourself, reassure yourself or whether you are trying to convince us that Jubilee has won.  I am really enjoying the campaign.

He only need 29 counties...23 of them are occuppied by GEMA+Kalenjin...to beat NASA..leaving him with 18 counties just for heck of it.

He only need a few counties in NEP  in addition to GEMA+Kalenjin core - to win narrowly against NASA - where he already polling 75% according to most opinion polls.

[RV Pundit]

Just refer back to 2013 - I ran the numbers severally - I have tried all kind of possibilities - I have even once tried having NASA counties increase turned out to 95% (even 100%) - and they still couldn't beat Uhuru.

Nothing has changed - I still don't see UhuRuto losing - I still don't see a second round.

Does Ouru have this information because it does not make sense for him to campaign this hard if he already has this thing in the bag.  Sometimes I do not know whether you are trying to convince yourself, reassure yourself or whether you are trying to convince us that Jubilee has won.  I am really enjoying the campaign.

[Omollo]

Where is this propaganda coming from?

People do not vote for someone because of tribe - much as Pundit keep preaching the shit. The people who vote for Raila in Kilifi, Kakamega, Bungoma, Busia, Makueni, Machakos, Turkana, etc are not Luos.

Luos voted for Kibaki in 2002 while half of the kalenjins voted for Uhuru. We have only one tribe in Kenya that has yet to vote in large numbers for a non tribe member.

Moi locked Kibaki out of Meru and Tharaka-Nithi for over ten years. Were they Kalenjins? This theory is going nowhere.

Uhuru is going home because the following counties will give him less than 25%:
1. Homa Bay County
2. Siaya County
3. Kisumu County
4. Vihiga County
5. Kakamega County
6. Busia County
7. Makueni County
8. Migori County
9. Machakos County
10. Kilifi County
11. Bungoma County
12. Taita Taveta County
13. Kitui County
14. Kwale County
15. Kitui
16. Mombasa County
17. Kisii County
18. Turkana County
19. Nyamira County
20. Tana River County
21.Trans Nzoia County
22. Samburu County
23. Lamu County
24. Wajir
25. Marsabit County
26. Garissa County

More may be added in due course. We do not know how well Bomet will vote but we grant that he will get 25% over there as of now.

[RV Pundit]

Okay now lets change the formulae. Once you realized it impossible to beat GEMA+Kalenjin machinery - now tribe is no longer important. Donge?  UhuRuto just need Somali+Borana to win - the votes from matua+coast+gusii are top up to get him to 53%.

On 8.8.2017 like on 4th March 2013 - You'll scream rigging - when it obvious that 1) Kenyans are voting tribally as always and 2) for small tribes - you have to get key men/influential leadership in your camp.

Where is this propaganda coming from?

People do not vote for someone because of tribe - much as Pundit keep preaching the shit. The people who vote for Raila in Kilifi, Kakamega, Bungoma, Busia, Makueni, Machakos, Turkana, etc are not Luos.

Luos voted for Kibaki in 2002 while half of the kalenjins voted for Uhuru. We have only one tribe in Kenya that has yet to vote in large numbers for a non tribe member.

Moi locked Kibaki out of Meru and Tharaka-Nithi for over ten years. Were they Kalenjins? This theory is going nowhere.

Uhuru is going home because the following counties will give him less than 25%:
1. Homa Bay County
2. Siaya County
3. Kisumu County
4. Vihiga County
5. Kakamega County
6. Busia County
7. Makueni County
8. Migori County
9. Machakos County
10. Kilifi County
11. Bungoma County
12. Taita Taveta County
13. Kitui County
14. Kwale County
15. Kitui
16. Mombasa County
17. Kisii County
18. Turkana County
19. Nyamira County
20. Tana River County
21.Trans Nzoia County
22. Samburu County
23. Lamu County
24. Wajir
25. Marsabit County
26. Garissa County

More may be added in due course. We do not know how well Bomet will vote but we grant that he will get 25% over there as of now.

[Omollo]

Okay now lets change the formulae. Once you realized it impossible to beat GEMA+Kalenjin machinery - now tribe is no longer important. Donge?  UhuRuto just need Somali+Borana to win - the votes from matua+coast+gusii are top up to get him to 53%.

On 8.8.2017 like on 4th March 2013 - You'll scream rigging - when it obvious that 1) Kenyans are voting tribally as always and 2) for small tribes - you have to get key men/influential leadership in your camp

[RV Pundit]

[Omollo]

You're still fudging obvious issues.

Zero votes in Nyanza and western = 10 counties
Zero votes coast = 6
Zero votes Ukambani = 3

We start by locking him out of 19 counties.

Now I have provided you with a list of auxiliary counties from which we need a mere five. The most likely are :

Trans Nzoia
Turkana
Marsabit
Garissa
Wajir
Isiolo
Kajiado
Narok
West Pokot

I have looked at the figures, studied the dynamics and could have added Baringo and marakwet but one or two factors bring up doubt. Next two weeks will decide.

RiftValley vote is up for grabs. More and more Kalenjins are jumping ship as it becomes clear that GEMA has plan B. They say they'll support Ruto in 2022 against Kalonzo

[Kichwa]

That Kenyans have always voted tribal is a misinterpretation of the data.  When Moi was president, you want to tell me that Kenyans who voted against him were all voting tribal?  Its an insult to those who were voting against Moi because they wanted democracy and good governance.  As if Kenyans are so retarded that the only thing they understand is tribe.  Its like the conclusion of the dude who had whisky and coke on Monday and had an headache, then on Tuesday he had Gin and Coke and had a headache, then on Wednesday he had Vodka and Coke and had a headache, and so on and so forth. The dude concluded that coke causes headache.  I have supported Raila many times and I dare anybody to accuse me that its just because he is a luo. Like I am predisposed to support all luos who happen to run for president.  This crap will be debunked very soon. Even those who vote for their tribesmates have other reasons than merely tribal. Maybe kikuyus will be voting for ouru because of economic reasons-jobs, roads, coffee loan forgiveness, etc.  Maybe luos are voting for Raila because of economic reasons too.  There are also other issues like corruption, good governance, democracy, change etc.  The notion that an average Kenyan can only relate to tribe during voting exercise is a lie that those who perceive to have the tribal numbers want to exploit to perpetuity.  What I do not understand is why people who do not have the same agenda should join them in making such an outrageous statement.

[RV Pundit]

Zero votes is a little dramatic. I know you're desperate. But Uhuru will score 1% in 3 Luo counties. In Migori - Kurias are nearly 40% - and the MOU with Luos have been ripped apart - I'd not be surprised if Uhuru scores 25% of Migori thanks to Kurias.  Bungoma - that is looking like shoe in - Mt Elgon Sabaot are not about to start voting Raila -and Lusaka is doing heavy damage. The same is true in Kakamega- esp in Wanga region.

As for COAST - you clearly don't mean LAMU, TANA RIVER - where Uhuru scored more than 25% - and rest where he got very close in 2013 - and having made inroads now - shoe in?

Ukambani again is looking like Uhuru will score double digit.

You can dramatize but nobody takes you seriously - so you invent more scandalous romours but you have zero credibility.

You're still fudging obvious issues.

Zero votes in Nyanza and western = 10 counties
Zero votes coast = 6
Zero votes Ukambani = 3

We start by locking him out of 19 counties.

Now I have provided you with a list of auxiliary counties from which we need a mere five. The most likely are :

Trans Nzoia
Turkana
Marsabit
Garissa
Wajir
Isiolo
Kajiado
Narok
West Pokot

I have looked at the figures, studied the dynamics and could have added Baringo and marakwet but one or two factors bring up doubt. Next two weeks will decide.

RiftValley vote is up for grabs. More and more Kalenjins are jumping ship as it becomes clear that GEMA has plan B. They say they'll support Ruto in 2022 against Kalonzo

[RV Pundit]

It surely look tribal to me. Maybe it deeper than that - but curiously 99% of Luos will vote for Raila - while 99% of Kikuyus will vote against Raila. Maybe we need to study the 1% - who buck the trend.

That Kenyans have always voted tribal is a misinterpretation of the data.  When Moi was president, you want to tell me that Kenyans who voted against him were all voting tribal?  Its an insult to those who were voting against Moi because they wanted democracy and good governance.  As if Kenyans are so retarded that the only thing they understand is tribe.  Its like the conclusion of the dude who had whisky and coke on Monday and had an headache, then on Tuesday he had Gin and Coke and had a headache, then on Wednesday he had Vodka and Coke and had a headache, and so on and so forth. The dude concluded that coke causes headache.  I have supported Raila many times and I dare anybody to accuse me that its just because he is a luo. Like I am predisposed to support all luos who happen to run for president.  This crap will be debunked very soon. Even those who vote for their tribesmates have other reasons than merely tribal. Maybe kikuyus will be voting for ouru because of economic reasons-jobs, roads, coffee loan forgiveness, etc.  Maybe luos are voting for Raila because of economic reasons too.  There are also other issues like corruption, good governance, democracy, change etc.  The notion that an average Kenyan can only relate to tribe during voting exercise is a lie that those who perceive to have the tribal numbers want to exploit to perpetuity.  What I do not understand is why people who do not have the same agenda should join them in making such an outrageous statement.

[Kichwa]

Just because  99% of Kikuyus and 99% of luos voted for Ouru and Raila respectively does not mean tribe is the only reason or even the major factor of how they voted.   We know that if you switched the candidates with another luo and another Kikuyu, randomly,  you will not get the same results.  You sometimes claim that you approach this issue scientifically and yet you draw conclusions that are no where near science.

It surely look tribal to me. Maybe it deeper than that - but curiously 99% of Luos will vote for Raila - while 99% of Kikuyus will vote against Raila. Maybe we need to study the 1% - who buck the trend.

That Kenyans have always voted tribal is a misinterpretation of the data.  When Moi was president, you want to tell me that Kenyans who voted against him were all voting tribal?  Its an insult to those who were voting against Moi because they wanted democracy and good governance.  As if Kenyans are so retarded that the only thing they understand is tribe.  Its like the conclusion of the dude who had whisky and coke on Monday and had an headache, then on Tuesday he had Gin and Coke and had a headache, then on Wednesday he had Vodka and Coke and had a headache, and so on and so forth. The dude concluded that coke causes headache.  I have supported Raila many times and I dare anybody to accuse me that its just because he is a luo. Like I am predisposed to support all luos who happen to run for president.  This crap will be debunked very soon. Even those who vote for their tribesmates have other reasons than merely tribal. Maybe kikuyus will be voting for ouru because of economic reasons-jobs, roads, coffee loan forgiveness, etc.  Maybe luos are voting for Raila because of economic reasons too.  There are also other issues like corruption, good governance, democracy, change etc.  The notion that an average Kenyan can only relate to tribe during voting exercise is a lie that those who perceive to have the tribal numbers want to exploit to perpetuity.  What I do not understand is why people who do not have the same agenda should join them in making such an outrageous statement.

[Omollo]

When I write zero votes I mean for example when Raila gets 7000 votes in Nyeri or Uhuru gets 400 votes in Homa Bay.

In the context of 25% zero votes mean the candidate falls below the threshold! Now who is misunderstanding and over dramatizing?

I have provided you with counties where Uhuru will fall short of 25%. Those are in Western, Nyanza, Ukambani and coast. I added that Lamu and Tana River were stolen as were Kisii and Nyamira. The evidence can be found in the repeated 6. If you look at the figures closely after adding what Mudavadi got to that of Raila the figures in Nyamira and Kisii are artificial. I have no time to educate you on that since you refused to see any evidence of cooking!

Therefore Lamu and Tana River lock out Uhuru.

NASA then has to concentrate on six or seven counties. I listed them. The easiest of those is Trans Nzoia, Turkana, Garissa, Wajir. We also know Marsabit and Isiolo were stolen by the military working with Karangi. NASA is confident it can prevent that from recurring.

Our battle is to have results from Jubilee areas released along with all other results to prevent post voting topping up to beat the will of the people as happened in 2007 and 2013.

Then also  we know there will be an attempt by the IEBC Nairobi to try to revise some results. But much as that has been taken care of by the court of appeal, we see the Supreme Court being used.

Hence NASA intends to get such a huge win cheating attempts would see plans B, C, D to Z lacking any path!

I will go nowhere Pundit. God keeping me alive despite NIS attempts to EJK some of us, I'll be present on 9th to celebrate the defeat of another incumbent as I did in Sierra Leone when we beat the Ruling SLPP, in Nigeria when we sent Jonathan home and though I wasn't there having been declared PNG GAMBIA.

I can't forget Ghana where I offered my advise from a distance.

I cut my teeth in Mexico when I saw and learned how they dispatched The INSTITUTIONAL party (not a joke) after over 100 years in power!

Uhuru ni chokora compared to those mammoths and trust me!

[RV Pundit]

All I can decipher is this - we already admit we can stop Uhuru from winning 50% - maybe there is hope in blocking him from winning 25% in 24 counties- my advice go slow on the bhang - try sugarless tea- Uhuru will get 25% in nearly 40 counties. He only fall short for sure in 3 luo counties (migori after Luos took everything -women rep,senator, governor -kurias will give Uhuru 25%), possibly 2-3 in Western and possibly 2-3 in Ukambani. In short you'll struggle to block him in 7 counties to get 25%.

When I write zero votes I mean for example when Raila gets 7000 votes in Nyeri or Uhuru gets 400 votes in Homa Bay.

In the context of 25% zero votes mean the candidate falls below the threshold! Now who is misunderstanding and over dramatizing?

I have provided you with counties where Uhuru will fall short of 25%. Those are in Western, Nyanza, Ukambani and coast. I added that Lamu and Tana River were stolen as were Kisii and Nyamira. The evidence can be found in the repeated 6. If you look at the figures closely after adding what Mudavadi got to that of Raila the figures in Nyamira and Kisii are artificial. I have no time to educate you on that since you refused to see any evidence of cooking!

Therefore Lamu and Tana River lock out Uhuru.

NASA then has to concentrate on six or seven counties. I listed them. The easiest of those is Trans Nzoia, Turkana, Garissa, Wajir. We also know Marsabit and Isiolo were stolen by the military working with Karangi. NASA is confident it can prevent that from recurring.

Our battle is to have results from Jubilee areas released along with all other results to prevent post voting topping up to beat the will of the people as happened in 2007 and 2013.

Then also  we know there will be an attempt by the IEBC Nairobi to try to revise some results. But much as that has been taken care of by the court of appeal, we see the Supreme Court being used.

Hence NASA intends to get such a huge win cheating attempts would see plans B, C, D to Z lacking any path!

I will go nowhere Pundit. God keeping me alive despite NIS attempts to EJK some of us, I'll be present on 9th to celebrate the defeat of another incumbent as I did in Sierra Leone when we beat the Ruling SLPP, in Nigeria when we sent Jonathan home and though I wasn't there having been declared PNG GAMBIA.

I can't forget Ghana where I offered my advise from a distance.

I cut my teeth in Mexico when I saw and learned how they dispatched The INSTITUTIONAL party (not a joke) after over 100 years in power!

Uhuru ni chokora compared to those mammoths and trust me!

[Omollo]

All I can decipher is this - we already admit we can stop Uhuru from winning 50% - maybe there is hope in blocking him from winning 25% in 24 counties- my advice go slow on the bhang - try sugarless tea- Uhuru will get 25% in nearly 40 counties. He only fall short for sure in 3 luo counties (migori after Luos took everything -women rep,senator, governor -kurias will give Uhuru 25%), possibly 2-3 in Western and possibly 2-3 in Ukambani. In short you'll struggle to block him in 7 counties to get 25%.

There is simply no way of talking sense to you. I am going to be reviewing the whole idea of offering you intelligent responses-.

[RV Pundit]

Facts are stubborn. Deal with it. I am not here to sugarcoat facts.
For instance Migori - in 2013 - with Luo-Kuria deal - Kuria voted 50-50 - giving Uhuru 10% - and now without 50-50 kuria-Luo deal - and with Senator gone to Jubilee - expect to see Uhuru improve to near 20% of Migori

There is simply no way of talking sense to you. I am going to be reviewing the whole idea of offering you intelligent responses-.