Charles Hornsby now has Ruto at 52 versus Raila at 48

[RV Pundit]

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He is getting there..my model worse for Ruto is 53 percent and best 55 percent...so now looking like 54 percent versus 45 percent for Raila with wajackoyah at 1 percent http://www.charleshornsby.com/kenya-blog

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

 I think Charles mainly uses the traditional tribal model that may have been accurate before 2022. I believe many Kenyans will move away from tribal voting this time because of the Economy and severe hate for the drunkard! Also, from 2008-to the present, DP made serious investments in churches, madrasas, women groups, Bodabodas, Mama mbogas, Jua Kali folks, Elders, youth groups, and other groups over Kenya. I think those groups that have been touched by DP's billions will defy traditional tribal voting. For instance, these women and many other Kamba women impacted by Ruto through unlimited donations through his Samoei Ruto foundation may vote WIPER down the ballot

Still, on the primary ballot, they will NEVER miss voting the hand that giveth! DP has massive support deep in villages and slums because of the money he donates to the needy yearly.

[RV Pundit]

Yes even online on Twitter n Facebook Ruto is now clear winner now at 58-60 percent..we might be grossly understimating Ruto win. This hustlers revolution sio mchezo.

[Nowayhaha]

Ruto will win by 56%

Uhuru did 54% in 2017 with Kenyattas family tag with him.  Ruto without this burden will peform way better. Increasimg his tally in Coast and Western.
For those who dont know why Uhuru was peformin badly in coast listed to Aisha Jumwa below.

[RV Pundit]

It depends on mt Kenya..how much Raila will chip away and the turnout..so Ruto likely to improve marginally from 2017 because Mt Kenya won't be as committed as they were...so lots of new support will cover the gema deficit
 

[gout]

Going closer to the elections those who were thinking ufool had a magical card are waking up to reality. It will be a white wash. 60%+

[RV Pundit]

For Ruto to score 60 percent - he need to perform at these level - improbable but not impossible

COUNTY   PROJ.TURNOUT   RAILA(%)   RUTO%   OTHERS(%)

COAST - 50-50 with Raila - I have seen some opinion polls saying so - most have Raila with slight edge - so probable.
MOMBASA   55   49   49   2
KWALE   60   35   64   1
KILIFI   60   50   49   1
TANZ RIVER   55   49   50   1
LAMU   60   50   49   1
TAILA TAVETA   55   54   45   1

Northern - Opinion polls swing widly here - some have Ruto ahead - others Raila ahead - I tend to thing Ruto will beat Raila in pastoralist region.
GARISSA   55   45   54   1
WAJIR   55   45   54   1
MANDERA   55   45   54   1
MARSABIT   55   45   54   1
ISIOLO   55   45   54   1

Mt Kenya East - generally seen Mizani & IRS with heavy sample - saying this is possible. Meru is big asterik.
MERU   80   16   83   1
THARAKA-NITHI   80   11   88   1
EMBU   80   11   88   1

Ukambani - this wild card of this election - generally unhappy with Raila treatment of Kalonzo/Sonko - vibe I am getting 50-50 or shock results probable.
KITUI   75   54   45   1
MACHAKOS   75   53   46   1
MAKUENI   75   50   49   1

Mt Kenya West - Central province - opinion polls with large sample are showing 80 versus 20 split - but if Uhuru doesnt do something it could be disaster like this. Maybe - 16% in Nyeri/Nyandarua/Muranga - 26% in Kirinyanga and  Kiambu.

NYANDARUA   80   16   83   1
NYERI   80   16   83   1
KIRINYAGA   80   26   73   1
MURANG'A   80   16   83   1
KIAMBU   80   26   73   1

North Rift - General expect Ruto to do very well including Turkana, West Pokot and of course kalenjin - very likely

TURKANA   60   30   69   1
WEST POKOT   70   19   80   1
SAMBURU   60   45   54   1
TRANS NZOIA   78   36   63   1
UASIN GISHU   83   11   88   1
ELGEYO/MARAKWET   83   5   94   1
NANDI   83   5   94   1
BARINGO   83   10   89   1

Central rift - again Ruto has solid figures here because Kalenjin/Kikuyu makes significant numbers - Maasai are 50-50 split btw Raila and Ruto. So these are solid figures.

LAIKIPIA   75   25   74   1
NAKURU   75   20   78   2
NAROK   70   40   59   1
KAJIADO   70   45   54   1

South Mid West RV - Kipsigis - done deal.

KERICHO   83   5   94   1
BOMET   83   5   94   1

Western - Raila has small edge in Kakamega; MaDVD Maragoli give Ruto small edge in Vihiga; Bungoma is being swept and Busia Raila has a lead.
- Very solid probable figures

KAKAMEGA   68   51   45   4
VIHIGA   68   44   53   3
BUNGOMA   70   23   74   3
BUSIA   65   63   34   3

Luo Nyanza - Solid figures - I expect the two Kuria const to vote mostly Ruto in Migori.

SIAYA   83   97   2   1
KISUMU   83   96   2   2
HOMA BAY   83   97   2   1
MIGORI   83   79   19   2

Gusii - again opinion polls shows these figures are probable.

KISII   65   58   40   2
NYAMIRA   65   53   45   2

Nairobi - this is where I think polls are getting wrong - showing Raila has huge lead - same problem in 2017 and 2013 - and when final results came - it was very close - Raila has 52 versus 48. I think Ruto hustler message appeals most to poor urban and peri-urban - and they are just shy to reveal their intentions to vote Ruto to pollsters.

NAIROBI CITY   70   50   48   2

If these kinds of figures pan out - Ruto will score 60%.

Going closer to the elections those who were thinking ufool had a magical card are waking up to reality. It will be a white wash. 60%+

[gout]

Who have the most demotivated? Hasoras and baba's diehards are fired up! Ufool's supporters are ones likely to sit out of the elections - which side will they affect?

[RV Pundit]

There has to be deliberate turnout game. I think Ruto has something planned for this. There has to be teams combing villages - and rallying them to vote. For Ruto he has to do it in Mt kenya and RV - his core.

 Raila is scrambling to get agents, tallying center and all the stuff because they are waking to find there is no deep state or system.

Who have the most demotivated? Hasoras and baba's diehards are fired up! Ufool's supporters are ones likely to sit out of the elections - which side will they affect?