Nigel Farage's Reform UK party rising

[Nefertiti]

• Tweet

Latest Tory defector is Nadine Dorries. Her Bedfordshire is part of the regions likely to slip from the Tories any minute.

Reform UK had a whopping 15% of the vote in the 2024 summer elections. But meagre 5 MPs thanks to the FPTP mlolongo system.

With their fringe positions on immigration, etc they are unlikely to form government but I expect the UK 2-party domination to fracture into the far-right vs far-left French-toast. Centrist parties are barely holding onto power in Europe — François Bayrou might be fired next week.

Meantime Jeremy Corbyn's socialist briefcase is polling impressively - better than Reform UK infact! The UK will be pushed into Swedish welfare but social policies will remain deadlocked.

[Nefertiti]

I think electing a black woman as the Tory Leader was a big blunder. Racist Brits will stream to Reform UK until she is deposed. Getting them back might be hard.

Farage talks big policies - about appointing technocrats to cabinet - but nope: the main bone against Kemi B is racism.


Nadine Dorries defects to Reform UK and declares ‘Tory party is dead’
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nadine-dorries-reform-uk-tory-farage-b2820383.html

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Western Politics, especially in countries with an influx of non-white folks like the UK and US will continue experiencing tribal politics with race at the centre of it. In Britain, with a 74% White population, I think far-right racist parties will continue growing. If that number dwindles below 70% of 60%, like in the US, Trump-like or worse politics will emerge very quickly. I think the US slept for too long, letting us Brown folk in, and there is not much they can do going forward unless they cheat hard like Texas Gerrymandering, etc. I like your grasp on UK politics, but I, without any knowledge, can guess where it is headed because YT folks act same anywhere when threatened by others (Trump calls it invasion)
US demographics

Whites: European and Middle Eastern or North African Americans (61.6%) Latest 57%, according to clean data
Black (sub-Saharan Africans) (12.4%)
Multiracial (10.2%)
East, Central and Southeast Asians (4.26%)
South Asians (1.74%)
Indigenous (1.12%)
Pacific Islanders (0.21%)
Some other race (8.42%)

UK Demographics

White British: 74.4%
Asian, Asian British or Asian Welsh: 9.3%
Black, Black British, Caribbean or African: 4.0%
Mixed or Multiple ethnic groups: 2.9%
Other ethnic groups: 2.1%

[Nefertiti]

Mhindi and Sikhs beat blacks to the UK and are very wealthy. They are strictly conservative and have propped the Tories every cycle. That is how you have Rishi Sunak and almost the pointy-nose skunk Su Braverman at No 10. While Nikki Haley or Vivek has zero chance. These racist 'white' Asians are the reason British mzungu feels comfotable and hides his racism behind them. See? - we have a non-white PM unlike Labor!

European politics are decidedly left of the US. More like Canada. Both Reform UK and Your Party (of Jeremy Corbyn) are welfare economic liberals. They part in social/cultural policy - immigration, LGBT, etc. It is taboo and unheard of for a mainstream party to behave like Rethugs under Trump.

Short: the US is sliding to the Far Right. The UK and EU are fracturing - from the Center to Left vs Right.

[Nefertiti]

Superman Musk will not manage to create a 3rd party. While mere mortals Farage and Corbyn do it easily.

[Fairandbalanced]

Not to get off topic but the rise of right wing politics here is the most ridiculous thing ever, blaming their demise on immigrants. I have been here for close to 30yrs and we all saw it happen, some of us who live in majorly rural states in the Midwest saw it coming, Little towns that depended on some factory got demolished when greedy companies moved to China or Mexico, I know one little town that was decimated by John deer, it’s now nothing but Meth and crime. To blame all these on some immigrants is crazy, some of these states like the one I live in is 99% white but has become very red and MAGA. It’s not going to help, they are now on TV in my state complaining that tariffs and going to bankrupt farms and they want government help, it’s socialism for them but they cannot stand it for everyone else.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Not to get off topic but the rise of right wing politics here is the most ridiculous thing ever, blaming their demise on immigrants. I have been here for close to 30yrs and we all saw it happen, some of us who live in majorly rural states in the Midwest saw it coming, Little towns that depended on some factory got demolished when greedy companies moved to China or Mexico, I know one little town that was decimated by John deer, it’s now nothing but Meth and crime. To blame all these on some immigrants is crazy, some of these states like the one I live in is 99% white but has become very red and MAGA. It’s not going to help, they are now on TV in my state complaining that tariffs and going to bankrupt farms and they want government help, it’s socialism for them but they cannot stand it for everyone else.

The US populations are so predictable; they blame a group instead of the real source. Yes, back in the day after civil rights was passed, the same folks were blaming blacks when their economies went south, but now it seems it has been replaced by immigrants. Data show immigrants earn way more, do well, and actually lift the US economy, but to cover for failure on citizens and their corrupt politicians to 'Pull themselves by bootstraps'. They lazily shift the blame. I hear AI will likely replace most jobs by 2030, which means more pain is coming in western countries also because of ageing populations that cannot sustain production, especially when immigration is gutted. Small towns in the US in most states, especially red areas in the Midwest, are dead, and it's partly because of drugs, undereducation, and American greed from American companies to maximise profits by moving to places with cheap labour (nothing to do with immigrants). I think if Africa had sufficient energy for production, US corporations would be flooding there as long as they can pay people starvation wages (100K shillings monthly), OR under $5 an hour. In china they pay about 6-7; in the USA, above $15 that is why John Deere and the rest cannot afford to share profits with rural Americans but would rather move to a place they can pay less for labour to increase their profits.  The US government should make hard policies on greedy corporations and less on humans, especially immigrants.

[Nefertiti]

AI will do very well for welfare states like the Nordics. Even China or Russia will do very well because most wealth is state-owned and fairly distributed.

Here in the wild west expect disaster.