Moody downgrade kenya to C - Ruto messed up big time

[RV Pundit]

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Epic failure to on finance bill

He should have fired cabinet instead

Return hiyo finance bill

[Fairandbalanced]

Ruto must go, it’s not his corporation, if it fails, he goes.

[gout]

KRA collected 85% of initial targets. The Laffer curve has peaked.

[KenyanPlato]

I was about to buy 4 million in infrastructure bonds but I chickened out. I realized Kenya could default anytime. I talked a leading bond risk director and he told me to buy only bonds that are with 2 years to maturity..I would be looking for an exit. Default is coming or it will be avoided at a heft cost to kenyan taxpayer

[sema]

Africa needs to have a discussion on blanket debt forgiveness.

Then the imf can focus on creating a icc court to prosecute the corrupt after this or totally shut down their bank accounts in the west.

Africa cannot afford to pay back its debts. This needs to be accepted.

[Georgesoros]

How can you talk about debt forgiveness when gluttony is all over??
Nobody is going to forgive when 15 bedroom homes is the norm

[Nefertiti]

But where did the 70% of GDP debt come from? If not imprudence.

Post-Moi road expansion had very high marginal utility. CBD gridlock-easing bypasses. Mombasa-Nairobi, Nairobi-Nakuru, Nairobi-Thika and such hub funnel opening. Still Kibaki usd mix of debt + asset selloffs. So GDP grew at 7% - revenues expanded 3X - without raising taxes.

Uhurunomics - they thought you just build stuff and the economy grows. 2013 we argued debt should strictly fund productivity ventures such as Nairobi metropol subway with clear, tangible math. Not the loss-minting SGR. Ndii's hard-hitting articles are still online.

Rutonomics - debt-weaning is still salvageable:
%Stop taxing bread and sanitary pads. Maybe resume unga subsidy to assuage GenZ.
%Double down on production subsidies - fertilizer - FIRE Linturi and saboteurs.
%Tax luxury goods - fuel guzzlers - high incomes and wealth eg idle land.
%Sell state corps - reforming them would take time and competence he lacks. Including Safaricom, KQ, etc. Simply raise revenues - including from KICC, public land, etc.

Scrapping the entire Finance Bill 2024 was not so smart and prompted the downgrade. But in lieu deftly raise revenues. It will be wrong and counterproductive to squeeze school-feeding or award-winning NHIS or fertilizer - these are good programs.

Just sell Safaricom - 2B usd cash - line up the assets. Pay debt, don't borrow. Showcase revenues pipeline and prudence... Moody's will be pleased.

Uhuru debt binge was wrong and Ruto is on the right track. Obviously he should cosy up to G7 and reap FDI - that is still the major lever he must pull really hard. But sort GenZ and Moody's.

[Nefertiti]

Epic failure to on finance bill

He should have fired cabinet instead

Return hiyo finance bill

Yes he slept on the politics - the pulpable uprising - so the economics won't work. Reminds one of Kibaki.