Kalonzo Gachagua coalition. 25+ counties.

[RV Pundit]

Kagame messed it up.
He fcked SADC at wrong time....completely embarrassed South Africa, TZ, Burundi and Malawi
DRC blamed us.
And SADC smarting from defeat did Ruto in.
Its nature of politics.

If you saw voting - you'd have seen Raila lead - then once SADC candidate withdrew - last minute candidate - they went for Djiboutti.

Ruto + Raila just failed in AU the other day - after you repeatedly telling us how the genius WSR has this sewn up.


As for Matiangi vs Melon, if they dont agree, then again we head into runoff against the WSR/RAO ticket. 

[RV Pundit]

He is political neophytes.
He only know Kalonzo has Kambas.
He doesnt know all the 47 tribes have owners and mini owners.
You need to sell your vision to them first.
Of course he was nasty to everyone - and he has no friends - not even in Murima.
Now he is going round with Bantu cousin thing - a Mijikenda cant relate - neither can Luhya.

This very hopeless opposition; They badly Uhuru; who can hopefully resusciate national network;

Rigathi and Kalonzo outside Ukambani and GEMA - have some footing in Kajiado - kwingine ZERO ZERO - maybe Malala and Natembeya & Wamalwa - no Mps.

Siasa ya Kenya is complicated - there are layers.

Even in Mt kenya - Rigathi has to do a radical overthrow - he has no buy in in the leadership - so he has do revolution.

Why would Miji kenda be in an alliance with other bantus? What's the justification?? Again this strategy by RiggyG is set to cause animosity and tribalism on a large scale,

[Tactician]

But you couldn't see this SADC angle even one day to election?

All I am saying is, stop the ad hominem.  Just present your views.  No one has the monopoly of punditry and silliness.

Kagame messed it up.
He fcked SADC at wrong time....completely embarrassed South Africa, TZ, Burundi and Malawi
DRC blamed us.
And SADC smarting from defeat did Ruto in.
Its nature of politics.

If you saw voting - you'd have seen Raila lead - then once SADC candidate withdrew - last minute candidate - they went for Djiboutti.

Ruto + Raila just failed in AU the other day - after you repeatedly telling us how the genius WSR has this sewn up.


As for Matiangi vs Melon, if they dont agree, then again we head into runoff against the WSR/RAO ticket. 

[RV Pundit]

I saw SADC and GOMA - and that is what killed Raila;
I dont see Matiangi.
And that is where we disagree.

Matiangi has a Kalonzo problem. It very simple. Nothing personal.

Been here on this forum for 25yrs - my record speak for itself

But you couldn't see this SADC angle even one day to election?

All I am saying is, stop the ad hominem.  Just present your views.  No one has the monopoly of punditry and silliness.

[Nefertiti]

Poor Raila is cooked either way cause Coast and NFD will also remain with Ruto should he re-join opposition.

Let us see if RiggyG can be the next rock-star politician: after Moi, Raila, Ruto.

Kiambu
Muranga
Nyeri
Kirinyaga
Tharaka Nithi
Meru
Embu
Laikipia
Nyandarua
Nakuru
Nairobi-Kamba Kikuyu Gusii over 50%
Kajiado-Kamba Kikuyu Gusii over 50%
Machakos
Taita Taveta
Kitui
Makueni

OVER 50% Counties.
Gusii
Mombasa/Kwale-GEMA Kamba Mijikenda
Lamu-GEMA Kamba
Nyamira
Isiolo

Toss ups.
If two North Eastern counties join them.
If Natembeya Malala Wamalwa mobilize 40%+ Luhya.

They WIN.

The biggest looser in this power play is ODM.They have lost the Kamba Kisii and luhya swing vote/top up across the country.Its that top up that made them win most seats in Nairobi and coastal areas.ODM becomes a luo affair.Raila is politically useless.

[Nefertiti]

22 counties...not enough.Add two more.

I see 21 listed.
He is counting on 2 more North Eastern and Trans Nzoia (cause Natembeya).
It seems Malala will not deliver Kakamega.

Makes it 24.

Fanciful stuff, main whistle iko mbali.

[Nefertiti]

Tick & tick. Raila 35%, Ruto 35%, RiggyG 22% if he nails Mt Kenya. Kalonzo 8%. Matiang'i 4%.

We are literally just waiting to see if 80yo Raila is running for 6th time. Then we can have MOAS.

FOR NOW -- Ruto-Raila team - no need for elections.

Your brain froze in 2007?
Kibaki was incumbent - got any gov in tribes.
Raila was just consolidating his 35% core - that he stole from Moi - Majimbo/Devolution/KADU.
Ruto was like RiggyG - trying to consolidate kalenjin - and 15yrs - he has major national support.
Each of these two have easily 35% - national support.
It game over if they unite.

Their 2007 45% - 48%  add hiyo 12% - and make it 60% - ideally 65%.

Ati WSR + RAO  = 60%? Ha!

If that was the case, then the 2007 coalition which had RAO + MDVD + WSR would have easily won the election.  Even adding Melon 9% to Rao's 43% percentage in 2007 would not get to 55%.   

For context, once again, to get to anything above 55% in Kenya requires a major political wave enthused with hope, which by definition, is anti-incumbent. 

As for Uhuru's 54% in 2017, that was declared null & void.  Useless for analysis.

[RV Pundit]

Agreed.
Until we figure out Raila game - we have elections.
I cant quite figure out what ODM byzantine gameplan is.
What I know Kalonzo wont deputize anyone in opposition - age is not on his side.
Raila has same age problem
Uhuru is playing his card close - the 3 expert in gov - are his

Hii ingine ya Gen Zs and Matiangi and Gachagua is non-starter

Tick & tick. Raila 35%, Ruto 35%, RiggyG 22% if he nails Mt Kenya. Kalonzo 8%. Matiang'i 4%.

We are literally just waiting to see if 80yo Raila is running for 6th time. Then we can have MOAS.

FOR NOW -- Ruto-Raila team - no need for elections.

[patel]

Where do you get this numbers from ? Mind to break them down by county or tribe. I don't see Raila in mid thirties at best high teens same with Ruto.

Tick & tick. Raila 35%, Ruto 35%, RiggyG 22% if he nails Mt Kenya. Kalonzo 8%. Matiang'i 4%.

We are literally just waiting to see if 80yo Raila is running for 6th time. Then we can have MOAS.

FOR NOW -- Ruto-Raila team - no need for elections.

Your brain froze in 2007?
Kibaki was incumbent - got any gov in tribes.
Raila was just consolidating his 35% core - that he stole from Moi - Majimbo/Devolution/KADU.
Ruto was like RiggyG - trying to consolidate kalenjin - and 15yrs - he has major national support.
Each of these two have easily 35% - national support.
It game over if they unite.

Their 2007 45% - 48%  add hiyo 12% - and make it 60% - ideally 65%.

Ati WSR + RAO  = 60%? Ha!

If that was the case, then the 2007 coalition which had RAO + MDVD + WSR would have easily won the election.  Even adding Melon 9% to Rao's 43% percentage in 2007 would not get to 55%.   

For context, once again, to get to anything above 55% in Kenya requires a major political wave enthused with hope, which by definition, is anti-incumbent. 

As for Uhuru's 54% in 2017, that was declared null & void.  Useless for analysis.

[Nefertiti]

Simple rough math.
By 2019 census GEMA is 22%, Kamba 9%, Gusii 6%.
Raila and Ruto share the rest of the pie.

You can argue about turnout or the fantastic "Gen Z" for Maraga and Omtatah. I am waiting to see this phantom in Mbeere North. 

Where do you get this numbers from ? Mind to break them down by county or tribe. I don't see Raila in mid thirties at best high teens same with Ruto.

Tick & tick. Raila 35%, Ruto 35%, RiggyG 22% if he nails Mt Kenya. Kalonzo 8%. Matiang'i 4%.

We are literally just waiting to see if 80yo Raila is running for 6th time. Then we can have MOAS.

FOR NOW -- Ruto-Raila team - no need for elections.

Your brain froze in 2007?
Kibaki was incumbent - got any gov in tribes.
Raila was just consolidating his 35% core - that he stole from Moi - Majimbo/Devolution/KADU.
Ruto was like RiggyG - trying to consolidate kalenjin - and 15yrs - he has major national support.
Each of these two have easily 35% - national support.
It game over if they unite.

Their 2007 45% - 48%  add hiyo 12% - and make it 60% - ideally 65%.

Ati WSR + RAO  = 60%? Ha!

If that was the case, then the 2007 coalition which had RAO + MDVD + WSR would have easily won the election.  Even adding Melon 9% to Rao's 43% percentage in 2007 would not get to 55%.   

For context, once again, to get to anything above 55% in Kenya requires a major political wave enthused with hope, which by definition, is anti-incumbent. 

As for Uhuru's 54% in 2017, that was declared null & void.  Useless for analysis.