Kenya 2025 medium term like election on 27th Nov by-elections

[RV Pundit]

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Quite good coverage
Should be medium test
Esp on Ruto's KK

[Nefertiti]

Clickbait

[patel]

We need recalls campaign. IeBc should stop hiding behind non sense. People need to put pressure so we can witness peoples power in action.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

I think as long as Raila said he will be in Government until Mid 2027, opposition will always be in disarray. If in 2027 he decided to throw his hat in the ring, whatever united opposition has put forward will go in flames. In the meantime if Raila stay behind for 2027, Ruto will have implemnted 100% of his plan. He now has about solid 5-6 million loyal voters in contact. He will only need to look for few votes by putting final touches on his manifesto as he unload a much bigger and effective tutam plan!

[Nefertiti]

I think as long as Raila said he will be in Government until Mid 2027, opposition will always be in disarray. If in 2027 he decided to throw his hat in the ring, whatever united opposition has put forward will go in flames. In the meantime if Raila stay behind for 2027, Ruto will have implemnted 100% of his plan. He now has about solid 5-6 million loyal voters in contact. He will only need to look for few votes by putting final touches on his manifesto as he unload a much bigger and effective tutam plan!

The longer Raila sticks to Blood-Based the more ODM wears out as we already see in Western. There is in fact very little synergy between ODM and UDA/KK - besides looting - because they have a common base and are natural foes. Outside Luo and Kalenjin every other swing region is shared. The battle will be more vicious in Blood-Based than between Blood-Based and Team RiggyG.

In 3-horse race Team RiggyG has the easiest path to victory.

[Nefertiti]

Here is Uhuru spanner boy Kioni praising RiggyG leadership

Rigathi Gachagua cuts short US trip, returns for by-election campaigns
Thursday, August 14, 2025

Former President Uhuru Kenyatta's Jubilee Party Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni recently acknowledged Gachagua's impact. "It is true that Gachagua appears to be the only man who can batter President Ruto with clarity and efficiency. He is a very important player in the 'Wantam' cause and we appreciate him."

https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/rigathi-gachagua-cuts-short-us-trip-returns-for-by-election-campaigns-5155184

[Nefertiti]

https://publish.twitter.com/?url=

I had a very successful and fulfilling visit to the United States of America with serious engagements with Kenyans in the Diaspora.

I regret being unable to visit the scheduled remaining States since I need to get back home to join our party, @DCP_Democracy, in preparation for…

— Rigathi Gachagua (@rigathi) August 14, 2025

[RV Pundit]

DCP unlikely to win anything outside mbeere

[Nefertiti]

DCP unlikely to win anything outside mbeere

Well this's a rather early surrender. 

Byelections are a litmus test for both oppposition and Blood-Based cohesion. Apart from Kasipul, Ugunja and Baringo senator.

Mbeere (Embu) - DCP vs JB Muturi DP vs Munya PNU vs Mbus. No big problem for KK here.
Malava (Kakamega) - problem for both camps: DCP vs DAP. UDA vs ODM
Banisa (Mandera) - UDA vs ODM. Maybe small problem for DCP vs Jubilee
Magarini (Kwale) - UDA vs ODM

UDA vs ODM zoning might hint to us Raila plans. Obviously ODM can't give UDA space in Western or Coast or NEP if they want to maintain dominance there. This will prove my point - UDA vs ODM non-Gema turf wars. Will desperate Ruto bend over backwards?

Malava will tell us how many Luhya have dumped ODM and Blood-Based.

[RV Pundit]

9 out 12 in Mbeere want to run on UDA
https://www.kbc.co.ke/uda-holds-strategic-retreat-with-9-aspirants-eyeing-mbeere-north-seat/

[Nefertiti]

9 out 12 in Mbeere want to run on UDA
https://www.kbc.co.ke/uda-holds-strategic-retreat-with-9-aspirants-eyeing-mbeere-north-seat/

BIG warchest duhh

[RV Pundit]

Mbeere..
DCP has MCA candidate;
BUs party by Lenny Kivuitu has MCA muscian Karis Netwon.
We wait for UDA candidate.

[Nefertiti]

Mbeere..
DCP has MCA candidate;
BUs party by Lenny Kivuitu has MCA muscian Karis Netwon.
We wait for UDA candidate.

Muturi DP seems to have the popular candidate.
I imagine the MCAs will resign before handing papers to IEBC.

[RV Pundit]

You only resign if you win.
We have BUS, DP, DCP and UDA confirmed running.
We dont know of Jubilee and other parties.
Mt kenya is going to be messy - in next election

Mbeere..
DCP has MCA candidate;
BUs party by Lenny Kivuitu has MCA muscian Karis Netwon.
We wait for UDA candidate.

Muturi DP seems to have the popular candidate.
I imagine the MCAs will resign before handing papers to IEBC.

[Nefertiti]

Yea but the contest is UDA vs DCP. The rest are spoilers.

You only resign if you win.
We have BUS, DP, DCP and UDA confirmed running.
We dont know of Jubilee and other parties.
Mt kenya is going to be messy - in next election

Mbeere..
DCP has MCA candidate;
BUs party by Lenny Kivuitu has MCA muscian Karis Netwon.
We wait for UDA candidate.

Muturi DP seems to have the popular candidate.
I imagine the MCAs will resign before handing papers to IEBC.