I believe in facts. I have come to accept that Jubilee rigged in North Eastern in 2013 and 2017. Charles Hornsby has provided data that shows at least 50 percent of some const data in NEP were FAKE or MASS rigging...because they were not identified by Biometrics. Nationally 98% of all votes were identified by their biometrics....then suddenly Mandera start posting 90 percent turnout with 90 percent votes for Jubilee/URP.
LEARN TO SPEAK AND LIVE BY FACTS. THEY ARE VERY STUBBORN.
Now 2007 - here are official results
Candidate Party Votes %
Mwai Kibaki Party of National Unity 4,584,721 46.42
Raila Odinga Orange Democratic Movement 4,352,993 44.07
The difference btw Raila and Kibaki was 152,000 votes!!!
The real results - Raila won and beat Kibaki by 200-300k votes - but this is Africa - you cannot beat incumbent with such small %.
This is what Ruto told Raila in Kenya Club and he cried. It was obvious with exit of Kambas from ODM-K - it would be nail bitting. ODM alliance had won 2005 with 58% against 42%. You lose Kambas and you're down to 48%. Raila in MOASS I did was to win by 46-48%. Kibaki was to get 43-44 percent. I believe genuine results Raila won by 46-47 beating Kibaki who had 44-45.
Raila won 2007 but in margins that were razor thin - Kibaki rigged him. Rigging started when Kibaki put all commissioners of his side - bar poor KIVIUTIU.
Rigging happen in Molo, Tharaka Nithi, many other const mostly in Mt Kenya and NEP.
IT WAS BRAZEN KIFUA TYPE RIGGING NEVER SEEN BEFORE IN KENYA AND IT SPARK WAR.For example Molo - Kibaki won by 75K instead of 52K announced in the station.
Molo constituency returning officer provides results showing that Kibaki has 50,145 votes at completion of counting but ECK prepares to announce 75,261 votes for him and provides a computer print out of the increased results. ECK Commission staff deny observers the opportunity to verify information on file, saying the result had not been announced.
Observers at the ECK tallying centre at KICC who take a break from the tallying room to freshen up are denied re-entry. Those who come in to relieve their colleagues on night duty are also barred from entering. Police presence is strong and the atmosphere tense.
Pundit I challenged your above assertion with numbers on a spreadsheet showing clearly by constituency the registered voters, votes cast and valid votes. You put those in front of anyone and a clear picture emerges. I looked at the places where the alleged rigging happened and the trend was not supportive of the claims. Rigging probably occurred but not in the magnitude espoused by most folks. A Raila win was almost impossible because absent the crazy 41 vs 1 mantra Kalonzo took away 800k kamba votes and interesting enough Kibaki had almost 80k votes in ukambani. Kisii almost went entirely to Kibaki, luhyia constituencies with majority Bukusu went for Kibaki, Turkanas 3of the 4 constituencies went for Kibaki and I believe the same happened in North Eastern. So this myth of a Raila win in 2007 is just that a myth. I don't do predictions like you do but give me numbers and I will simplify them in way a 5th grader would understand. I was actually planning on asking you to pm me the data on registration by constituency I start plugging them in as we wait on election day to compare voter turnout and any other relevant data. Common mwananchi can shout but for us we owe our country a greater service by presenting facts much as they may be stubborn.