Statehouse Panic.Kenyan banks & GOk may to collapse.

[Githunguri]

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https://www.centralbank.go.ke/rates/interbank-rates/
(1) Interbank rates
Nov 7 2023 11.7% September 2022 4.9%
That means banks are not confident lending to each other especially to lower tire banks.

(2) KES USD
15/08/2022 119.3559
07/11/2023 151.2676
Depreciation Over 20%
Increase in Import Prices +-20%
Increase in Foreign Debt Servicing +-30%


(3) Central Bank Rate (CBR) %
03/10/2023   10.50%
27/07/2022   7.505%

(4) Government Cost of Borrowing.
06/11/2023
91 DAYS Amount Offered (Kshs. M) 4,000.00
Bids Received (Kshs. M) 22,480.02
Interest rate 15.1863%
182 DAYS Treasury Bills
Amount Offered (Kshs. M) 10,000.00
Bids Received (Kshs. M) 1,282.40
Interest rate 15.1863%
364 DAYS Treasury Bills
Amount Offered (Kshs. M) 10,000.00
Bids Received (Kshs. M) 914
Interest rate 15.1863%

VS

19/09/2022
91 DAYS Treasury Bills
Amount Offered (Kshs. M) 4,000.00
Bids Received (Kshs. M) 9,936.20
Interest rate 8.950%
182 DAYS Treasury Bills
Amount Offered (Kshs. M) 10,000.00
Bids Received (Kshs. M) 11,391.78
Interest rate 9.615%
364 DAYS Treasury Bills
Amount Offered (Kshs. M) 10,000.00
Bids Received (Kshs. M) 1,957.38
Interest rate 9.913%
Nobody wants to lend to the Kenya government for more than six Months. Everybody wants to Cash out within 90 days at exorbitant rates because of poor exchange rate. What are the investors fearing? If the investors view government as a risk, What about the private corporations?

Nairobi Securities Exchange Performance
Year to date, It has lost   32.89%.If this is one of the indicators of what is happening in the country’s economic situation, It means companies and banks are not making profit.

If the economy collapses, the government will collapse. This is official public data and is clear pointer of the state of affairs in senior government offices.No wonder Ruto is making tens of official trips looking for money. If Raila calls for protests, He will cripple Ruto politically.

Lets start counting days before the revolution.

This is Uganda & Tanzania.TBills average is 9%.Not even prayers can save UDA.
https://www.bou.or.ug/bouwebsite/FinancialMarkets/Closing-TBillsPrices-Yield.html
https://www.bot.go.tz/TBills

[Georgesoros]

Lots of me relatives are seriously struggling.
Policy Policy Policy makes good govt.
The illiterates that Ruto appointed will make things worse.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Using predictive models to see far is a gift. New York Times and Wall Street Journal foresaw this in 2005, when loans were being signed into Kenyan books left, right, and center from 2004. According to the two media giants, then-President Kibaki was to start rolling out shiny roads and injecting capital into the marketplace, and temporarily, Kenyans would see him on good terms (Temporary economic juicing). They warned that if borrowing continues with no prudent management, Kenya would feel the brunt of cheap but expensive loans decades into the future (IF CORRUPTION CONTINUES).
Decades later, we are in the predicted place with the precision of a neurosurgeon. Loans are not bad, but they are catastrophic if not used to build wealth or managed with care. To manage loans, you need working independent institutions run by individuals driven by integrity, which is sadly a rare quality in Kenya. From Tea Girl to CEO, most folks working in offices, especially for the Government of Kenya, are constantly scheming how to make money, and as such, the loans coming to the country over the years disappear in one way or another through the many cracks of development and partnerships with tenderpreneurs, and intermediaries of all kinds. It was the same in the 80s, 90s, and today but seems to worsen as we move forward.

Today, corruption has stemmed from the current regime, but institutions like the Auditor General, Judiciary, etc., are still filled with people on the lower levels who are still scheming. The President is slowly tightening belts, and soon, borrowing or public funds will start working through the economy for the first time. President is making difficult choices that must be made, and as such, folks are squealing (500B has to be sent for Eurobond soon) because debt has to be paid. From 2025 to 2026, Kenyans will be singing TANA fresh with the loudest voices ever when signs of a bright economy and most debts will be paid!

[Georgesoros]

Thats what I told me relatives. They looked at me as if am from Saturn. I left.

[sema]

Jimmy Wanjigi say kenya is screwed for the next 60 years. Is kenya at risk of default is the REAL question now.

[patel]

With all new loans how come the govt is still struggling to meets its obligation e.g NGCDF?