From Frying pan to the fire - Let the rigging race begin

[patel]

If the incumbent Is the winner then why are you complaining should you not be celebrating?  Allow RO  to do their job in a honest and transparent way and NASA will be ready to concede in a free and fair election. These are only 290 announcement for crying out loud. Let chebukati sit in Nairobi and contest any announcement that he disagree with after it has been publicly announced so can give valid reasons for making changes.

The way I see - this judgement can only be due to either sheer ignorance of the reality of how corrupt our voting process is - or both parties colluding to emasculate IEBC by each swaying judges- NASA naively think they are securing their votes but I think biggest winner is the incumbent - they have the financial & security muscle to roll over ROS.

Many ROs have had their election annualled - you can count how many by-election we normally have for evidence - and the extra scrutiny that national tallying center provide has been the reason why CORD presidential election - because IEBC verify & re-verify ROS work before making final declaration.

I rather put my trust on IEBC commissioners - who have been vetted - than faceless ROS.

This is what will happen - parties will bribe or intimidate ROS to declare the results they want - there is no scrutiny in every polling station - I am not sure who is planning to go scrutinize polling station in Mandera or Garissa or Turkana.

The amount of rigging will be so much it will be like 2007. The only option would be to re-do the election or form a caretaker gok.

My prayer is IEBC rushes to SCOK and have this stupid judgement declared stupid. In the meantime the fate of this country now lies with 290s folks.

[RV Pundit]

I am complaining because I am patriotic kenyan who want credible election done. As democracy our PORK need to enjoy legitimacy otherwise he is kaput. I don't want election so messed up like ODM nomination we will end in violence or we will have to go back & spend billions in another election.

Yes I want Uhuru to win - but I want him to win in fair and free election like in 2013. I don't want 2007 scenario. Nobody wants that.

I want IEBC strengthen to conduct free and fair election. I want BVR kit to work. I want provisional results to work. I want POS & ROs to know their work will be subjected to serious scrutiny.

If the incumbent Is the winner then why are you complaining should you not be celebrating?  Allow RO  to do their job in a honest and transparent way and NASA will be ready to concede in a free and fair election. These are only 290 announcement for crying out loud. Let chebukati sit in Nairobi and contest any announcement that he disagree with after it has been publicly announced so can give valid reasons for making changes.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

If GOK can pay and intimidate 290 ROs, I bet they can, and much more effectively, the one RO in Bomas called IEBC chair. If things are so bad huko chini, we might as well have eyes opened rather than hire big bro Chebukati to put makeup on it. After all he is just one man. He cannot possibly make sure all polling stations and RO tallying centres do their job, neither can he do that job himself. So if it's that bad, let us all know that it is that bad and find another method of choosing a government, maybe a magic octopus or tea leaves or have candidates face off in rock paper sciscors. But at least let us all know that that's what we are doing and not pretend we have elections.

Yep.  If you are going to steal you are going to have to do it under the bright lights.  The idea that they will become the new focus of bribes and intimidation is an admission, if inadvertent, that the man at national talllying center is usually the target of these vices. 

They are saying "Instead of bribing and intimidating Chebukati, like we normally do, we will do it to the ROs".  The sweet of irony of making this argument seems completely lost to the jubilant.

[Kichwa]

RV Pundit. You can burst your veins over your biased analysis of the negative impact but this is the law now. Things like election results or court decision will not go your way all the time and you need to stop the temper tantrums.  While you predict doom and gloom, I see it differently.  The job of an RO just got more difficult and the court correctly dismissed the concerns that you now raise.  The only tried and tested ways of reducing or eradicating the corruption is accountability, transparency, and aggressive prosecution, conviction and punishment of perpetrators.  The spot light is on RO's. This is not just presidential elections but Ward, MP, Senate and Governor.  I do not see how a corrupt RO in Raila or Ruto's stronghold  will  somehow produce the acceptable results for the other positions but somehow inflate or deflate the presidential results.  But most importantly, RO's at the constituency level will not have the capacity to know how much votes to steal so that Ouru or Raila can win at the national level unless their is coordination from the top. I think you are being overly dramatic. That is a sign of panic attack.

The way I see - this judgement can only be due to either sheer ignorance of the reality of how corrupt our voting process is - or both parties colluding to emasculate IEBC by each swaying judges- NASA naively think they are securing their votes but I think biggest winner is the incumbent - they have the financial & security muscle to roll over ROS.

Many ROs have had their election annualled - you can count how many by-election we normally have for evidence - and the extra scrutiny that national tallying center provide has been the reason why CORD presidential election - because IEBC verify & re-verify ROS work before making final declaration.

I rather put my trust on IEBC commissioners - who have been vetted - than faceless ROS.

This is what will happen - parties will bribe or intimidate ROS to declare the results they want - there is no scrutiny in every polling station - I am not sure who is planning to go scrutinize polling station in Mandera or Garissa or Turkana.

The amount of rigging will be so much it will be like 2007. The only option would be to re-do the election or form a caretaker gok.

My prayer is IEBC rushes to SCOK and have this stupid judgement declared stupid. In the meantime the fate of this country now lies with 290s folks.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Pundits does not explain why the new interpretation of the law makes it easier for the RO's to be bribed or for the RO's to accept bribes than the earlier law.  RO's will still be held to the same standards and to the same legal responsibilities as before.  It can even be argued that RO's now are less inclined to accept bribes because of the new spot light placed on them.  Lets remember that RO's at the constituency level will also be announcing the results of the other candidates such as CMC, MP's and Governor's and therefore all their numbers will have to make some mathematical sense.   

Each of the 290, will have to figure out in the spur of the moment how to get his portion of the 2 million extra President-Only votes, while making sure he does not step on MCAs, MPs, Senators, etc.  The kind of feat that is a cakewalk with a centralized tallying point.

[Kichwa]

Actually its going to be very difficult for the RO's to steal.  They will have to be mathematical geniuses to somehow produce the correct results for the Wards, the MPs, the senators and the Governors and then somehow come up with crazy numbers for the presidential candidates.  Its much easier for one RO to do that than to coordinate all the 290 RO's to produce a desired result.  They used to announce the Ward, MP, Senate and the Governor results and then hold on to the presidents numbers so that they can figure out how much to "add" in order to "win".  Now they have been denied that luxury because they have to make all the announcements at once without the benefit of what is going on in the other parts of the country.  This ruling will make it very easy for either side to accept defeat absent any other glaring irregularity.

If GOK can pay and intimidate 290 ROs, I bet they can, and much more effectively, the one RO in Bomas called IEBC chair. If things are so bad huko chini, we might as well have eyes opened rather than hire big bro Chebukati to put makeup on it. After all he is just one man. He cannot possibly make sure all polling stations and RO tallying centres do their job, neither can he do that job himself. So if it's that bad, let us all know that it is that bad and find another method of choosing a government, maybe a magic octopus or tea leaves or have candidates face off in rock paper sciscors. But at least let us all know that that's what we are doing and not pretend we have elections.

Yep.  If you are going to steal you are going to have to do it under the bright lights.  The idea that they will become the new focus of bribes and intimidation is an admission, if inadvertent, that the man at national talllying center is usually the target of these vices. 

They are saying "Instead of bribing and intimidating Chebukati, like we normally do, we will do it to the ROs".  The sweet of irony of making this argument seems completely lost to the jubilant.

[RV Pundit]

Your naivety is the reason why Kalenjin will not make the same mistake of backing someone like Raila. This remind me (again) of 1992 election. I was a small boy then and FORD Jaramogi was really on top - and I told my late grandfather I thought he will win - he said even if he won - he'll be disposed by 2pm the same day.
Now all am hearing
1) We don't trust Chebukati - but we rather go with 290 un-vetted ROS.
2) Uhuru has to wait for figures to know how much to top up. It plain silly. Uhuru already knows the numbers he need to win.He knows where those numbers will come from.

Obviously stealing as usual will happen in strongholds - with your people of homabay as usual leading with turnout of 95% with some polling station posting 100%-- that will happen too in GEMA and possibly Kalenjin land. I don't see how that can be cured. And I have thought about it severally and there is really no good solutions. NASA agents in Kikuyu will be Jubilee folks and if they are not will be evicted from polling station. Most Raila votes in Kalenjin land will be declared spoilt or invalid for flimsy reasons. The same will happen in Luo Nyanza for Uhuru.

Election will be won in battle-ground. And those are ROS who will make the huge difference.

And as far as this issue goes..it's not final..unless IEBC are not appealing. So quit trying to shut the debate.

RV Pundit. You can burst your veins over your biased analysis of the negative impact but this is the law now. Things like election results or court decision will not go your way all the time and you need to stop the temper tantrums.  While you predict doom and gloom, I see it differently.  The job of an RO just got more difficult and the court correctly dismissed the concerns that you now raise.  The only tried and tested ways of reducing or eradicating the corruption is accountability, transparency, and aggressive prosecution, conviction and punishment of perpetrators.  The spot light is on RO's. This is not just presidential elections but Ward, MP, Senate and Governor.  I do not see how a corrupt RO in Raila or Ruto's stronghold  will  somehow produce the acceptable results for the other positions but somehow inflate or deflate the presidential results.  But most importantly, RO's at the constituency level will not have the capacity to know how much votes to steal so that Ouru or Raila can win at the national level unless their is coordination from the top. I think you are being overly dramatic. That is a sign of panic attack.

[RV Pundit]

Repeating a lie doesn't make it right. The difference in 2013 btw presidential, governor, etc - were about 10-50,000 thousands. The 2m is CORD lie. All six ballot papers will not tally up unless you're saying we have one big ballot paper.

Assuming the prov result works or their own internal tallying center - by mid-night - Uhuru or Raila will know what need topping up - and which RO to call to to top up - Chebukati will receive results 2 days later even under the current arrangement because the forms have to be delivered in person.

Each of the 290, will have to figure out in the spur of the moment how to get his portion of the 2 million extra President-Only votes, while making sure he does not step on MCAs, MPs, Senators, etc.  The kind of feat that is a cakewalk with a centralized tallying point.

[Omollo]

I had not finished serializing the judgment but this caught my eye:

1. Name one instance when the NTC (National Tallying Centre) has intervened to correct an erroneous result in 2007 & 2013;
2. All the serious incidents in these elections have occurred at the NTC

The experience most of us have is that regimes and ruling parties used to rigging get nervous when votes start being counted at polling stations.

It was first done in 2002 and KANU lost power. Then Kibaki sabotaged it in 2007 with extraneous rules that required ROs to physically bring the results to Nairobi and he rigged. The system was abolished by the constitution for the 2013 elections but Isaack Hassan and others secretly connived to water it down. This is what the courts have corrected to restore status quo ante if you will.

There are some things you say down there Pundit that are very interesting:

Many ROs have had their election annulled - you can count how many by-election we normally have for evidence:Their illegal actions are detected and the courts order special elections? Perhaps that is what we need for Presidential elections

NASA naively think they are securing their votes but I think biggest winner is the incumbent - they have the financial & security muscle to roll over ROS. I think Energizer practically said the same thing. So let me get it right, deprived of quietly behind the scenes at Bomas, preparing forgeries and presenting them as legitimate result, Jubilee will now stage an armed robbery against 290 Returning Officers. In some cases it will bribe them to blatantly alter the results.

It sounds like someone would be eager to re-enact the 2007 Crisis. Of course Energizer said it will be be blamed on Raila and he will be sent to The Hague (Mutahi Ngunyi) and leave Ruto and Uhuru behind enjoying their second term.

The question is: What is different from 2007 and 2008 ? Kibaki planned it the same way. He even ratified the ICC treaty. However when the real evidence came in, it implicated Uhuru and others.

I rather put my trust on IEBC commissioners - who have been vetted - than faceless ROS.: Remember Kihara Muttu who assured Kivuitu all was well and he will run things as Kivuitu took his meds at home? How about Thomas Letangule?

I have never seen more corrupt people than IEBC commissioners! Right now we have one from NEP with 100 complaints against him from parties, aspirants, candidates etc from NEP. He is peddling influence and holding meetings alongside Abdikadir Hussein Mohammed
 
This is what will happen - parties will bribe or intimidate ROS to declare the results they want - there is no scrutiny in every polling station - I am not sure who is planning to go scrutinize polling station in Mandera or Garissa or Turkana. May be it is because the IEBC has been busy fighting wrong battles instead of putting in place mechanisms to ensure its staff deliver. ROs are part and parcel of the IEBC.
The amount of rigging will be so much it will be like 2007. The only option would be to re-do the election or form a caretaker gok:
I beg to disagree. The number of persons per polling station is reduced to 700 and would have been 500 had Jubilee not moved an amendment to increase it to 700. There is one register unlike 2007 and 2013 when nobody knew how many people were registered or how many registers existed.
My prayer is IEBC rushes to SCOK and have this stupid judgement declared stupid. In the meantime the fate of this country now lies with 290s folks:I wont be surprised if they go the the SCoK. Like I said Njoki Ndung'u is waiting. Here is the catch: If they do and that corrupt court rules as ordered or bribed to, it will destroy it permanently. NASA will still win but we shall insist on investigating 2013 deeper as pay back to the Judges

The way I see - this judgement can only be due to either sheer ignorance of the reality of how corrupt our voting process is - or both parties colluding to emasculate IEBC by each swaying judges- NASA naively think they are securing their votes but I think biggest winner is the incumbent - they have the financial & security muscle to roll over ROS.

Many ROs have had their election annualled - you can count how many by-election we normally have for evidence - and the extra scrutiny that national tallying center provide has been the reason why CORD presidential election - because IEBC verify & re-verify ROS work before making final declaration.

I rather put my trust on IEBC commissioners - who have been vetted - than faceless ROS.

This is what will happen - parties will bribe or intimidate ROS to declare the results they want - there is no scrutiny in every polling station - I am not sure who is planning to go scrutinize polling station in Mandera or Garissa or Turkana.

The amount of rigging will be so much it will be like 2007. The only option would be to re-do the election or form a caretaker gok.

My prayer is IEBC rushes to SCOK and have this stupid judgement declared stupid. In the meantime the fate of this country now lies with 290s folks.

[Omollo]

It took Isaack Hassan three years of fiddling with the results to eventually reduce it to a few hundred thousands.

Repeating a lie doesn't make it right. The difference in 2013 btw presidential, governor, etc - were about 10-50,000 thousands. The 2m is CORD lie. All six ballot papers will not tally up unless you're saying we have one big ballot paper.

Assuming the prov result works or their own internal tallying center - by mid-night - Uhuru or Raila will know what need topping up - and which RO to call to to top up - Chebukati will receive results 2 days later even under the current arrangement because the forms have to be delivered in person.

Each of the 290, will have to figure out in the spur of the moment how to get his portion of the 2 million extra President-Only votes, while making sure he does not step on MCAs, MPs, Senators, etc.  The kind of feat that is a cakewalk with a centralized tallying point.

[Omollo]

It is evident to us from the above sequence of events that the role of the Chairperson of the appellant is circumscribed. Article 138 deals with events at the polling stations where votes are counted, tallied, verified and declared. We hold further that reference to the appellant in Sub Article (3)(c) is not to be construed to mean the chairperson but rather, the returning officers who are mandated, after counting the votes in the polling stations, to tally and verify the count and declare the result. The appellant, as opposed to its chairperson, upon receipt of prescribed forms containing tabulated results for election of President electronically transmitted to it from the near 40,000 polling stations, is required to tally and the results received at the national tallying centre, without interfering with the figures and details of the outcome of the vote as received from the constituency tallying centre.

At the very tail end of this process, in Article 138(10) the chairperson then declares the result of the presidential election, and delivers a written notification of the result to the Chief Justice and to the incumbent President. That is how circumscribed and narrow the role of the chairperson of the appellant is.

Should a dispute arise from that election, though conducted in 290 constituencies, it would be farcical to suggest, as the appellant did, that that would require an aggrieved candidate to file 290 petitions. There is no more substance in that argument than there would be in a contention that petitions should be filed against all presiding officers in their thousands.

To conclude on the relationship between the appellant and its chairperson, the appellant is defined in section 2 of the Act as well as section 2 of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission Act to mean;



The appellant is declared by Article 253 to be a body corporate with perpetual succession and a seal. It is independent and in the performance of its functions, it is not subject to the direction or control of any person or authority. The appellant consists, in law of the chairperson and six members, supported by a secretary. (See sections 5 and 10 of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission Act).

The chairperson on the other hand is appointed under Article 250 of the Constitution.

The chairperson therefore cannot be, and is not, the appellant.

It is envisaged in Article 86 that for the purpose of conducting an election the appellant will be represented at the polling stations and constituency tallying centres by the presiding officers, and the returning officers, respectively, who as we have seen, are appointed by the appellant.

They are in every respect employees of the appellant and its agents in the eyes of the law. It is as hypocritical as it is incongruous for the appellant to doubt the competency, proficiency and honesty of its own staff as the reason for the need to

[Kadame5]

I don't see the problem here. The ROs are not the final word, the SCOK is. If they announce a stupid result a retally and recount can be ordered and the court is free to accept those results as final or order another election in 60 days. The court is even free to maintain the announced results if it thinks there isnt a good enougg reason to question a particular result.

If that is all Chebukati was going to do anyway, what is the problem with having the SCOK do it in the glare of the public eye? We have had a presidential election petition before. We disagreed with its finding. We moved on. What is this fear of courts rather than Chebukati changing a result that was announced before all?

All this judgment has done is acknowledge that Chebukati is not a court. Once a result has been publicly tallied and announced in the presence of the public and all the parties, it is a very serious thing for someone to purport to change it in his office. That's really all the court is saying. Once the publicly tallied results are announced, they can only be tampered with in a similarly public and open process after good reasons have been similarly publicly given and debated and judged--again publicly--good enough to reopen the results announced before the public and all parties. That process is the court.

Chebukati cannot all by himself decide, for us all, to resolve the fact that there is corruption in elections by chosing the best outcome in his office.  After an RO has done the criminal thing, his actions can be looked at and things determined.

And if things are really beyond repair, well then, let it be out in the public that it is beyond repair. Maybe then we can get an institution truly beyond the influence of anyone, like a UN or EU body, to do everything, including hiring all non-Kenyan staff at the polling station  and we only guarantee security. Or we just agree to play picky picky ponky between candidates. Both are better than hiring a commission to create a facade of credibility in a process that lacks that.

[RV Pundit]

That is exactly what will happen. SCOK will have to perform the job of National Tally Center because we have tied Chebukati hands. They will have to order re-counting and re-tallying because as of now Chebukati job basically ended when he hired those ROS.

However SCOK are not IEBC - so if they recourt & retally and discover errors - they cannot change the results. They cannot declare a new winner. Meaning the election will be annulled and we will go back for a fresh one. Loop that couple of times.

In short - errors or mistakes that could be DETECTED & RECTIFIED - by Chebukati - cannot be cured - so we keep repeating elections. These elections are damn expensive - and will hurt the economy.

You say you don't trust Chebukati/National tally - but explain to me why under the old system - SCOK cannot examine/audit any  correction & verification Chebukati did - order re-counting & re-tallying -- of ballots & etc.

We had CORD petition - they ordered re-counting and re-tallying - Hassan had his tally center - they didn't find any cooking by Hassan. What exactly are we even trying to cure here? 2007 rigging - now we brand new IEBC & SCOK - we just need to trust them. This is not 2007 when Kibaki picked his own IEBC and SCOK.

In short we have emasculated IEBC. The extra layer of verification & rectification is gone.  We definitely will have to re-do the elections.  SCOK can verify all they want but they cannot change the results. Chebukati can verify and rectify saving us from mistakes that ROs will definitely make.

I don't see the problem here. The ROs are not the final word, the SCOK is. If they announce a stupid result a retally and recount can be ordered and the court is free to accept those results as final or order another election in 60 days. The court is even free to maintain the announced results if it thinks there isnt a good enougg reason to question a particular result.

If that is all Chebukati was going to do anyway, what is the problem with having the SCOK do it in the glare of the public eye? We have had a presidential election petition before. We disagreed with its finding. We moved on. What is this fear of courts rather than Chebukati changing a result that was announced before all?

All this judgment has done is acknowledge that Chebukati is not a court. Once a result has been publicly tallied and announced in the presence of the public and all the parties, it is a very serious thing for someone to purport to change it in his office. That's really all the court is saying. Once the publicly tallied results are announced, they can only be tampered with in a similarly public and open process after good reasons have been similarly publicly given and debated and judged--again publicly--good enough to reopen the results announced before the public and all parties. That process is the court.

Chebukati cannot all by himself decide, for us all, to resolve the fact that there is corruption in elections by chosing the best outcome in his office.  After an RO has done the criminal thing, his actions can be looked at and things determined.

And if things are really beyond repair, well then, let it be out in the public that it is beyond repair. Maybe then we can get an institution truly beyond the influence of anyone, like a UN or EU body, to do everything, including hiring all non-Kenyan staff at the polling station  and we only guarantee security. Or we just agree to play picky picky ponky between candidates. Both are better than hiring a commission to create a facade of credibility in a process that lacks that.