Quick scan of latest opinion polls show Ruto is doing 40 percent plus of decided votes in Ukambani.
The only exeption is Mizani Africa where Ruto is doing 20% in Ukambani.
So I think worst Ruto will do is 20% - but most likely will do 30% in Ukambani - and the highest is 40% percent.
It doesnt help Raila that Ngilu who has been rejected in Ukambani for doing a terrible job in Kitui is elbowing the harrased Kalonzo and is seen as closer to Raila.
That kind of middle finger that Ngilu and Raila are wagging to Kamba nation will see Ruto going as high as 40% percent.