I agree with Dr Ndii - Raila need 60% of GEMA to go toe to toe with Ruto

[RV Pundit]

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He had about 5-6% to get 50% in 2017 - having scored 45%.
Now he has lost about 10-12% of national vote to Ruto - due to attrition in many places - western, coast, ukambani & turkana - after losing weta,madvd,nanok, kingi,muthama,etc - and not picking kalonzo.
And will probably only gain in GUSII - very doubtful NEP pastoralist will vote him.
And Mt kenya - therefore is do or die for him.

Mt kenya when they turn up very well - you're talking 27-28% of national vote - 5% more than their population.

At minimum to get Raila to 50-50 with Ruto he will need 15% out of 25-26% (low turnout of mt kenya without a candidate).

That is 59% of Mt kenya or 60%. That for the battle become 50-50. Raila win therefore is only possible if on the election day the sun rise from west and set in the east - this once happened I hear never.


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[Nefertiti]

[audacityofhope]

Robina,
Nice concise and consistent summary. I have nothing to add other than that rider that in Africa, those opposing govt can't go into an election expecting to win if it is close.