Rough MOAS shows tight rise of 50% versus 49%.

[RV Pundit]

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Uhuru -8.5m (49.9%)   
RAILA -8.2m (48.5%)

- Note I have noted added PK & Martha votes to Uhuru column --so others have 1.6%/

[Omollo]

Pundit

That is old news. That is how it would have been had Isaac Hassan not fiddled with figures. Raila would then have walloped Uhuru in the runoff - just like Uhuru's own pundits warned him.

Mudavadi's votes to Raila minus Western votes (66,185) I believe gave that result.

Turnout was subdued in Western due to the Mudavadi play. There was trouble in Nyanza due to the activities of Raila's confidants and family. That is not there this time.

You do not have Ngilu to give you votes in Ukambani. And Issac will cause you some headache.

You have the burden of incumbency.

God help you. NASA is running away with this thing in the first round at 52%

Uhuru -8.5m (49.9%)   
RAILA -8.2m (48.5%)

- Note I have noted added PK & Martha votes to Uhuru column --so others have 1.6%/

[RV Pundit]

This is rough moas..once we get final figures we will see whose sweating. Western turn out at 83% is marginally lower than say Ukambani & rest of country (85%) - so I don't see any advantage there. I don't expect any region outside luo,kalenjin and kikuyu to heat 90% turn out - it never happened before and it won't happen now. We will play with figures. As for Isaac - replacing Franklin Bett, Kamar, Henry Kosgey,Margarer and gazillion of fallen ODM ministers & ass ministers going into 2013  - you've got jokes. Isaac will get NASA 10k votes - no more no less.The way I see - Jubilee will improve in whole lot of areas - coast, ukambani, gusii and northern kenya - thanks to incumbency and work they've done wooing those communities.

As of now if you add PK/Martha to Uhuru its 51% verus 49% -- if you add gains Jubilee have made -- mm that could 1-2% more.

Pundit

That is old news. That is how it would have been had Isaac Hassan not fiddled with figures. Raila would then have walloped Uhuru in the runoff - just like Uhuru's own pundits warned him.

Mudavadi's votes to Raila minus Western votes (66,185) I believe gave that result.

Turnout was subdued in Western due to the Mudavadi play. There was trouble in Nyanza due to the activities of Raila's confidants and family. That is not there this time.

You do not have Ngilu to give you votes in Ukambani. And Issac will cause you some headache.

You have the burden of incumbency.

God help you. NASA is running away with this thing in the first round at 52%

[Nefertiti]

I thought so - Jubilee has lost tyranny.

Uhuru -8.5m (49.9%)   
RAILA -8.2m (48.5%)

- Note I have noted added PK & Martha votes to Uhuru column --so others have 1.6%/

[RV Pundit]

Pretty tight race if you assume jubilee have made no gains and NASA has made all gains (MaDVD). I do think Jubilee has made lots of headways that will move their percentage to 53% -from current 51%.

I thought so - Jubilee has lost tyranny.

[Nefertiti]

Yes but I expect expect more trouble for Jubilee in the new IEBC figures. You are using 2013 numbers when CORD slept on the job during voter registration.

Pretty tight race if you assume jubilee have made no gains and NASA has made all gains (MaDVD). I do think Jubilee has made lots of headways that will move their percentage to 53% -from current 51%.

[RV Pundit]

I am using unverified 2017 figures - of 19.7m votes. I think cleaning will not change that completely. Anyway when I am done with final MOAS - we will know how the cookie will crumble.

Yes but I expect expect more trouble for Jubilee in the new IEBC figures. You are using 2013 numbers when CORD slept on the job during voter registration.

[Omollo]

You problem is that you have the desired result and are now looking for evidence and methods to support it. You know that usually fails.

Let the evidence lead to you a conclusion and accept it.

Mudavadi was an asset in Jubilee but in NASA he is not? Is that your reasoning?

If Mung'aro claims votes to Jubilee at the Coast that is "ground shifting" but when a leading Jubilee politician defects that is "nothing"?

You are over-estimating the power and influence of William Ruto in RV. This is a man who has been defied in Uasin Gishu, Nandi, Kericho and for all I care Bomet, etc. There is a huge rebellion in Elgeyo Marakwet which will see votes go to KANU and NASA. He has lost the Pokot because of arming their enemies and recruiting police reservists.

He is at war with the Moi Family and who knows what deal Mama Ngina made over his head.

Wake up. You are where my dear brother Kichwa was when we had a fight as to whether Raila had been duped or not. I saw the writing on the wall and cried foul. Kichwa still believed (as he has candidly confessed).

NASA would have to make a huge mistake for Uhuru to get a runoff. Right now it is as I said 52% NASA. If this continues to 55% sitting governments seeking reelection usually collapse. Your mandarins will bolt; The politicians will shift allegiance; Businessmen will run and others will seek refuge (Kujisalimisha) and the army top brass will seek assurances. Now the last one is dangerous. I can only hope NASA wins with 53% or in a runoff to cool temperatures and the panic.

Pretty tight race if you assume jubilee have made no gains and NASA has made all gains (MaDVD). I do think Jubilee has made lots of headways that will move their percentage to 53% -from current 51%.

I thought so - Jubilee has lost tyranny.

[Omollo]

Robina

Do not buy the Jubilee propaganda. Despite IEBC handing Jubilee more registration kits, NASA managed to increase the number of registered voters in its areas. See:

Yes but I expect expect more trouble for Jubilee in the new IEBC figures. You are using 2013 numbers when CORD slept on the job during voter registration.

Pretty tight race if you assume jubilee have made no gains and NASA has made all gains (MaDVD). I do think Jubilee has made lots of headways that will move their percentage to 53% -from current 51%.

[patel]

garbage in garbage out...ati uhuru leading by what? it will not even be close this time around. good luck and eat Jubilee quietly

Uhuru -8.5m (49.9%)   
RAILA -8.2m (48.5%)

- Note I have noted added PK & Martha votes to Uhuru column --so others have 1.6%/

[RV Pundit]

You can go on and on but I'll compile my MOAS and we will talk on August. I have done this over several elections and my record speak for itself.

You problem is that you have the desired result and are now looking for evidence and methods to support it. You know that usually fails.

Let the evidence lead to you a conclusion and accept it.

Mudavadi was an asset in Jubilee but in NASA he is not? Is that your reasoning?

If Mung'aro claims votes to Jubilee at the Coast that is "ground shifting" but when a leading Jubilee politician defects that is "nothing"?

You are over-estimating the power and influence of William Ruto in RV. This is a man who has been defied in Uasin Gishu, Nandi, Kericho and for all I care Bomet, etc. There is a huge rebellion in Elgeyo Marakwet which will see votes go to KANU and NASA. He has lost the Pokot because of arming their enemies and recruiting police reservists.

He is at war with the Moi Family and who knows what deal Mama Ngina made over his head.

Wake up. You are where my dear brother Kichwa was when we had a fight as to whether Raila had been duped or not. I saw the writing on the wall and cried foul. Kichwa still believed (as he has candidly confessed).

NASA would have to make a huge mistake for Uhuru to get a runoff. Right now it is as I said 52% NASA. If this continues to 55% sitting governments seeking reelection usually collapse. Your mandarins will bolt; The politicians will shift allegiance; Businessmen will run and others will seek refuge (Kujisalimisha) and the army top brass will seek assurances. Now the last one is dangerous. I can only hope NASA wins with 53% or in a runoff to cool temperatures and the panic.

Pretty tight race if you assume jubilee have made no gains and NASA has made all gains (MaDVD). I do think Jubilee has made lots of headways that will move their percentage to 53% -from current 51%.

I thought so - Jubilee has lost tyranny.

[Omollo]

The one you just posted did not line up with the ready findings you wanted it to support so you have taken it down. If it was Nairobi that was wrong and you were using a spreadsheet (excel) it takes a split second to rectify.

The problem is that the deeper you dig the more you realize that what we have been saying here that Isaac Hassan stole the election for Uhuru and that the least that we could get was a runoff becomes clearer.

I have been through those results. I have prepared the same document that you took down and can tell you the outcome. I had all the voting percentages and applied them to the new figures. In fact I already had the template and simple keyed in the figures.

I combined the Mudavadi figures with Raila's.

When it came to the others like PK, I chose to split the vote equally between Raila and Uhuru (not that their votes mattered.

I can tell you that there was vote stuffing in most of RV and Central for Jubilee but in spite of it, CORD still forced a runoff instead of a first round victory.
 
 

[Kichwa]

The rough MOAS does not seem good for Jubilee.  This is not where Jubilee was supposed to be after 4 years in control of both the parliament, the Senate and the Executive branch of the government while opposition was in literary in disarray. 

You can go on and on but I'll compile my MOAS and we will talk on August. I have done this over several elections and my record speak for itself.

You problem is that you have the desired result and are now looking for evidence and methods to support it. You know that usually fails.

Let the evidence lead to you a conclusion and accept it.

Mudavadi was an asset in Jubilee but in NASA he is not? Is that your reasoning?

If Mung'aro claims votes to Jubilee at the Coast that is "ground shifting" but when a leading Jubilee politician defects that is "nothing"?

You are over-estimating the power and influence of William Ruto in RV. This is a man who has been defied in Uasin Gishu, Nandi, Kericho and for all I care Bomet, etc. There is a huge rebellion in Elgeyo Marakwet which will see votes go to KANU and NASA. He has lost the Pokot because of arming their enemies and recruiting police reservists.

He is at war with the Moi Family and who knows what deal Mama Ngina made over his head.

Wake up. You are where my dear brother Kichwa was when we had a fight as to whether Raila had been duped or not. I saw the writing on the wall and cried foul. Kichwa still believed (as he has candidly confessed).

NASA would have to make a huge mistake for Uhuru to get a runoff. Right now it is as I said 52% NASA. If this continues to 55% sitting governments seeking reelection usually collapse. Your mandarins will bolt; The politicians will shift allegiance; Businessmen will run and others will seek refuge (Kujisalimisha) and the army top brass will seek assurances. Now the last one is dangerous. I can only hope NASA wins with 53% or in a runoff to cool temperatures and the panic.

Pretty tight race if you assume jubilee have made no gains and NASA has made all gains (MaDVD). I do think Jubilee has made lots of headways that will move their percentage to 53% -from current 51%.

I thought so - Jubilee has lost tyranny.

[Pajero]

This thing will be won by ballot stuffing,whoever manages to stuff more will carry the day,Chebukati has just appealled the decision to announce results at the polling station.

[RV Pundit]

I think that will happen mainly in kikuyu and luo nyanza where party agents of rival parties will not be allowed to object. Final results at polling station makes collusion even greater. There is no way to counter-check that. I think final results at const level is the safer middle ground.

This thing will be won by ballot stuffing,whoever manages to stuff more will carry the day,Chebukati has just appealled the decision to announce results at the polling station.

[Pajero]

Const level is even more dangerous,polling station is much better because the no of registered voters in most polling station averages 3,000.Live streaming of results is the way to go,no more no less.

[Omollo]

Const level is even more dangerous,polling station is much better because the no of registered voters in most polling station averages 3,000.Live streaming of results is the way to go,no more no less.

Why do you think video evidence is being rejected uniformly by all the courts in Kenya? Right now you can post a video saying Uhuru is a paedophile and no court would convict you.

They fear the fact that NASA plans to video-tape results in ALL the polling stations and announcements by ALL the Returning officers at constituencies.

Pundit the law that Jubilee is forcing the IEBC to appeal against actually provides for the Returning officer's results to be final. The RO for Presidential elections in counties is the constituency RO. Isaac Hassan appointed himself Returning Officer for Presidential elections. He was a commissioner not the CEO. 

It is the same as expecting Florida to send results to Washington then washington makes changes before announcing.

[RV Pundit]

You may be right - if we limit every polling station to say 1,000 votes - then it makes sense. My polling station in Nairobi though has so many streams and I guess polling station...I don't know how they fix that.

It given that election in strongholds will be rigged - collusion - no rival agent allowed - luckly those strongholds are not many.

Const level is even more dangerous,polling station is much better because the no of registered voters in most polling station averages 3,000.Live streaming of results is the way to go,no more no less.

[Omollo]

The maximum number of voters per polling station has been set at 700.