Raila is personally popular in Busia and is in fact a Kingmaker there and Teso. He has been expanding his power in to Bungoma. Kakamega is now fully ODM. He ignored Vihiga in 2013 on wrong advise but still carried it. There are signs that the current leadership in Vihiga may defect to ODM to save their positions. In any event MaDVD is done there kabisa.
Bungoma is in the fold especially if Jubilee continues to harass Wetangula. It is now common knowledge that they either want him out of politics or dead. Such stories on the streets do not exactly harm Wetangula. Jubilee is using Eugene, Kombo, Lusaka and some local money bags.
Eugene is seen as a desperado willing to lick Uhuru's **** to stay in the limelight. Kombo burnt out a long time ago. Lusaka has a hard time making in in the nominations. His attempt to aid the removal of Wetangula failed and he is a marked man. He may make an about turn and join FORD Kenya to survive.
There is a fundamental misunderstanding of the Bukusu which Jubilee will never understand: The do not like being belittled! The appointment of a woman - Wakhungu - to the cabinet to "represent" Luhyas was the worst "insult" that Uhuru could throw their way. Eugene is too little too late and there are some details about the guy that Jubilee has ignored to their peril. In short, he is not likely to pander to the chauvinistic and macho image of the Bukusu. Bukusu take circumcision very seriously. Once a guy avoids it and goes to hospital to be cut problems start. The Late Kijana Wamalwa went through all the stages and proved himself. Any way I watch with amusement as WSR tries to get support there. He forgets the Mt. Elgon issue. As a Kalenjin he has greater chances in Mumias where there are links with the Maasai and Kalenjin dating to centuries ago