It would be misguided. Western youths are all over kenya working as laborers. If they start fire in their neighborhood..they are going to make it hard for themselves outside western. Obviously everyone is going to be in safe place on 9th after 2007 nobody want to take chances.
When you guys started fire in 2008 did you first take count of your emigre population? Some were waylaid at Kinangop and murdered on the road. Luhyas too were pulled out of matatus and killed on live TV.
You know how it was going to go in two weeks beyond the "ceasefire" and you know how it would have been a month after. But I can educate you how it would have been beyond that.
Kibaki would have sent the GSU and all the remaining police against his opponents. First they would divide in tribes then set against each other in defence of their own people before sinking in self destruction.
He would then send the army and that would also divide and break up in to various tribal units.The so called government or army would become just one of the factions. Forces of the Sea and Air would struggle but intervention forces - which would have come - would put the air force out of action first by verbal order and later if not heeded would destroy it completely to eliminate a threat to the intervention forces (be they UN, AU).
By the end of the first year, new leaders would have emerged from different tribes and tribal alliances.
The Kalenjin,Maa, Luo, Luhya and Miji Kenda would have formed an alliance while the Kamba would have joined the Kikuyu.
Al Shabaab would seize the opportunity to seize NFD