Dr. Ndii- Very Eloquent Negro

[vooke]

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Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Ndii is a bright African.  I don't know if everything he says is correct.  But he relies on sense to arrive at conclusion.  Rare in those parts of the globe.

[MOON Ki]

Ndii is a very smart fellow, but sometimes he manages to confuse even himself.  Consider, for example, his commentary on Obama's visit.   This was billed as

So, what exactly did Obama promise and not deliver?   Reading along, one finds something else:

Not so the rest of the hype and stratospheric expectations.

Whose hype?   Whose expectations?

Ndii then goes on to state that:

If so, why is Africa not feeding the world?

The main reason are agricultural subsidies by rich countries.

It is peculiar to think of Africa feeding the world when it cannot feed itself.   Why get concerned with food exports to the rich countries when Africans in Africa are dying of starvation?   Why is it that some countries can lease African land, grow food for their people on that land, and have enough left over to give food aid to the very same countries where they grew that food? 

The subsidies that rich countries give to their farmers have nothing to do with any of that.  On the contrary, subsidies to USA farmers has meant that generations of Africans have been able to stay alive on yellow maize when their "leaders" were otherwise engaged in large-scale theft, numerous atrocities and crimes against humanity, and other assorted mayhem.

Ndii correctly notes that there is a new scramble for Africa and that some of it involves land for food.   As with earlier scrambles, the natives seem preoccupied with other things while the foreigners move in and make the most of it.    Later, there will, I imagine, be a general wailing and gnashing of teeth.   In the meantime, here is some of the story:

http://jukwaa.proboards.com/thread/7351

Africa could well end up feeding the world, but with Africans still starving.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Ndii is a very smart fellow, but sometimes he manages to confuse even himself.  Consider, for example, his commentary on Obama's visit.   This was billed as

So, what exactly did Obama promise and not deliver?   Reading along, one finds something else:

Not so the rest of the hype and stratospheric expectations.

Whose hype?   Whose expectations?

Ndii then goes on to state that:

If so, why is Africa not feeding the world?

The main reason are agricultural subsidies by rich countries.

It is peculiar to think of Africa feeding the world when it cannot feed itself.   Why get concerned with food exports to the rich countries when Africans in Africa are dying of starvation?   Why is it that some countries can lease African land, grow food for their people on that land, and have enough left over to give food aid to the very same countries where they grew that food? 

The subsidies that rich countries give to their farmers have nothing to do with any of that.  On the contrary, subsidies to USA farmers has meant that generations of Africans have been able to stay alive on yellow maize when their "leaders" were otherwise engaged in large-scale theft, numerous atrocities and crimes against humanity, and other assorted mayhem.

He has a lot of indisputable figures in his head.  Subsidies might be a reason for Africa not feeding the world.  But not the main one.  I think he ran ahead of himself on that one.  There is simply no infrastructural capacity. 

I think he is spot on about Kenya(and Africans by extension)  going above and beyond stuff that comes out of the ground, taking advantage of cheap labor and manufacturing things that people in Africa and elsewhere will buy.

He makes sense about the SGR too.  Why build a new railway when the existing one is not even utilized to capacity?  Why not build a new line from Lamu to elsewhere leaving the old line in place?  He sees through the glamour of such projects.

[MOON Ki]

I think he is spot on about Kenya(and Africans by extension)  going above and beyond stuff that comes out of the ground, taking advantage of cheap labor and manufacturing things that people in Africa and elsewhere will buy.

(Ndii is almost-always spot-on, and it is a pity that people like him don't have more of a say at the national level.)

There appears to be little interest in that in Africa, even with all the idle youthful labour in Africa.   With labour costs in China going up, folks who used to outsource to Kung Fu are beginning to look elsewhere---Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, etc.   Even Kung Fu is beginning to outsource to those places!

We, on the other hand seem quite happy to get into debt while praising all the "help" we are getting.   We continue to send over raw materials and then cheerfully pay through the nose for "value-added" junk.   And we are always sure that we are getting one heck of a deal. 

Take, for example, Kenya---"reliable island in an ocean of chaos", "economic powerhouse of East Africa", and "important ally in the war on terror".    What is being done there in manufacturing?   How is the youth unemployment-problem going to be solved?   (And I agree with Ndii that the NYS is not an answer and is probably more of a danger.)  Unlike most African countries, we don't have a "rebel army" to absorb this lot, which means that we should expect more troublemakers who on the edges of society.    Maybe it's not such bad idea to have an "arrangement" in which a majority are drunk by noon ...

[vooke]

On exports(outside coffee and tea) he correctly noted it was not out of any competitive advantage but just due to massive failure in other African countries. As these correct and rise up, Kenia exports are threatened.

I like his take on sugar. Western and Nyanza will have to evolve or perish

[RV Pundit]

I'm yet to watch the videos but I like reading Dr Ndii well researched articles  backed with some evidence and data although more often than not; they are pessimistic; the man has never seen anything praiseworthy; which raises red flags to me.

As for SGR, I think this has been explained, WB/IFC concession-ed the railway for 25yrs to some South African conman and despite some Egyptian big money coming on-board; the Kenya-Uganda old railway line will continue being  a mess.Manufacturing...this is happening in some parts of Africa (Ethiopia with shoes and clothes) however Kenya is misnomer that has really high labout costs (Dr Ndii should know that) but well high productivity, so if Chineses are looking for really cheap labour, kenya will not be the place to pitch tent....the least Mjengo in guy wants in a day is nearly 500 (kshs 10-15k a month)...in most other countries in Africa & Asia..you can pay half that.

That doesn't mean Kenya cannot get the manufacturing pie; it can; of course if it reduces other cost; transport cost (among world highest), electricity cost (among world highest), and then time, reliability and whole infrastructure...and we have really productive labour...then manufacturers will pitch tent. US got to manufacturing despite never lowering their labour cost..coz they made it up by being really innovative, productive and efficient.

Kenya will not be destination for really low cost manufacturing...it won't work...that model is flying in Ethiopia...but Kenya .

We are investing heavily on infrastructure and that should pay off....roads, airports, ports, rail, power stations and all we know need are investors....set up manufacturing bases..preferably in the Coast  or along the SGR routes.

The economy has consistently grown at about 5% for last 10 decades plus. Surely there is  a lot that is working in this country. There are sectors that are kicking butt..some at world class level. I am talking about our financial sector, our tea sector rose to become world largest black tea produce and we now produce too much tea that the world cannot consume...and industry is turning to green tea, we have generally very good education systems (that ranks amongst some developed country) and our university expansion is truly breathtaking (10yrs ago, we had about 30k total students, now annually we admit close to 200k or more students), I can go on and on...but there are stuff that are working.

If Dr Ndii (doom) want to be taken seriously, It about time he learnt to be OBJECTIVE AND BALANCED. You cannot predict doom and gloom for years when economy is growing and there are visible maendeleo every where you cast your eyes?

Dr Doom quit Equity after folks there got tired with his doomsday scenario....and look at Equity now...it kicking arse in really BIG BIG way. If Mwangi had listen to Dr Doom, Equity wouldn't have started...but now Equity is generating about 20B kshs every year....to James and his fellow shareholders...every year. Dr Doom still relies on his salary and hand outs.

So Dr Doom should go slow on negativity and realize the world rotate thanks to hope.

[vooke]

If Dr Ndii (doom) want to be taken seriously, It about time he learnt to be OBJECTIVE AND BALANCED. You cannot predict doom and gloom for years when economy is growing and there are visible maendeleo every where you cast your eyes?

Dr Doom quit Equity after folks there got tired with his doomsday scenario....and look at Equity now...it kicking arse in really BIG BIG way. If Mwangi had listen to Dr Doom, Equity wouldn't have started...but now Equity is generating about 20B kshs every year....to James and his fellow shareholders...every year. Dr Doom still relies on his salary and hand outs.

So Dr Doom should go slow on negativity and realize the world rotate thanks to hope.

There is an obsession with the 'I told you so' among scholars. I think they imagine it looks good telling ignorant fools that you knew all along while they had to wait for it to transpire. On average bad things happen more than good things so they stick to predicting gloom. They are also masters of double speak and they will not come out clear on a specific issue. With them, there is always 'on the other hand'. Think Mutahi Ngunyi BS.

[gout]

His main frustration seems to be lack of data to do his projections (maybe not getting his share of consulting jobs as he used to in Kibaki early days)... as a researcher he ought to have insiders to get him the data he wants... though most of the data is available online these days- african govts easily give out data to World Bank, IFC ... The issue of unavailability of data is is largely political..as he noted policy is all about politics. I had hoped the technocrats CSs would make arguments backed up by data but seems they are clueless with parallel systems calling the shots where it matters 

I agree with him on the need to interrogate these 'flagship' projects, suggestions for comparison (his proposal for a light rail across the coastal beaches needs a private investor to take it up), praise on devolved govts,


About his character; he came out as a guy full of himself ..... at the beginning he says he was 'kidnapped' by Jeff ..ati stopped from having his cup of coffee at Java (at 10 p.m??)...dismissed social media as 'noise'... the bench has never seen such a bore..... Jeff spirit was down and gloom... can only fit in a lecture hall ...even Miguna lights up the bench despite his arrogance

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

His main frustration seems to be lack of data to do his projections (maybe not getting his share of consulting jobs as he used to in Kibaki early days)... as a researcher he ought to have insiders to get him the data he wants... though most of the data is available online these days- african govts easily give out data to World Bank, IFC ... The issue of unavailability of data is is largely political..as he noted policy is all about politics. I had hoped the technocrats CSs would make arguments backed up by data but seems they are clueless with parallel systems calling the shots where it matters 

I agree with him on the need to interrogate these 'flagship' projects, suggestions for comparison (his proposal for a light rail across the coastal beaches needs a private investor to take it up), praise on devolved govts,


About his character; he came out as a guy full of himself ..... at the beginning he says he was 'kidnapped' by Jeff ..ati stopped from having his cup of coffee at Java (at 10 p.m??)...dismissed social media as 'noise'... the bench has never seen such a bore..... Jeff spirit was down and gloom... can only fit in a lecture hall ...even Miguna lights up the bench despite his arrogance

I thought he came across as humble.  But I could see how he might be considered boring on JKL.  JKL is essentially a comedy skit going by the characters that he frequently hosts.  Ndii is weak on canned rhetoric.