Raila Planning Super Anti-Jubliee Alliance

[Simanova]

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Pundit

This is the area which provided the votes that denied Raila the second round. He is stopped by a crowd in Mbale. And you say Jubilee will win? I urge you to get out and visit Kenya. Things have changed so fast against your two fellows even I could not believe support can vanish that fast.

Raila can include MaDVD in the coalition but no big role. He will bring nothing to the coalition and staying out will be the same as him coming in.

http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2016/06/21/work-with-mudavadi-in-2017-to-win-mbale-residents-tell-raila_c1372262?platform=hootsuite

[RV Pundit]

Western will remain Raila's weakest link. I am seeing Jubilee winning 1/3 of the votes in Bukusu for starters  -wamalwa & Lusaka group . Now bringing MaDVD; where do you put Wetangula; leave alone the Kakamega wars btw govenor and khawale.  Ukambani is basically split...and Kalonzo might have to ran...to stop Mutua eating his lunch.

CORD just has too many egoistic folks I see it imploding.

Pundit

This is the area which provided the votes that denied Raila the second round. He is stopped by a crowd in Mbale. And you say Jubilee will win? I urge you to get out and visit Kenya. Things have changed so fast against your two fellows even I could not believe support can vanish that fast.

Raila can include MaDVD in the coalition but no big role. He will bring nothing to the coalition and staying out will be the same as him coming in.

[Simanova]

Pundit

You said the same the last time. Jubilee could not manage 70K votes in all Western I believe. Yet the myth of 2/3 continues. Where were those votes when Wetangula went for re-election amid Jubilee billions for his opponent? He increased his share of the vote!

There is no vote for Jubilee in Western. Ken Lusaka is gone. The new governor will be Alfred Khang'ati. Eunice Wamalwa can forget the governorship of Trans Nzoia. He's being retired.

Western will remain Raila's weakest link. I am seeing Jubilee winning 1/3 of the votes in Bukusu for starters  -wamalwa & Lusaka group . Now bringing MaDVD; where do you put Wetangula; leave alone the Kakamega wars btw govenor and khawale.  Ukambani is basically split...and Kalonzo might have to ran...to stop Mutua eating his lunch.

CORD just has too many egoistic folks I see it imploding

[RV Pundit]

What happened last time? -Are you the one crying that western basically ate Raila lunch . I think New Ford Kenya won some. Madvd's UDF won some. And basically ODM came short of even 50% of the vote. Wamalwa is shoe-in in Tranzoia if Kalenjin & Kikuyus there decide to vote him.

And then at end of the day western registered votes is 1.6M...which is just too little....way behind RV (3.8m), Eastern & Central (2.4) & Nyanza (2.2m),Nairobi (1.9m) -and the other laggard coast 1.1m.

Below is a summary of the number of registered voters per province.

Riftvalley- 3,757,776

Central- 2,398,815

Eastern- 2,363,156

Nyanza- 2,226,671

Nairobi- 1,868,551

Western-1,616,518

Coast- 1,198,216

North Eastern- 376,818

Something has to be done first to increase western & coast vote..it next to NEP who are going to be 0.4-0.5m --while western have been stuck at 1.4-1.6mm.

Pundit

You said the same the last time. Jubilee could not manage 70K votes in all Western I believe. Yet the myth of 2/3 continues. Where were those votes when Wetangula went for re-election amid Jubilee billions for his opponent? He increased his share of the vote!

There is no vote for Jubilee in Western. Ken Lusaka is gone. The new governor will be Alfred Khang'ati. Eunice Wamalwa can forget the governorship of Trans Nzoia. He's being retired.

[Pajero]

Of the 3.7 million voters in RV,1 million actually belong to CORD,Raila got 0.8 million RV votes in 2013.Fact or fiction?

[RV Pundit]

This time round he'd be lucky to get half of that. I think he did well among Maasai but know he is dead there; the same with turkanas; I can only imagine him making the numbers from Luo, Gusii and Luhya diaspora in RV.

Of the 3.7 million voters in RV,1 million actually belong to CORD,Raila got 0.8 million RV votes in 2013.Fact or fiction?

[Pajero]

On the contrary,i think it will even be more considering that maasais are not happy with jubilee administration,Turkanas are in CORD to stay,Isaac & Salat may also give us a slight chunk of south Rift while Gideon takes care of Baringo.Baba just needs addition 300k votes in RV.

[RV Pundit]

That is where you go wrong. Those unhappy in RV are not considering Raila. Raila is toxic. They are going to ran in their small parties but will support Jubilee. I am predicting this time round...Uhuru will sweep RV and most of the country..now that they enjoy incumbency..and Raila unlike in 2013 when he was the incumbent..is now running as common man.

It going to be worse for CORD.

On the contrary,i think it will even be more considering that maasais are not happy with jubilee administration,Turkanas are in CORD to stay,Isaac & Salat may also give us a slight chunk of south Rift while Gideon takes care of Baringo.Baba just needs addition 300k votes in RV.

[Pajero]

Raila is only toxic to GEMA & kalenjins.All other tribes love him,Thats why he won in 5 out of 8 provinces.Uhuruto are only popular among two tribes.