RV
I am writing about this because we have the experience. You were witness when I fell out with Kichwa and the others. I sensed that:
1. Raila had gotten drunk with power
2. Had ignored the people and was obsessed with his position
3. He was giving away too much to Kibaki without reference to the party
So when in 2005 he changed slightly, he was able to beat Kibaki in the referendum. Then he started new mistakes
1. He could not just let go of Mudavadi who was a clear liability
2. He became beholden to the advice of certain people who we knew also worked for Kibaki
3. By 2007 he should have rewarded close aides by the votes they brought. Instead he appeared to punish them
4. He ignored the appeal to reward WSR and demote MaDVD.
By late 2008 I sensed trouble. the blunders he made in Sagana were returning to haunt us with a vengeance. We had wanted to be in government for show and sure Kabaki was making sure we were the tourists we wanted to be. Raila ceded away important ministries in Sagana. He gave up on a rotational presidency where he would be President after Kibaki's half term.
So I knew we were done. I said so but those close to Raila continued to believe in the coalition. I was not even the first or among the first to realize we had been had. I had been in denial and reacted with anger whenever the issue was brought up.
Murkomen is WSR's equivalent of our Nyong'o while Kindiki is similar to Raila's Orengo. They will weave him in cobwebs so that even after he has lost, he will remain in denial.
Let me put it this way: WSR decided to slide down the escarpment and Uhuru's people wet the path with water.
I don't know if you remember sliding downhill on banana stems as a young man or if you grew up in town and missed the fun. Nothing speeds it like water poured just behind it to lubricate the slide.